The polls are wrong

[Frankg]

Gallup and New Coke
Posted by DJ Drummond
Published: October 21, 2008 - 1:39 PM

The polls are wrong this year, very wrong.

I have been saying this for months, and I have backed up my claim with both statistical and anecdoctal support.

The claims I have made have inspired some, caused others to laugh in derision, and brought others to test their assumptions and revisit the hard data.

Along the way, there have been a lot of questions about how and why the polls could be wrong.

The most common complaint, is that for all of the polls to be wrong, there would need to be some sort of conspiracy, or else an incredibly stupid decision made across the board.

Well, I am not a big believer in conspiracies, but I do think that the polling groups have fallen into a groupthink condition.

I wrote earlier about the fact that of the major polling groups handling national and state polls, all of them are based deep in pro-Liberal, anti-Conservative territories.

Here's that list of headquarters again, just to punch in that point again:

Poll Headquarters

ABC News 77 W 66th St, #13, New York City, New York

CBS News 524 W 57th St, New York City, New York

FOX News 1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York City, New York

Gallup 901 F St NW, Washington DC

Hotline 88 Pine St, 32nd floor, New York City, New York

IBD 12655 Beatrice St. Los Angeles, California

The Los Angeles Times 202 W 1st St, Los Angeles California

Marist Institute 3399 North Rd, Poughkeepsie, New Jersey York

Mason-Dixon 1250 Connnecticut Ave #200, Washington DC

Newsweek 251 W 57th St, New York City, New York

The New York Times 1 City Hall, New York City, New York

Pew Research Center 1615 L St NW, #700, Washington DC

Quinnipiac 275 Mount Carmel Ave., Hamden Connecticut

Rasmussen 625 Cookman, #2, Asbury Park, New Jersey

Reuters 3 Times Square, New York City, New York

Survey USA 15 Bloomfield Ave., Verona New Jersey

TIPP 690 Kinderkamack Rd, Oradell, New Jersey

Washington Post 1150 15th St NW, Washington DC

Zogby 901 Broad St, Utica, New York

As I wrote then, it needs noting that all of the major polling organizations are based in locations where liberals are strongest and conservatives weakest, where 'democrat' and 'republican' take on meanings wildly different from the rest of the country.

The people making the executive decisions at these polls, most likely including the wording and order of polling questions, whether to focus on urban or suburban areas, the weighting of political affiliation, and the definition of 'likely voter', are most likely in regular contact and association with the most liberal factions of politics.

It does not mean that they have deliberately skewed their decisions to support Obama, but it is obvious that there is an apparent conflict of interest in their process modality.
http://wizbangblog.com/ (http://wizbangblog.com/)

[Hog Trash]

Gallup and New Coke
Posted by DJ Drummond
Published: October 21, 2008 - 1:39 PM

The polls are wrong this year, very wrong.

I have been saying this for months, and I have backed up my claim with both statistical and anecdoctal support.
I too, have had my doubts and suspicions about the polls!?!?!?I'm thinking the polls are somehow flawed, and Obama is not now, nor ever has been in the lead.

Something just doesn't seem quite right.

I think about how close Obama and Hillary were in the primaries.

He didn't win the nomination by a landslide and didn't have the full support of his own Party.

And now they want us to believe that the majority of the country has somehow switched to Obama.

This just don't jive?!

Do you suppose I'm just wishful thinking?http://www.dcjunkies.com/showthread.php?p=67865#post67865

[Independent Harry]

lol...the desperation writings...its funny to see em start to twitch when shit doesn't go their way...

[asroc]

The premise that polling companies only poll the cities in which they are physically based is incorrect. Most of them list their methodology if you'd like to take the time to read them

I take Gallup pretty seriously, as they were correct leading up to the 2004 election, Zogby was off as were a number of other polls.

Also, the Clinton machine was obviously a much, much stronger opponent than McCain and the RNC.

[Moby]

The premise that polling companies only poll the cities in which they are physically based is incorrect. Most of them list their methodology if you'd like to take the time to read them
Shhh........ These two aren't intelligent enough to understand how communications works in the 21st century

[Bill]

Frankie and Hogtrash, this is what you gotta be doin!

Put some of these on your neighbors windshields.

That'll show those hussein-lovin pollsters!

http://www.boingboing.net/images/x_2008/obamaflyer.jpg

[Smurf-Herder]

The major polls are all over the place.

Anywhere from a dead tie to an 11 point difference for Obama.

It's very weird for such a range between the major polsters.

[Jesse Hemingway]

75% of Americans are feed up with this republican bullshit I guess all you have left is jesus you righties better start preying like a mother fucker:lmao2: :lmao2: :lmao2:

[Smurf-Herder]

75% of Americans are feed up with this republican bullshit I guess all you have left is jesus you righties better start preying like a mother fucker:lmao2: :lmao2: :lmao2:


Anybody else notice this aspect of the Obama campaign?

I think it's rather significant.

Most Obama supporters hate Jesus and Christians.

[Moby]

Most Obama supporters hate Jesus and Christians.
Interesting. I've never met anyone that hates Jesus or Christians. Do you have any evidence to support your false and hateful statement?

[Moby]

The major polls are all over the place.

Anywhere from a dead tie to an 11 point difference for Obama.

It's very weird for such a range between the major polsters.
Well polls don't mean much really but if you look at the polls that are close they all receive money from 1 certain billionaire in some form or another. I know you'll just attack that statement but if you look at the facts you'll find that it's true.

[Smurf-Herder]

Well polls don't mean much really but if you look at the polls that are close they all receive money from 1 certain billionaire in some form or another. I know you'll just attack that statement but if you look at the facts you'll find that it's true.


So then, why should anyone here put stock in any poll?

Yet they have and will.

(BTW, I think your new avatar is childish)

[Moby]

So then, why should anyone here put stock in any poll?

Yet they have and will.
Did you follow the money for the polls that are close? ;)

[Moby]

(BTW, I think your new avatar is childish)
During an intellectual debate, the most important debate of her life, one that the nation depends on, she was winking, crinkling her nose, pointing and saying, "You betcha". Don't you think that was being just a little childish?

It's not a gaff as that would be rude. This is a practiced and well rehearsed facial expression that she uses to gain supporters of middle age male voters. Sure Alaskan sports fans found her annoying and not capable of presenting sports news but many GOP supporters love this motion of hers.

Dude, she went to 5 colleges to a degree in communications and learn moves like this. You should be proud.

If you have another picture of her winking during the debate that is more flattering I will be happy to use it.

[Sharon]

The major polls are all over the place.

Anywhere from a dead tie to an 11 point difference for Obama.

It's very weird for such a range between the major polsters.

Like the liberal media, the polls lie too. If osama steals his way into our white house it will be a shame. But that would be the only way he could get in there. Then he would ruin America with the help of his close friends, Ayers, Wright, hamas, Hezbolla, al qaeda, chavez, and the rest of the scum he chooses to associate with.

[Smurf-Herder]

Interesting. I've never met anyone that hates Jesus or Christians. Do you have any evidence to support your false and hateful statement?

I just have to laugh.

Try doing searches of the board over the past few months. I saw the same thing on the other board I was on.

It goes with the mindset.

[Smurf-Herder]

During an intellectual debate, the most important debate of her life, one that the nation depends on, she was winking, crinkling her nose, pointing and saying, "You betcha". Don't you think that was being just a little childish?

It's not a gaff as that would be rude. This is a practiced and well rehearsed facial expression that she uses to gain supporters of middle age male voters. Sure Alaskan sports fans found her annoying and not capable of presenting sports news but many GOP supporters love this motion of hers.

Dude, she went to 5 colleges to a degree in communications and learn moves like this. You should be proud.

If you have another picture of her winking during the debate that is more flattering I will be happy to use it.


Before I ever saw her speak, I read that close friends consider her a character.

So?

It's not like Bush smiling while talking about Bin Laden.

Deal with it. She's a type-A personality and a woman.

[Smurf-Herder]

This article is right on topic, here.

Polls apart: Why polls vary on presidential race

By ALAN FRAM – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama is galloping away with the presidential race. Or maybe he has a modest lead. Or maybe he and John McCain are neck and neck.

Confusing? Sure, thanks to the dueling results of recent major polls.

In the past week, most surveys have shown Democrat Obama with a significant national lead over Republican McCain. Focusing on "likely voters" — as many polling organizations prefer this close to Election Day — an ABC News-Washington Post survey showed Obama leading by 11 percentage points. A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll had the same margin, while the nonpartisan Pew Research Center gave Obama a 14-point edge.

But others had the race much closer. CNN-Opinion Research detected an Obama lead of 5 points. The George Washington University Battleground Poll had Obama up by 4 points. And an Associated Press-GfK poll showed Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent — in effect, a tie.

How can this be? Some questions and answers about why the polls differ.

Q: Don't pollsters simply ask questions, tally the answers and report them?

A: No. After finishing their interviews — usually with about 1,000 people, sometimes more — they adjust the answers to make sure they reflect Census Bureau data on the population like gender, age, education and race. For example, if the proportion of women interviewed is smaller than their actual share of the country's population, their answers are given more "weight" to balance that out. But some pollsters make these adjustments differently than others. And while most polling organizations including the AP do not modify the responses to reflect some recent tally of how many Democrats, Republicans and independents there are, some do.

Q: Are those the only changes made?

A: No. As Election Day nears, polling organizations like to narrow their samples to people who say they are registered voters. They often narrow them further to those they consider likely voters. That's because in a country where barely more than half of eligible voters usually show up for presidential elections, pollsters want their polls to reflect the views of those likeliest to vote.

Q: Is that hard to do?

A: Quite hard, since no one will truly know who will vote on Election Day until that day is over. In fact, virtually every polling organization has its own way of determining who likely voters are.

Like many polling organizations, the AP asks several questions about how often people have voted in the past and how likely they are to vote this year, and those who score highest are considered likely voters.

Q: Why is this such a problem?

A: Because nobody is 100 percent sure how to do this properly. And the challenge is being compounded this year because many think Obama's candidacy could spark higher turnout than usual from certain voters, including young voters and minorities. The question pollsters face is whether, and how, to adjust their tests for likely voters to reflect this.

In identifying likely voters, the AP does not build in an assumption of higher turnout by blacks or young voters. Pew Director Andrew Kohut says that reflecting exceptionally heavy African-American turnout in the Democratic primaries, Pew's model of likely voters now shows blacks as 12 percent of voters, compared to 9 percent in 2004.

Underscoring the uncertainty, the Gallup Poll is using two versions of likely voters this year — a traditional one that asks about peoples' past voting behavior and their current voting intentions; and an expanded one that only looks at how intent they are on voting this year, which would tend to include more new voters.

Q: What else might cause differences?

A: The groups pollsters randomly choose to interview are bound to differ from each other, and sometimes do significantly.

Every poll has a margin of sampling error, usually around 3 percentage points for 1,000 people. That means the results of a poll of 1,000 people should fall within 3 points of the results you would expect had the pollster instead interviewed the entire population of the U.S. But — and this is important — the results are expected to be that accurate only 95 percent of the time. That means that one time in 20, pollsters expect to interview a group whose views are not that close to the overall population's views.

Q: Are the differences among polls this year that unusual?

A: Not wildly, but that doesn't make them less noticeable. There's a big difference between a race that's tied in the AP poll, and Pew's 14-point Obama lead. But because of each poll's margin of error, those differences may be a bit less — or more — than meet the eye.

That's because each poll's margin of sampling error should really be applied to the support for each candidate, not the gap between them.

Take the AP poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Obama's 44 percent support is likely between 48 percent and 40 percent. McCain's 43 percent is probably between 47 percent and 39 percent.

When support for candidates is measured in ranges like that, some polls' findings could overlap — or grow worse.

Q: Are people always willing to tell pollsters who they're supporting for president?

A: No, and that's another possible source of discrepancies. Some polling organizations gently prod people who initially say they're undecided for a presidential preference, others do it more vigorously. The AP's poll, for example, found 9 percent of likely voters were undecided, while the ABC-Post survey had 2 percent.

AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jJ4ZOTu5ts8dFaEjqQZkT_4i5xkwD940ERMG0