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View Full Version : Early-voting trends appear to favor Barack Obama


LadyMod at scam.com
10-25-2008, 08:41 AM
I wouldn't have mentioned this except at work yesterday it came up several times.

Shame on you Republicans, not getting out there and voting for your Man. Where is your patriotism?




Early-voting trends appear to favor Barack Obama (http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-earlyvoting25-2008oct25,0,6474497.story)

Reporting from Washington -- Record numbers of voters across the nation are casting ballots before election day, including high proportions of Democrats and African Americans in some of the battleground states in what appears to be a promising sign for Barack Obama.
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A surprise is the makeup of the early voters, election experts said. In past campaign seasons, Republicans have used early voting to their advantage, mobilizing a slice of the electorate that typically skews their way.

Yet a look at voters in a handful of crucial states suggests that Obama is turning out his base in numbers that surpass those of Republican John McCain.

"Historically, we've seen that early voters are older, they tend to be white, have higher incomes and are better educated," said Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

"And that group of people tends to trend Republican. Now we have a mirror image in this campaign."

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Early voting continues in many states, so the numbers can change. But Obama seems well-positioned in several Republican-leaning states that have the potential to broaden his path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

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Florida, a huge prize with 27 electoral votes, offers a mixed picture. More than 1.5 million Floridians have already cast ballots. Democrats hold a tiny advantage: 42.7% to 42.6%. Republicans now hold a 16-point edge in absentee balloting, whereas Democrats have a 23-point lead among people showing up at the voting booths.

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In Bush's two successful campaigns for president, he won the early vote both times, according to experts on preelection-day voting.

Examining the "demographic profile of early voters in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, we're seeing a larger percentage of Democrats than one might expect," said George Mason University's Michael McDonald, who specializes in voter turnout.

"We're seeing a larger share of African Americans than we would expect. These points taken as a whole do tell us indeed that the people who've voted so far are more likely to be Obama supporters than McCain supporters."


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disrupter
10-25-2008, 08:45 AM
They aren't allowed to reveal the early vote count are they? That could distort the election.

I hope this is some kind of exit polling or something like it.

People who are planning to vote for whomever has an early lead, may decide they don't need to bother, because it is already covered, potentially flipping the election.

I like early voting, BUT,

I think any actual tabulations of it must be held in absolute confidence until EVERYONE has voted at the end of the day of the election.

disrupter
10-25-2008, 08:49 AM
With actual reporting of partial returns,

In theory you could be guessing who voted how,
because if you voted early & it was more favorable to 'x' then you are likely to have voted for 'x'.

It sort of runs counter to the idea of a secret ballot.

Binky
10-25-2008, 08:58 AM
Well, since it isn't over until it's over, there's a chance either could win. However, as it looks now, it could be Osama.

I'm voting for the one that is apt to give us a better economy. I'd rather have more money in my pocket than what I've had over the last eight long, agonizing years.

disrupter
10-25-2008, 09:04 AM
You, Binky, are voting Obama?

Binky
10-25-2008, 09:16 AM
You, Binky, are voting Obama?



Unfortunately, I suppose I will, since he could be better for the econ. I sure don't want to vote period as both candidates stink. P....U.... :(

disrupter
10-25-2008, 09:17 AM
So Palin wasn't a winning point?