Naval Strike Group in Position Off Lebanon

[Smurf-Herder]

US Navy strike group responds to increasing Lebanon, Syria tension
http://www.janes.com/news/defence/naval/jdw/jdw080307_1_n.shtml

"US Navy (USN) expeditionary strike group has been deployed to the eastern Mediterranean in the wake of increasing tensions between Lebanon and Syria.

The strike group is led by the Tarawa-class amphibious assault ship USS Nassau and includes the Austin-class amphibious transport dock USS Nashville, the Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship USS Ashland, the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Bulkeley and USS Ross. The six vessels left the United States on 19 and 20 February, the navy said.

The destroyer USS Cole - which was seriously damaged in a terrorist attack in Aden in 2000 - is already in international waters off the coast of Lebanon, accompanied by two refuelling ships.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the United States' Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Nassau group would operate in the region "for a while" and that the deployment signals the navy "is engaged" in "a very important part of the world".

Image: The expeditionary strike group, led by USS Nassau, heads for the eastern Mediterranean (US Navy) "

Three Aegis ships with Tomahawks and SM-3s, and three large amphibious ships (they forgot the USS Albany, a Tomahawk-carrying attack sub was part of the group; and the Cole had left for the Gulf).

I think they're planning for a possible evacuation of US and foreign nationals in the near future.

[Smurf-Herder]

The backstory:

Arab leaders threaten to boycott Damascus summit
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/07/africa/syria.php

"BEIRUT: Several Arab leaders say they may boycott the annual Arab summit meeting scheduled for this month in Damascus because of anger at Syria over its role in Lebanon and ongoing links to Iran.

The measures are part of an intensified campaign against Syria that comes alongside similar moves by the United States, which recently added several new financial sanctions on Syria and sent warships to cruise off the Lebanese coast - a gesture aimed directly at the Syrian government.

"There's a new initiative to completely isolate Syria and weaken its destructive influence in Lebanon," said an adviser to the Saudi government who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

"We're not going to pull them away from Iran by talking to them; we're going to take them away from Iran by making them feel the pressure and making them understand that this time it's as real as it can get."

Syria's role in Lebanon is rooted in its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, which it views as crucial weapons against Israel and the West. But most Arab nations, led by Sunni Muslims, view Shiite Iran as a dangerous and implacable foe, and they appear to have given up on luring Syria back into the Arab fold through diplomacy.

In the past week, Saudi Arabia has recalled its ambassador from Damascus and urged all its citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible, indicating that it believes any Saudi here is now a target for Syria or its allies. Last month the Saudi government deposited another $1 billion into Lebanon's central bank in a show of support for Lebanon's government.

The conflict has grown increasingly bitter, with officials of Saudi Arabia and Egypt - with Jordan on board - complaining that Syria is deliberately prolonging the political vacuum in Lebanon through its support for Hezbollah, which opposes the Western-backed government majority. Lebanon has been without a president since late November."

[Moby]

I remember reading about this when they first left the USA. I really hope that they're not planning an attack on Iran. This is another possible sign.

[Smurf-Herder]

I remember reading about this when they first left the USA. I really hope that they're not planning an attack on Iran. This is another possible sign.

No, this is geared to lebanon. I think the amphibious ships are to pull people out fast, like foreign nationals and the 14,000 Multi-national peacekeepers. And the Aegis ships are to defend against incoming threats and missiles coming out of Lebanon; and respond in kind.

Another piece fits this that was recently in the news:

Israeli daily says Iran flies arms through Turkey to Syria for shipment to Hizbullah
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=89660

Iran Arming Hezbollah Via Turkey
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/333543.aspx

"The missiles arrive in Syria first and then are shipped to Lebanon.

In May 2007, Turkish officials confiscated an Iranian weapons shipment, which included 300 rockets, being shipped by train and registered as cleaning materials.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon sent an update on Resolution 1701, which included Israel's assessment that Hezbollah has rearmed with "tens of thousands of long-range missiles and some 20,000 shorter-range rockets."

According to Beiditz's source, Iran has shipped missiles with a 185-mile range, which when fired from Beirut can reach the southern Israeli city of Dimona. The general said these missiles are more accurate than Hezbollah's cache of 155-mile range rockets, plus they can carry a larger payload.

In his briefing, General Beiditz showed the EU ambassadors video footage taken during intelligence-gathering flights, which showed missiles being smuggled from Syria into Lebanon."

Iran: We supplied Zelzal-2 to Hizbullah
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1154525807791

Fearing Hezbullah surprise, IDF activates Patriot anti-missile battery
http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Security/12647.htm


Hezbollah now has a large arsenal of highly accurate Iranian Zelzal-2 missiles which carry a 1200 lb. warhead, that can reach Israel's nuclear facilities in Dimona.

[Smurf-Herder]

Watch Lebanon, not Iran.

Iran will use Hezbollah as a proxy, for plausible deniability and redirection, while gaining regional control; probably in coordination with Hamas, as a second front to spread defenses. But longer range missiles cannot be used without direct permission of IRGC officers in Lebanon.

The scenario was in the news a while back. Iran and Syria using Hezbollah to stage a coup in Lebanon; within the chaos of a conflict with Israel.

[Bill]

If Israel couldn't stop the hezbos on the ground, I'd be real surprised if america could stop them from the sea.

It would be interesting if people start shooting.

If it's a political takeover, what would justify the americans pulling the trigger?

It looks a bit like empty bluster.

Did Lebanon ask America to provide protection? I hadn't heard that.

[Smurf-Herder]

If Israel couldn't stop the hezbos on the ground, I'd be real surprised if america could stop them from the sea.

It would be interesting if people start shooting.

If it's a political takeover, what would justify the americans pulling the trigger?

It looks a bit like empty bluster.

Did Lebanon ask America to provide protection? I hadn't heard that.

Nobody said anything about stopping them. Nobody said anything about protection for the Lebanese government. Nothing is official, other than we are there, just over the horizon; in case we're needed.

[Bill]

So, model a firing scenario for me, if you have any thoughts on that.

[Smurf-Herder]

So, model a firing scenario for me, if you have any thoughts on that.

It's hard to say, not knowing what's going on inside Lebanon in detail.

But basically, similar to what happened in 2006; only more extensive. Hamas in Gaza escalates attacks, luring Israel into launching a massive ground assault. Hezbollah joins in, in solidarity with Hamas. This then escalates. The Lebanese government and it's forces are forced into choosing between Hezbollah, who brought this on them, or Israel who is bombing their country in retaliation against Hezbollah. In the process, the ruling parties lose credibility and political pull with the people; and the government loses functionality in the chaos. At a certain point the Multi-national force would be forced to withdraw, or be attacked.

In all of this there's the potential for US ships taking out Hezbollah positions attacking troops from the Multi-national force and firing long-range missiles into Israel; as well as shooting down missiles. In this case, there's the potential for direct Syrian involvement, as a pretext to try and regain the Golan; with possible direct Iranian involvement if Syria is engaged.

Nobody can say exactly how it's going to go down, though. But however it does, Hezbollah is basically left with the strongest military force in Lebanon; supported by Syria and Iran.

Hezbollah will soon destroy Israel, says Iran Guards
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSBLA83745220080218

Hamas wages Iran’s proxy war on Israel
A Hamas leader admits hundreds of his fighters have travelled to Tehran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3512014.ece

I'll be surprised if things don't pop before summer is over; at the latest. Of course, having a US Strike Force right there may be enough to deter their plans. Which I'm sure is our first course of action - just being there to change the equation. Just taking on Israel and non-combatant peacekeepers is one thing. But involving the US directly may give them second thoughts.

[Bill]

That all seems predicated on israel attacking the hezbos to stop them from taking over lebonan.

since the hezbos want to form a shia givernment for lebonan, they have no interest in israel right now. It would be foolish for them to attack israel when their real enemy at the moment are the rich christians in lebonan.

But israel might want to send forces into lebonan to stop the shia from taking it over.

So, you're saying we're there to help israel attack the hezbos.

Sounds about right.

If I were the hezbos, I'd stick to the ground game - maybe fire short range missiles on christian positions.

The hezbo ground game has proven pretty effective in the past.

Really, all they have to do is wait. Lebonan is about to collapse into their hands.

The christians are outnumbered, and pretty much boxed in.

Syria might not be happy about having a shia government in lebonan.

Whatever. Middle east war is inevitable. Too many people, too little fresh water.

[Smurf-Herder]

That all seems predicated on israel attacking the hezbos to stop them from taking over lebonan.

since the hezbos want to form a shia givernment for lebonan, they have no interest in israel right now. It would be foolish for them to attack israel when their real enemy at the moment are the rich christians in lebonan.

But israel might want to send forces into lebonan to stop the shia from taking it over.

So, you're saying we're there to help israel attack the hezbos.

Sounds about right.

If I were the hezbos, I'd stick to the ground game - maybe fire short range missiles on christian positions.

The hezbo ground game has proven pretty effective in the past.

Really, all they have to do is wait. Lebonan is about to collapse into their hands.

The christians are outnumbered, and pretty much boxed in.

Syria might not be happy about having a shia government in lebonan.

Whatever. Middle east war is inevitable. Too many people, too little fresh water.

After 2006, I think Israel will not want to go into Lebanon on the ground. Too many losses and international pressure to allow Lebanon it's ability to establish a solid government. Not to mention 14,000 foreign peackeepers in their way.

My opinion on Hezbollah is, it would be foolish to directly attempt a military coup. In the long-run they want the hearts and minds of the population; and not look like they're an Iranian proxy "taking over". And "being the defender" of Lebanon against an Israeli attack, which they instigate under the guise of solidarity with the Palestinians, is the perfect mechanism for achieving this.

As I've said, Israel doesn't want another 2006 debacle; and there's international pressure to not interfere in Lebanon. And Hezbollah knows the 14,000 peackeepers (monitors that do virtually nothing) give them an extremely complicated buffer against an Israeli ground invasion.

Syria has been building up near the Lebanese border and the Golan over the past couple years. At this point, they could launch ground assault into both areas with virtually no warning. Looking at it on a broader scale, for the most part, I belive now our ships are there to deter Syria from intervening on Hezbollah's side; and creating a much broader war.

The stories below are from 2006 and 2007. Forces have not been withdrawn. They're just sitting there, waiting for tensions to die down (like they have in the past few months); while they build up Hezbollah's arsenal.

Hundreds of Syrian missiles poised for possible first strike against Israel
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/me_syria_07_26.asp

Syrian Tanks Amassing on Israel-Syrian Border
http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/17090.html

Syrian Military Buildup Worries Israel
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3131606

European Lebanon Force Is Cast as Shield for Iranian-Hizballah Military Buildup
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1205

"The force dubbed by Kofi Annan UNIFIL-2 has no operational plan to enforce the UN arms embargo which would entail stemming the heavy flow of Iranian arms shipments entering Lebanon day by day along two Syrian tracks.

Long, heavily laden convoys are heading from the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus to the Lebanese Beqaa Valley, bringing Hizballah its first heavy missiles - the Russian-made Scud-B adapted by Iran as Shahab-1, which has a one-ton warhead and range of 350 km. A second track brings 3-5 Iranian air cargoes every day to Syrian air bases near the Lebanese border.

Neither does the European force, to be led until February 2007 by France, plan to hinder the operation of the Iranian Revolutionary Forces command center ensconced since last week on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border. The four Iranian generals at this center have taken direct command of Hizballah, which has the distinction of being the first terrorist group ever to be supplied by a UN member-state with the armaments of a national army."

Syria Threatens Israel on Golan Heights
http://www.nysun.com/article/58009

"The Baath official said a new purported guerilla group, called the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights, has been training and is ready to launch attacks in the Golan.

"More and more of our units have undergone intensive trainings starting at 6 a.m. and finishing late into the evening. If the need arises, we are ready for a war," the official said.

The official said Syria "learned from the Hezbollah experience last summer and we can have hundreds of missiles hitting Tel Aviv that will overwhelm Israel's anti-missile batteries."

"Israeli security officials confirmed the stepped-up military presence of Syrian troops deployed along the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. The security officials noted the movement of Syrian Scud missiles near the border with Israel and said Syria recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

The Syrian army has improved its fortifications, according to the Israeli security officials, and has received modern, Russian-made anti-tank missiles similar to the missiles that devastated Israeli tanks during the last Lebanon war, causing the highest number of Israeli troop casualties during 34 days of conflict. Syria also received from Russia advanced anti-aircraft missiles.

The security officials said any conflict with Syria could spiral into a larger war involving Hezbollah along Israel's northern border and Palestinian Arab terror groups launching attacks from Gaza in the south and the West Bank toward the center of Israel.

The officials said Syria has stepped up the flow of weapons, including rockets, being shipped from the Syrian border to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia."



BTW, Syria is ruled by the Alawite minority, a branch of the Shia. Look it up.

[Smurf-Herder]

In addition to all that, here's a story linking Syria to the Gaza situation:

Egypt: Syria may be thwarting cease-fire'
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1204546429586&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

"According to the officials, Egypt is waiting to see whether Hamas was responsible for the attack, because if it turns out that it was, it will be a sign that they are determined to continue their attacks, something that would render talks of a case-fire useless.

Meanwhile, the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat reported Saturday that Syria may be attempting to deflect international scrutiny of its actions in Lebanon by thwarting Egyptian attempts to moderate a cease-fire.

According to the report, a senior Egyptian official told the paper that "Syria may be interested in focusing international attention on the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, instead of the situation in Lebanon."

"The current escalation on the Palestinian front is in the interest of the Syrians," the official added. "Indeed the continuation of this situation may embarrass leaders in the Arab world, and force them to go back on their decision to send low-level officials to the Arab summit, which is set to take place in Damascus."

The official then went on to insinuate that Syria may have had a hand in the attack.

"Senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders who are able to decide on a cease-fire were in Syria [at the time], and we won't forget that when we hear who was behind the terror attack," he said."

[Smurf-Herder]

I just found these stories, that also seem to show a connection with outside influence in inciting Israel to act, and a pretext for Hezbollah and Hamas to escalate. Stirring the pot with proxies, for a justification of a braoder conflict.

Eight arrested in probe of Jewish seminary attack
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/08/israel.school.massacre/

"A Jerusalem police spokesman identified the shooter Friday as Ala Abu Dehein from East Jerusalem's Jabel Mukaber neighborhood.

He worked as a driver and held an identity card that Israel issues to Palestinians who live in East Jerusalem.

The attack was planned and conceived by the Free Men of Galilee, an operation with purported ties to Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, sources in Gaza said.

The information was provided to CNN amid news reports that Hamas, the Palestinian movement that runs Gaza, claimed responsibility for the attack.

But the sources said that Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza are not claiming responsibility for the attack and that the Hamas military wing says it had nothing to do with it.

The sources said the shooter was a member of Hamas but received his marching orders for the action from outside Gaza and the West Bank. Hezbollah is based in Lebanon, and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal is exiled in Syria."

Report: Widow of slain Hezbollah terrorist blames Syria for killing
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/958004.html

"The Syrian traitors are responsible for his death," Army Radio quoted Mughniyah's widow as telling a press conference in Tehran. "Damascus' refusal to allow Iran to investigate the incident is further proof," she said.

According to the report, rumors abounded in the months prior to Mughniyah's death regarding a rift between himself and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The rumors were that Mughniyah was attempting to take over command of the militant organization"