It's official: Recession since Dec. '07

[Moby]

George W. Bush and Fox News have all been telling us that things were fine and even attacking people for thinking otherwise.

I wonder if Rush can still blame Obama for causing this recession a year ago. I'm sure he will but how stupid do his listeners have to be to believe him?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?postversion=2008120112

The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most Americans already knew: the downturn has been going on for some time.

See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: December 1, 2008: 3:27 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy .

The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.

The NBER said that the deterioration in the labor market throughout 2008 was one key reason why it decided to state that the recession began last year.

Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November.

The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said.

In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public.

Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession.

This downturn longer than most
The NBER did not give any reasons or causes of the recession. But it is widely accepted that the housing downturn, which started in 2006, is a primary cause of the broader economic malaise.

The fall of housing prices from peak levels reached earlier this decade cut deeply into home building and home purchases. This also caused a sharp rise in mortgage foreclosures, which in turn resulted in losses of hundreds of billions of dollars among the nation's leading banks and a tightening of credit.

The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's.

The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, and only two of the 10 previous post-Depression downturns lasted as long as a full year, according to the NBER.

In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy.

"The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus," he said. "Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation."

President-elect Obama's transition team did not have an immediate comment on the recession announcement. But other top Democrats said this is further proof of the need for another economic stimulus package, which Obama has advocated.

"With rising costs of living, rising unemployment, record foreclosures and depleted savings, we must do more to help families make ends meet," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a statement. "With the cooperation of our Republican colleagues, we intend to send a plan to the White House as soon as possible following President-elect Obama's inauguration next month."

How long will it go?
Nonetheless, several economists said the real concern is that there is no end in sight for the downturn.

Some suggested that the best case scenario for the economy is that it would reach bottom in the second quarter of 2009. And even if that happens, that would still make this recession the longest since the Great Depression.

Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said the only good news for the economy is that some of the steps already taken by the government earlier this year could start to spur growth soon. For example, he said interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which started in September 2007, "should be working their magic any day now."

In February, Congress passed a $170 billion tax rebate meant to stimulate the economy. But that only boosted GDP during the second quarter.

The financial market and credit crisis worsened during this summer, prompting Congress, the Treasury Department and the Fed to pump trillions of dollars into the economy through a variety of programs, including a $700 billion bailout of banks and Wall Street firms and hundreds of billions of lending by the Fed to major companies and lenders.

But Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, said that at this point, the only solution for the recession is time.

"All the hand waving and real cash that policymakers are throwing at the problem won't change the fact we're stuck in this nasty recession," he said. "The ultimate cure of a recession is letting it run its course."

Achuthan's research firm tracks weekly leading economic indicators that are supposed to signal a change in direction for the economy four or five months ahead of time. Those indicators are continuing to fall at a record pace.

Still, he said he's not worried about the current recession turning into a depression, as many Americans fear.

"Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession," he said. "There's lots of gloom, but we don't see doom."

[kres24GT]

Get used to it, big government is making things worse and worse.

[Dale escondido]

And the markets reacted with a 700 point loss.
I guess now the panic is justified, but we got big gov on the way to save big business and everything will be fine.
Maybe when they run out of money( its not even our money anymore as they just print it) and they stop trying to fix things well have a chance to improve?

[Cat slave]

All this as jobs are outsourced by the thousands daily. Didnt anyone get a
clue before the **** hit the fan? Duh! How hard is it to figure out? Perot
was exactly right about the "giant sucking sound" and that was years ago.
The grim reaper of silent factories, terminated workers, and stagnant growth
of business looms over the American dream. More like a nightmare and were
gonna have to live it.

Thanks loads you lying sobs, may you rot in hell.

Now on a lighter note..........uh, uh, I couldnt think of one. Sorry.:o

But the savior will be prez and all should be right with the world. Can we
breathe easy now? Somehow I dont think so.

[Frankg]

What Recession?

An editorial from the New York Sun (http://www2.nysun.com/article/75630):
The common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as we reminded readers in a January 24, 2008, editorial, "Recession Looms?"

Well, despite the determination of politicians in Washington to deliver a "stimulus" to counter a recession, despite the persistence of the huffing and puffing from Paul Krugman about how the economy is about to go into a recession, despite the harrumphing of even the likes of Alan Greenspan, somehow the recession is proving elusive.

That is certainly the indication from the Department of Commerce, which yesterday announced that the gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2008 grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 0.6%.

That's a real rate of growth, which means that the economy grew faster than inflation, which was itself not negligible. It was the same real growth rate that the government measured in the fourth quarter of 2007.


We'd like to see stronger growth, like, say, in the third quarter of 2003, when the economy started to get the feel of the Bush tax cuts and grew at an astonishing seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 7.5%. Or the year that began in April of 1983 and ended in March of 1984, when President Reagan's supply-side measures began to work their incentives and when the American economy grew consistently at a supercharged rate of more than 8%.

But two consecutive quarters of 0.6% growth is not bad, when measured against, say, the fourth quarter of 1990 and the first quarter of 1991, when real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 3% and 2%. That was negative growth, not merely slow growth. Another genuinely bad patch was in spring and summer of 1980. In the second quarter of 1980, growth was negative 7.8%.

What we're seeing now — a national unemployment rate of 5.1% in March, a stock market whose indexes are up nearly 5% for the month of April — does not a recession make. In the early 1980s, we saw double-digit unemployment rates. In the early 1990s, the unemployment rate reached 7.8%. A 5.1% national unemployment rate is not a recession.

There may yet be a recession, but Mr. Krugman & Co. will have to wait a bit more.

This is not to minimize the pain or hardship felt by those who have been affected by the job losses on Wall Street, who face losing their homes in a foreclosure proceeding, or who have been affected by the flight of manufacturing jobs overseas. But the American economy and the capitalist system and open markets are remarkably robust.

President Bush has now presided over 26 consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth, beginning immediately after the quarter that included the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001.

President Reagan was credited with the "Seven Fat Years" in a book of that name by Robert Bartley that derived its title from Genesis. President Bush has two more quarters to go to make it to 28 quarters of growth, which would be seven fat years of his own and leave responsibility for protecting the Bush boom to whomever America elects as the next president
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/05/what_recession.html

[bairdi]

What Recession?

An editorial from the New York Sun (http://www2.nysun.com/article/75630):
The common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as we reminded readers in a January 24, 2008, editorial, "Recession Looms?"

Well, despite the determination of politicians in Washington to deliver a "stimulus" to counter a recession, despite the persistence of the huffing and puffing from Paul Krugman about how the economy is about to go into a recession, despite the harrumphing of even the likes of Alan Greenspan, somehow the recession is proving elusive.

That is certainly the indication from the Department of Commerce, which yesterday announced that the gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2008 grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 0.6%.

That's a real rate of growth, which means that the economy grew faster than inflation, which was itself not negligible. It was the same real growth rate that the government measured in the fourth quarter of 2007.


We'd like to see stronger growth, like, say, in the third quarter of 2003, when the economy started to get the feel of the Bush tax cuts and grew at an astonishing seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 7.5%. Or the year that began in April of 1983 and ended in March of 1984, when President Reagan's supply-side measures began to work their incentives and when the American economy grew consistently at a supercharged rate of more than 8%.

But two consecutive quarters of 0.6% growth is not bad, when measured against, say, the fourth quarter of 1990 and the first quarter of 1991, when real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 3% and 2%. That was negative growth, not merely slow growth. Another genuinely bad patch was in spring and summer of 1980. In the second quarter of 1980, growth was negative 7.8%.

What we're seeing now — a national unemployment rate of 5.1% in March, a stock market whose indexes are up nearly 5% for the month of April — does not a recession make. In the early 1980s, we saw double-digit unemployment rates. In the early 1990s, the unemployment rate reached 7.8%. A 5.1% national unemployment rate is not a recession.

There may yet be a recession, but Mr. Krugman & Co. will have to wait a bit more.

This is not to minimize the pain or hardship felt by those who have been affected by the job losses on Wall Street, who face losing their homes in a foreclosure proceeding, or who have been affected by the flight of manufacturing jobs overseas. But the American economy and the capitalist system and open markets are remarkably robust.

President Bush has now presided over 26 consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth, beginning immediately after the quarter that included the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001.

President Reagan was credited with the "Seven Fat Years" in a book of that name by Robert Bartley that derived its title from Genesis. President Bush has two more quarters to go to make it to 28 quarters of growth, which would be seven fat years of his own and leave responsibility for protecting the Bush boom to whomever America elects as the next president
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/05/what_recession.html

Frankie.........thanks for posting this article from May showing how the right wing media was in denial of what everyone else could see. As of today....it's officially a recession.

[ROdger Right]

we were in recession with the dow at 14000, nice.
that report is total bullshit and was made to try and stem fears that this recession will take years to get over so by saying it started earlier hopefully it can get done sooner

[Moby]

What Recession?
I guess if it's an editorial than it must be right. Who cares that the numbers show unemployment has increased by 55% so far. Who cares that we've lost over 1,000,000 jobs this year. Who cares that we've taken on $5 Trillion in debt.

If it's on the Internet it must be true.

[Binky]

All this as jobs are outsourced by the thousands daily. Didnt anyone get a
clue before the **** hit the fan? Duh! How hard is it to figure out? Perot
was exactly right about the "giant sucking sound" and that was years ago.
The grim reaper of silent factories, terminated workers, and stagnant growth
of business looms over the American dream. More like a nightmare and were
gonna have to live it.

Thanks loads you lying sobs, may you rot in hell.

Now on a lighter note..........uh, uh, I couldnt think of one. Sorry.:o

But the savior will be prez and all should be right with the world. Can we
breathe easy now? Somehow I dont think so.


I have to agree with you Cat.....I was beginning to think I was the only one that had seen this coming over the years. It seems America has had deft ears and blind eyes to what was going on around it. Now we're going to be paying for it for years to come. Hopefully we'll be able to repair the damage.

Obama reminds me of the old cartoon character of the 1950's and 1960's, "Mighty Mouse." In which he has come to "save the day." Well, now we play the waiting game and see whether or not he can and or does.