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Thread: Why Obama Is Likely to Lose in 2012

  1. #1

    Default Why Obama Is Likely to Lose in 2012

    " Even a small drop in the share of black voters would wipe out his winning margin in North Carolina..

    By KARL ROVE
    President Barack Obama is likely to be defeated in 2012. The reason is that he faces four serious threats. The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day. Key voter groups have soured on him. He's defending unpopular policies. And he's made bad strategic decisions.

    Let's start with the economy. Unemployment is at 9.1%, with almost 14 million Americans out of work. Nearly half the jobless have been without work for more than six months. Mr. Obama promised much better, declaring that his February 2009 stimulus would cause unemployment to peak at 8% by the end of summer 2009 and drop to roughly 6.8% today.

    Columnist Peggy Noonan surveys the current crop of GOP candidates.
    .After boasting in June 2010 that "Our economy . . . is now growing at a good clip," he laughingly admitted last week, "Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected." The humor will be lost on most. In Wednesday's Bloomberg poll, Americans believe they are worse off than when Mr. Obama took office by a 44% to 34% margin.

    The last president re-elected with unemployment over 7.2% was FDR in 1936. Ronald Reagan overcame 7.2% unemployment because the rate was dropping dramatically (it had been over 10%) as the economy grew very rapidly in 1983 and 1984. Today, in contrast, the Federal Reserve says growth will be less than 3% this year and less than 3.8% next year, with unemployment between 7.8% and 8.2% by Election Day.

    Mr. Obama also has problems with his base. For example, Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel, and left-wing bloggers at last week's NetRoots conference were angry over Mr. Obama's failure to deliver a leftist utopia. Weak Jewish support could significantly narrow Mr. Obama's margin in states like Florida, while a disappointed left could deprive him of the volunteers so critical to his success in 2008.

    President Obama is now at the mercy of policies and events he has set in motion.
    .Mr. Obama's standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...pinion_LEADTop

    Hmmmmmmm.......

  2. #2

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    Karl Rove, now there's a great source of information!...lol


  3. #3

    Default

    Republicans only win if they can throw elections into the courts, as is their wont.

  4. #4

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    Rove will be wrong.

    The economy is growing at 3%. When he took office is was contracting.
    Inflation is low.
    Obama was handed 9 percent of that 10% unemployment figure.
    He killed OBL.
    He passed signature health care legislation.
    The republicans have a weak field.
    Their top candidate is not Christian.
    Their top candidate is vulnerable to health care attacks for being the same as Obama (for those opposed to reform).
    Obama has reduced overseas forces by about 100,000 troops.
    8 of 10 leading economic indicators are positive.
    He is the incumbent and can boast "experience" this time around.

    Checkmate.

  5. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Rove will be wrong.
    Hope not.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    The economy is growing at 3%. When he took office is was contracting.
    Only based upon Nanny Gubment spending of borrowed dollars.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Inflation is low.
    Only if yer a brain dead kool aid drinker. If the same measures were used as in Jimmy Carter's time the number would be 10%.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Obama was handed 9 percent of that 10% unemployment figure.
    Try seven.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    He killed OBL.
    Yes he did.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    He passed signature health care legislation.
    Nasty Nancy passed the health care legislation. Obamaprompter leads from the rear.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    The republicans have a weak field.
    It is as good as any we have had since 1960 (less Ronald Reagan).

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Their top candidate is not Christian.
    So what?

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Their top candidate is vulnerable to health care attacks for being the same as Obama (for those opposed to reform).
    10-4; it is still early.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Obama has reduced overseas forces by about 100,000 troops.
    Only in Iraq, Afghanistan has 64,000 more troops then in January of 2009.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    8 of 10 leading economic indicators are positive.
    Almost all are the result of Nanny Gubment's actions over the last two years.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    He is the incumbent and can boast "experience" this time around.
    True, he now has proven incompetence insead of zero experience.

    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Checkmate.
    Methinks Rove has a better feel at this point then you do $.25!!!


  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    Republicans only win if they can throw elections into the courts, as is their wont.
    The New York Times even admitted that in the recounts Bush won. That is a tired line you are trotting out there.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Mac McFadden's Avatar
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    Default

    Three words that guarantee President Obama's re-election:

    The Republiklan Nominee



    Mac

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac McFadden
    Three words that guarantee President Obama's re-election:

    The Republiklan Nominee


    Mac

    Fortunately yer political instincts are in the terlet, along with yer sense of history, n' yer upside down claims as to where yer silly Commie ideology cums from.

    Pfffffffft, sorry a little sneaker....



  9. #9
    Banned cottonbroker1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tutonic
    He killed OBL.
    .
    and with his bare hands, I might add....

  10. #10
    Senior Member anatta's Avatar
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    All the REpubs need is ana acceptable alternative -the trick for that party is getting the acceptable ( to the centrist Independent voter) alternative the actual Repub nomination.

    The general wiil be a referendum on Obama, but the primarys for the Repubs could put up a fringe fo their nominee.

    Huntsman or Romney might stand a chance in the general - but the Republican base calls them RINOS'

    Nominate Bachman, etc. and they are going nowhere.


    Once disentangled, remain in the blissful state of ultimate tanglementlessness.

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