How High Will The Bail Out Go?

[Moby]

I'm sure we won't know for years but it's starting now. For years many people were predicting that it would be 2 to 3 times that of the S&L crisis, which was a $150 Billion bail out but I think this is going to pass the $450 Billion mark and far more then I ever expected.

[Scumbag]

I'm sure we won't know for years but it's starting now. For years many people were predicting that it would be 2 to 3 times that of the S&L crisis, which was a $150 Billion bail out but I think this is going to pass the $450 Billion mark and far more then I ever expected.
Considering that the two main players account for most of the 12 trillion dollar mortgage market, I think a mere trillion is a drop in the bucket.

[Scumbag]

The washup for the bailout will be a devalued dollar, discounted exports and soaring gas prices. As you sow, so shall you reap!

[disrupter]

Between them they own or guarantee 5 Trillion in mortgages,

So with all those smart guys in Washington & Wall Street running it,

it shouldn't cost more than 10 Trillion dollars, 15 at the outside.

[disrupter]

Honestly i could see them bailing it out & then it starts collapsing again,
i think this will be an extended problem.

[Scumbag]

Honestly i could see them bailing it out & then it starts collapsing again,
i think this will be an extended problem.
Nup. The markets will respond. The housing market usually recovers confidence fairly quickly.(although you would'nt think so at the moment)

Great time to buy, me thinks!

Doesn't get any lower than rock bottom!

Buy, buy, buy!

:thumbsup:

[disrupter]

The entire global economy is sagging,
Europe that was strong is now weakening.

Maybe other people have confidence in the Fed & Wall Street,
but i personally don't. There is not, as of yet, any chaos theory that would really describe human interactions & economics.
I think they are just farting out of their asses,
Pretenders & fools.

the power of the economy comes from the grass roots. Big static dinosaurs are a drag on it, but that is all these anachronisms & crooks understand.

They are spending all their energy trying to save a dying dinosaur(s) rather than letting it fall & let the hordes feed off of it.

They fail to grasp minimalism & subtlety. They got no elegance.

they are inorganic.

[Scumbag]

The entire global economy is sagging,
Europe that was strong is now weakening.

Maybe other people have confidence in the Fed & Wall Street,
but i personally don't. There is not, as of yet, any chaos theory that would really describe human interactions & economics.
I think they are just farting out of their asses,
Pretenders & fools.

the power of the economy comes from the grass roots. Big static dinosaurs are a drag on it, but that is all these anachronisms & crooks understand.

They are spending all their energy trying to save a dying dinosaur(s) rather than letting it fall & let the hordes feed off of it.

They fail to grasp minimalism & subtlety. They got no elegance.

they are inorganic.
The "entire global economy is sagging"?

I think you are farting out of your keyboard!

Get some sleep!

[disrupter]

European Economic Recession Ahead?
European economies are seeing slower growth in world trade, a possibly overvalued euro, and other challenges
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2008/pi2008095_404602.htm

[Scumbag]

European Economic Recession Ahead?
European economies are seeing slower growth in world trade, a possibly overvalued euro, and other challenges
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2008/pi2008095_404602.htm
Pure speculation!
The S&P is renowned as a bearer of sad tidings.
Every time there is a down-turn in the economy, doomsayers call it the end of life as we know it and then, poof, all of a sudden we are in clover again.

How does that happen?

Maybe the rank and file should realize that there are forces in play that they have absolutely no idea about and that they would be far better off gettting in line and marching with the rest of us rather than pretending they have the intelligence to understand how the cogs mesh!

[disrupter]

WTF are you talking about dink-brain?
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the
Eurozone contracted at a 0.8% annual rate
in the second quarter. Additionally, the July survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services dropped to its lowest level since 2001.

Meanwhile, consumer price
inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 4.1%
in the 12 months to July, its highest level since the introduction of the single currency in 1999. Inflation also accelerated in the United Kingdom to 4.4% year-on-year (3.8% in June)http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2008/pi2008095_404602.htm

This has ALREADY happened.
the downturn is here, the only question is will it continue into an actual recession for Europe.

You must be on some incredible drugs.
Please tell me what they are.
the pain of watching dumb americans decide their presidency is too painful for me to stand, sober. lol

omg, HEAVY sigh.

[Dale escondido]

WTF are you talking about dink-brain?
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2008/pi2008095_404602.htm

This has ALREADY happened.
the downturn is here, the only question is will it continue into an actual recession for Europe.

You must be on some incredible drugs.
Please tell me what they are.
the pain of watching dumb americans decide their presidency is too painful for me to stand, sober. lol

omg, HEAVY sigh.

You didnt even mention the asian downturn.
Since they own a large chunk of the debt and the failure of the bailout affects them persomally it doesnt matter what it costs, well borrow it from them ha ha.
The market loves this now, give them a few weeks and watch how government runs business and they will soon be in tears.

[Scumbag]

WTF are you talking about dink-brain?
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2008/pi2008095_404602.htm

This has ALREADY happened.
the downturn is here, the only question is will it continue into an actual recession for Europe.

You must be on some incredible drugs.
Please tell me what they are.
the pain of watching dumb americans decide their presidency is too painful for me to stand, sober. lol

omg, HEAVY sigh.
One contraction in the euro zone since 1999 and, oh shit, Europe is going down the toilet and headed for a recession????

BTW your .08% is an annual expansion if the actual shrinkage of 0.2% for the quarter continues for a whole year and it seem that, at least as far as the Deutsche Bank is concerned, we are at fault! At least the figures are spot on! This from a report in Feb '08. https://www.dws-investments.com/EN/docs/market-insight/PROD0000000000221110.pdf

The US slowdown will subtract about half a percentage point from European growth and higher oil prices might take away another ¼ of a
percentage point. These numbers are the result of model simulations, which
obviously cannot pick up the financial ramifications of the current subprime crisis.

Come back when the euro zone experiences 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth, then we can discuss economic recession.

Oh, and just for the record, there are plenty of economies that would be dancing in the street if their inflation rate was only 4.1%.

[Independent Harry]

One contraction in the euro zone since 1999 and, oh shit, Europe is going down the toilet and headed for a recession????

BTW your .08% is an annual expansion if the actual shrinkage of 0.2% for the quarter continues for a whole year and it seem that, at least as far as the Deutsche Bank is concerned, we are at fault! At least the figures are spot on! This from a report in Feb '08. https://www.dws-investments.com/EN/docs/market-insight/PROD0000000000221110.pdf



Come back when the euro zone experiences 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth, then we can discuss economic recession.

Oh, and just for the record, there are plenty of economies that would be dancing in the street if their inflation rate was only 4.1%.

You seem to be defending the policies of this admninstration and agree with tax payer bailouts? Am I correct in that thinking?

[disrupter]

I am not saying Europe is in a recession, but it is in a Downturn instead of the expansion it has been in.

There doesn't seem to be any engine of growth pulling the world economy out of a slump. China/Asia is strongly connected to Europe & the US, but it might keep chugging along, although more slowly.

I know the difference between down & up & technical labels of 'recession' just tell the extent of the turn.

I don't really blame anyone in particular, except for the grossly lax mortgage origination banking [presumably?] limited to the US.

I guess the rest of us are guilty of believing in the hype instead of crunching the numbers, but these crooked bankers made a point of hiding & obscuring number, or more often hadn't even crunched them themselves.

[tomc]

now that its coming out of the tax payers pocket its going into 300 to 500 billion maybe even more.its going to be a speculators holiday at our expence.

[Scumbag]

You seem to be defending the policies of this admninstration and agree with tax payer bailouts? Am I correct in that thinking?
Not so much defending the policies, rather considering what the alternatives are. I do agree with the bailout,though.

I would like to see the majority of the bailout coming from increased corporate and wealth taxes only I feel we (consumers) will eventually have to pay, anyway, so it makes little difference!

[Dale escondido]

This is more about keeping home values up rather than helping anyone.
If the government doesnt keep the illusion of value in place their whole scheme comes apart.
Since the only source of income is us, they have to keep us a little fat.

[Scumbag]

This is more about keeping home values up rather than helping anyone.
If the government doesnt keep the illusion of value in place their whole scheme comes apart.
Since the only source of income is us, they have to keep us a little fat.
Not sure I follow your line of thinking, there.

Values are market driven, based on supply v demand. The government does'nt regulate home values.

If the mortgage originators had kept to the rules (The main one being don't lend money to people who can't afford the repayments) this whole situation would not have ocurred. Subprime lending, by it's own nature, is only useful to those who cannot afford the repayments. It's a calculated risk for the lenders that an acceptable % of loans will end up in default and unfortunately, this time, the downturn in the economy has caught the lenders out.

This could only happen in a super-heated market...Wait 'til prices hit bottom!

[Dale escondido]

Not sure I follow your line of thinking, there.

Values are market driven, based on supply v demand. The government does'nt regulate home values.

If the mortgage originators had kept to the rules (The main one being don't lend money to people who can't afford the repayments) this whole situation would not have ocurred. Subprime lending, by it's own nature, is only useful to those who cannot afford the repayments. It's a calculated risk for the lenders that an acceptable % of loans will end up in default and unfortunately, this time, the downturn in the economy has caught the lenders out.

This could only happen in a super-heated market...Wait 'til prices hit bottom!

The way I see it is that so many people, who have good credit and are good accounts have also been put at risk by using equity they have aquired thru the housing bubble to say buy another house, start a business or even invest in some time consuming investment.
We know that a certain percentage is doomed no matter what.
A few can be saved with some help. Maybe a decent number.
But the price declines caused by foreclosured properties surrounding an area will depress beyond normal supply and demand.
I see the falling prices as the real basis for government help as it will increase the problem to include those who wouldnt have normally been swept up into the speculative atmosphere.

[disrupter]

Maybe this will signal the beginning of the collapse of the US Government,

which may be a blessing in disguise.

Sometimes the radical solution is the only workable one.

[twocanpete]

We have reached the end of the Ponzi Scheme. Go to my blog and do a search, I have been talking about, and predicting this for months! The idiots who run our nation and our economy have destroyed the social contract with Americans. How on earth can you expect a person to make a 33 year commitment toward house payments when you won't even give him a 33 day commitment for a job!

http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/

[Dale escondido]

We will just keep plugging the holes as they appear.
We will just keep borrowing money as long as we can.
We will keep sending money to poorer nation in the world.
Any run of the mill economist will tell you all the reasons this stuff will work.
As soon as the economy rebounds it will all go away.
Dont be a naysayer. Its bad for voodoo economics.
Only positive thoughts help.

[Scumbag]

The way I see it is that so many people, who have good credit and are good accounts have also been put at risk by using equity they have aquired thru the housing bubble to say buy another house, start a business or even invest in some time consuming investment.
We know that a certain percentage is doomed no matter what.
A few can be saved with some help. Maybe a decent number.
But the price declines caused by foreclosured properties surrounding an area will depress beyond normal supply and demand.
I see the falling prices as the real basis for government help as it will increase the problem to include those who wouldnt have normally been swept up into the speculative atmosphere.
Excellent points and I have no doubt that many are using the equity in their property portfolios to do the things you mentioned. Hell, I even did it myself but I'm not suffering because of it. Quite the contrary.

I still feel that the people who will suffer most (in the long term) from this debacle will be the young ones who, when house prices were getting out of their reach, were convinced that by borrowing beyond their means, they would be able to catch up due to increased equity due to rising prices.

Sadly, as has been proven, this is not a viable plan!

[Dale escondido]

The young are definitly paying the price for our lifestyles being perpetuated by voodoo economics.
One more economic upturn, another bubble with no end and all the mistakes of bad fiscal policy are overturned.
Hell were burdening future kids so far out we wont even have to face them ,ever.

[Scumbag]

The young are definitly paying the price for our lifestyles.......................
No, we paid the price for our lifestyles. The young ones will have to do the same. It's the way things are!

[Dale escondido]

No, we paid the price for our lifestyles. The young ones will have to do the same. It's the way things are!

I assume you intend on living long enough to pay back all the debt accumulated to keep us living a lifestyle we cant afford?
But the reason the young are struggling is because we are sucking the value out of exchange and exspecting them to pick up the tab.
I firmly believe in our system and it works when fiscal responsibilty is applied.
Hard work and strong currency fixes everything.
Kinda old fashioned.

[Scumbag]

I assume you intend on living long enough to pay back all the debt accumulated to keep us living a lifestyle we cant afford?
But the reason the young are struggling is because we are sucking the value out of exchange and exspecting them to pick up the tab.
I firmly believe in our system and it works when fiscal responsibilty is applied.
Hard work and strong currency fixes everything.
Kinda old fashioned.
I expect you are young, yourself. I can see no other reason for you attempting to hand me a guilt trip!

If so, it does'nt surprise me that you would expect to have everything handed to you on a platter.

I can afford my lifestyle because I worked hard for it.

Do you think I worked hard all my life so I could pave the way for the next generation or the one after that?

Fuck that!

You get what you get out of life by earning it. Nothing more, nothing less!

[disrupter]

You 'earned' your lifestyle by robbing the next generation of its economic prosperity?

you are intellectually bankrupt.

Ka-ching!

busted!

[Dale escondido]

I expect you are young, yourself. I can see no other reason for you attempting to hand me a guilt trip!

If so, it does'nt surprise me that you would expect to have everything handed to you on a platter.

I can afford my lifestyle because I worked hard for it.

Do you think I worked hard all my life so I could pave the way for the next generation or the one after that?

Fuck that!

You get what you get out of life by earning it. Nothing more, nothing less!

I retired in 91 after selling a business in Los Angeles. At 42 years old
Traveled for 7 years till I got bored of it and then tried raising cattle to keep busy.
I bought another business out of boredom and work 12 hour days.
I dont know anything else, it is definitly abberated I am sure.
That doesnt mean I cant apply the principals of the only thing I know ,business and the practical spending formula to government and know the outcome.
When things are this out of wack and we dont think were feeling it now its because we are passing the problem on.

[Scumbag]

You 'earned' your lifestyle by robbing the next generation of its economic prosperity?

you are intellectually bankrupt.

Ka-ching!

busted!
And you earned yours by sittng on your hands and whining about how tough life is instead of getting off your butt and bettering yourself.

Sux to be you, huh?

[Scumbag]

I retired in 91 after selling a business in Los Angeles. At 42 years old
Traveled for 7 years till I got bored of it and then tried raising cattle to keep busy.
I bought another business out of boredom and work 12 hour days.
I dont know anything else, it is definitly abberated I am sure.
That doesnt mean I cant apply the principals of the only thing I know ,business and the practical spending formula to government and know the outcome.
When things are this out of wack and we dont think were feeling it now its because we are passing the problem on.
You retired at 42 and traveled for 7 years?

Did you know you were robbing Disrupter of his economic future while you were gallivanting around the world enjoying your prosperity?

You should be ashamed! The least you could have done was to give him financial stability before you left so he didn't have to worry about working towards it himself.


Shame, shame, shame!

:disbelief:

[Dale escondido]

What I am pointing out is that the debt that we are accumilating means hard work wont be enough to be successful anymore here.
I have worked in the corp scene and been around start-ups and watched the magic they do with mirrors.
I have never been that smart and only suceed thru hard work and basic principals.
The reason i am getting upset is I see the same opportunity disappearing for our youth. Government is not appling any sound formulas anymore, and they cant declare bankrupcy like poorly ran businesss do, they dont have to as they have a neverending financial source,,, US.
I am sure when you were young, a decent job got you a house, a car or two
and some free time to enjoy them.
Now husband and wife work long hours to get by. The hidden cost of bad government and corrupt business lives in the artificial high costs of all goods.

[Scumbag]

I am sure when you were young, a decent job got you a house, a car or two
and some free time to enjoy them.
Now husband and wife work long hours to get by. The hidden cost of bad government and corrupt business lives in the artificial high costs of all goods.
No, actually my wife and I both worked very hard for a long time to get where we are and we didn't rely on or whine about how the government or past generations ripped us off.

Now some punk is telling me I robbed him of his economic prosperity.

I see Disrupter as a loser, defeated by his attitude that the world owes him a living without having to pay for it.

In the REAL world you make your own way and if you can't look after yourself you are a weakling. Weaklings get stepped on. Fact of life!

:)

[Dale escondido]

No, actually my wife and I both worked very hard for a long time to get where we are and we didn't rely on or whine about how the government or past generations ripped us off.

Now some punk is telling me I robbed him of his economic prosperity.

I see Disrupter as a loser, defeated by his attitude that the world owes him a living without having to pay for it.

In the REAL world you make your own way and if you can't look after yourself you are a weakling. Weaklings get stepped on. Fact of life!

:)

I am not trying to defend anyone here.
I believe most people with any success worked very hard for it.
Thats what makes America great, you can work and achieve or sit under a bridge and panhandle for food.
What I am upset about is the lack of responsibility of those who run business and government and their ever continueing scheme to spend beyond their means.
We let those who run our nation practice creative economic principals that rely on perfect scenerios to work.
We as indivuals know we have to be more responsible to cover the bad times that will come.
When governemnet trys to catch all those who fail with social programs, or what your seeing with the banking industry now it dilutes the worth of work and puts unfair survival pressure on newcomers to the work world.
True success can still be achieved, in fact I find it easier to make money in bad times.
But the average guy trying to survive by punching a clock is watching the value of showing up each day deminishing each day and wondering why no matter how hard they try it seems downhill.