Obama wins Iowa

[disrupter]

Obama, Huckabee Wins Iowa Caucuses
3 Jan 08
DES MOINES, Iowa — Sen. Barack Obama, bidding to become the nation's first black president, captured the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, opening test in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mike Huckabee rode a wave of support from evangelical Christians to victory in the Republican caucuses.

Obama, 46 and a first-term senator from Illinois, eased past a high-powered field that included Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, the former first lady, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee.

Among Republicans, Huckabee, a preacher turned politician, handily defeated Mitt Romney despite being outspent by tens of millions of dollars, and deciding in the campaign's final days to scrap television commercials that would have assailed the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama, who campaigned as an apostle of change in Washington, was gaining 36 percent support among Democrats., Edwards, who ran promising to battle the special interests in the capital, and Clinton, who stressed her experience, both were drawing about 30 percent.

Huckabee's triumph was more robust. He was winning 34 percent support, compared to 25 percent for Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain battled for third place.

Romney sought to frame his defeat as something less than that, saying he had trailed Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, by more than 20 points a few weeks ago. "I've been pleased that I've been able to make up ground and I intend to keep making up ground, not just here but across the country," he said.

The words were brave, but already, his strategy of bankrolling a methodical campaign in hopes of winning the first two states was in tatters _ and a rejuvenated McCain was tied with him in the polls in next-up New Hampshire.

Iowans rendered their judgments in meetings at 1,781 precincts from Adel to Zwingle, in schools, firehouses and community centers where the candidates themselves could not follow.

In interviews as they entered the caucuses, more than half of all the Republicans said they were either born-again or evangelical Christians, and they liked Huckabee more than any of his rivals. Romney led handily among the balance of the Iowa Republican voters, according to the survey.

About half the Democratic caucus-goers said a candidate's ability to bring about needed change was the most important factor as they made up their minds, according to the entrance interviews by The Associated Press and the television networks. Change was Obama's calling card in the arduous campaign for Iowa's backing. Fewer voters cited experience, which Clinton said was her strong suit, or a candidate's chance of capturing the White House or ability to care about people like the voters themselves.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080103/caucus-rdp/

I think i can shift from Edwards to Obama more easily than going from Dean to Kerry. Sorry Kerry, but you are such a stuffed shirt.

[disrupter]

Ron Paul came in one point behind McCain at 11 & 12 respectively,
while Giuliani came in at 2.
Rudy is another paramilitary nut case i will be happy to see if he can be eliminated from the race.

I notice Ron Paul gets no mention in the race.
That seems rather arbitrary when the mention McCain who is only one point above his showing.

[Bill]

Interesting.

The mainstreamer polls were right about Obama, but wrong about Huck.

And Clinton and Edwards about even.

But, the differences between the three of them are not large. A ten percent range.

Okay, Iowa is over, NH is next.

JANUARY 2008
January 3: Iowa (caucuses)
January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
January 8: New Hampshire (primary)
January 15: Michigan
January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (R primary)
January 26: South Carolina (D primary)
January 29: Florida
FEBRUARY 2008
February 1: Maine (R)
February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R)
February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington, Wisconsin
MARCH 2008
March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
March 8: Wyoming (D)
March 11: Mississippi
APRIL 2008
April 22: Pennsylvania
MAY 2008
May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
May 27: Idaho (R)
JUNE 2008
June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
AUGUST 2008
August 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado
SEPTEMBER 2008
September 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St.
Paul, Minnesota

http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/a/prez_primary.htm

[disrupter]

Politics,
not quite satisfying,
but vastly better than the NeoCon engineering & theft of elections & public sanity.

If Edwards can pull off a win anytime before the big blow out on Feb 5th i still may contribute to him. Still pending.

I will caucus for him in my own state [for my very first time] in any event,
if he doesn't have enough support my second will be Obama.

[Bill]

I gather that, as the numbers turn out, it was Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton. Altho it's possoble those numbers are premature.

Interestingly, Clinton's pro-war stance seems to have hurt her, while Huck's anti-war stance seems to have helped him.

I wouldn't have thought the war would have had such a strong effect, considering the media's support of the surge's apparent success.

That's really a striking phenomenon and something to remember when countering the attacks of the neocon reds.

[Bill]

Wow, imagine what it would be like if it really was Obama vs Huckabee?

Talk about a polarizing election - white "golly gee" christian vs black/interracial hyper-urban intellectual.

I think Huck would probably win.

[asroc]

Wow, imagine what it would be like if it really was Obama vs Huckabee?

Talk about a polarizing election - white "golly gee" christian vs black/interracial hyper-urban intellectual.

I think Huck would probably win.

The bigger picture is the state of the parties, which gives a better view of a general election.

There were almost 300 previously REPUBLICAN delegates who went DEM this time, and the majority of those went to Obama. If that trend holds, above all other trends, it's over.

That's the real story. Republicans are campaigning on garbage like immigration and fearmongering, and everybody sees through it.

People want economic policies that work, not tax cuts and never-ending rationalizations for voodoo econ.

I'm no democrat, but this is still a very good thing. We're getting away from Herbert Hoover and more towards FDR.

[Moby]

Republicans are campaigning on garbage like immigration and fearmongering, and everybody sees through it.
Not every body

[Bill]

In my heart, I want to believe that.

It's going to be a heck of a year.

If my theories about oil are correct, this is going to be an extreme year for the american economy. That's certain to make things even crazier.

The thing I enjoy the most is seeing that both of these first winners are anti-war.

[BryanJ62]

It's Iowa. It's a long ways to go. You finish second or third you are still in it. The way some of the networks were going at it they were handing the prize to Obama.

[Little Red Dog]

I agree. I think 2008 has some shakeups coming. Hillary's stance on the war hurt her, but it may have been the most realistic withdrawal plan I've heard. Be interesting to see how she tweaks her campaign to counter Obama. Plus, the economy is going to be huge. Gonna be interesting.

[Cat slave]

Wow, imagine what it would be like if it really was Obama vs Huckabee?

Talk about a polarizing election - white "golly gee" christian vs black/interracial hyper-urban intellectual.

I think Huck would probably win.


Iowa being a rather rural and white part of the country sure didnt have any
problem supporting Obama. Maybe they are right.

[disrupter]

Cat Slave would consider voting for Obama?

[Frankg]

I don't like Obama at all , seems like he doesn't have any platform when it comes to national security



(Note to self - work faster on bomb shelter)

[LadyMod at scam.com]

Sorry Disrupter, I didn't see this thread until after I started a duplicate and I can't delete it.

I'm bringing the post I made here and maybe the moderators will delete the other thread.

************************************************** ********

Anyway, good for both of these guys. This might be a decent race afterall.


Obama Takes Iowa in a Big Turnout as Clinton Falters; Huckabee Victor (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04elect.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin)


DES MOINES — Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a first-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change.

The victory by Mr. Obama, 46, amounted to a startling setback for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, 60, of New York, who just months ago presented herself as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. The result left uncertain the prospects for John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, who had staked his second bid for the White House on winning Iowa.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards, who edged her out for second place by less than a percentage point, both vowed to stay in the race.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who was barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago, defeated Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, delivering a serious setback to Mr. Romney’s high-spending campaign and putting pressure on Mr. Romney to win in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

Mr. Huckabee, a Baptist minister, was carried in large part by evangelical voters, who helped him withstand extensive spending by Mr. Romney on television advertising and a get-out-the-vote effort.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Mr. Huckabee won with 34.4 percent of the delegate support, after 86 percent of precincts had reported. Mr. Romney had 25.4 percent, former Senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee had 13.4 percent and Senator John McCain of Arizona had 13.2 percent.

On the Democratic side, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Obama had 37.6 percent of the delegate support, Mr. Edwards 29.8 percent and Mrs. Clinton had 29.5 percent. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico was fourth, at 2.11 percent.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

A record number of Democrats turned out to caucus — more than 239,000, compared with fewer than 125,0000 in 2004 — producing scenes of overcrowded firehouses and schools and long lines of people waiting to register their preferences.

The images stood as evidence of the success of Mr. Obama’s effort to reach out to thousands of first-time caucusgoers, including many independent voters and younger voters. The huge turn-out — by contrast, 108,000 Republicans caucused on Thursday — demonstrated the extent to which opposition to President Bush has energized Democrats, and served as another warning to Republicans about the problems they face this November in swing states like this.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

I like this headline and story: I live next to Arkansas. It's come a long way since Huckabee took the reigns from Clinton. But if the race comes down to him or Obama, I'm voting Obama. We need someone in the White House with youth and a different perspective. We DON'T need another Clinton in the Whitehouse and I'm not too sure having another religious nut is so smart either. If God starts talking to Huckabee on political policy like he does the current president, run the other direction.


2 Newcomers Jolt Parties’ Status Quo (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04assess.html?th&emc=th)

By PATRICK HEALY
Published: January 4, 2008

DES MOINES — The Democratic and Republican establishments and their presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Gov. Mitt Romney, were brought low in Iowa on Thursday night, shaken seriously by two national newcomers who won decisively on messages of insurgency and change.

The victors in Iowa, Senator Barack Obama for the Democrats and former Gov. Mike Huckabee for the Republicans, are as far from the status quo as possible. One is the son of a Kenyan father and a white Kansan mother who entered the United States Senate just three years ago. The other is a former Baptist minister who was best known until recently for losing over 100 pounds and taking on the issue of childhood obesity.

The two winners burst the aura of strength and confidence that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Romney had tried to cultivate for months, and left both parties suddenly without a clear path to their nominating conventions, let alone November.

Mrs. Clinton’s loss was especially glaring. Her central strategy for much of 2007 was to appear as the inevitable nominee, but Iowans shredded that notion. She tried in recent weeks to convince voters that another Clinton administration could be an agent of change, but Iowans clearly did not buy it.

Without question, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Romney have the money, the campaign apparatus and the legions of supporters to stay in the hunt for the nomination and to right their campaigns. But Mrs. Clinton’s lackluster finish raises anew questions about her electability, and whether independent voters — twice as many of whom backed Mr. Obama over her — will ever come around to Mrs. Clinton.

And Mr. Romney, who outspent Mr. Huckabee 6 to 1 in television advertising in Iowa, now faces a far more crowded field of rivals in the New Hampshire primary who are eager to tear into his wounded candidacy

All the candidates now move to that primary on Tuesday, which Mrs. Clinton had tried to make a fire wall for her campaign, as it was for her husband’s presidential candidacy in 1992, when he finished strongly in second place.

“If Hillary doesn’t stop Obama in New Hampshire, Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee,” said Robert Shrum, a Democratic consultant who was John Kerry’s senior strategist in 2004.

Clinton advisers declined to say Thursday night if she would now pursue a different strategy against Mr. Obama. But a shift seems likely now that Mrs. Clinton’s multilayered, sometimes contradictory message — offering an experienced hand, for example, but also running as a candidate who could bring change — fell flat in this first contest.

“We built a campaign for the long haul — we feel very good about our operation in New Hampshire, and polling has us up,” said Howard Wolfson, a Clinton spokesman. The danger for Mrs. Clinton, of course, is that those polls may not hold after the outcome in Iowa.

Further undercutting Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama peeled away broad swaths of women from her base of support, and the political potency of baby boomers fell apart in Iowa. Half of the Democrats under 45 said their first choice was Mr. Obama, according to a poll by Edison/Mitofsky of voters entering caucus sites.

At the same time, it was also historic that so many Iowa Democrats voted for an African-American man and a woman. For Mr. Obama, especially, the ratification of his candidacy by Democrats and independents in a predominantly white and rural state suggests that he may be able to build a broad and multiracial coalition in his bid for the White House.

The nomination fights will only intensify from now, though the steel that Mr. Huckabee will deploy in the battle is unclear. He seemed to come out of nowhere — a former governor who was so little known among Republicans that many of them could not even name the state he once led (Arkansas) — and turned from asterisk-status to giant-slayer in spite of a paltry political organization, slim dollars and a final week marked by gaffes.

As when Pat Robertson made a surprise second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses in 1988, Mr. Huckabee enjoyed substantial political support from evangelical Christians and took advantage of a muddled Republican presidential field to gain his 11th-hour victory.

For Mr. Romney, of Massachusetts, his loss will register as a deep blow to his candidacy — a failure bound to worry establishment Republicans and wealthy donors who have viewed him as their man. It will also energize and inspire Republicans who are backing Senator John McCain in the New Hampshire primary.

Mr. Romney’s drive to the Republican nomination was supposed to begin with him looking formidable and confident coming out of Iowa. Mr. Romney, his wife and his sons planted themselves here for months and poured in money, including millions of his own; he now heads to New Hampshire clearly wounded and a target for even more rivals, like Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Senator Fred Thompson, and Mr. McCain, of Arizona.

Mr. Huckabee, a folksy and fairly plain-speaking politician with a sense of humor that many Iowans enjoyed, appealed to Republican caucusgoers who put a premium on a candidate’s Christian faith— and who were deeply wary about seeing a Mormon, Mr. Romney, become president.

But Mr. Huckabee also struck many populist themes that have deep appeal to middle-class Iowans and farmers, promising to tailor his economic priorities to their needs and taking tough stands on a key issue here, immigration.

But Iowa voters are not New Hampshire voters, as Mr. Huckabee and his advisers are well aware. Devoutly religious voters do not exist in nearly the same numbers in the Granite State. And the fervent anti-tax sentiment among Republicans there is likely to clash with Mr. Huckabee’s record of raising taxes in Arkansas.

“If Huckabee scares the Republican establishment and makes the party fear losing, you could see a rapid rallying around a second candidate,” said Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant not working for any candidate. Still, he said, “Nothing makes a man look like a leader more than a winner.“

Mr. Robertson’s Iowa victory in 1988 — when he came in second to Bob Dole and edged out the ultimate nominee, George H. W. Bush — gave him little bounce in New Hampshire, given the lack of a fervent evangelical base. “I’m going to be the nominee,” Mr. Robertson said right after his victory, crediting God in particular with his success. But his fortunes faded after a drubbing soon after in New Hampshire.

Mr. Huckabee talked about God on the Iowa campaign trail, as well, but on Thursday night there was one other word that he — as well as Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney, Mrs. Clinton, former Senator John Edwards — discussed especially and emphatically: “change.”

As Mr. Edwards put it, “the status quo lost and change won” in the caucuses. Mr. Obama and Mr. Huckabee repeated the words incessantly in their victory speeches, brandishing the word as a talisman that overcame Mrs. Clinton’s decades of experience and Mr. Romney’s leadership bona fides. Yet change was not only the political message; change was the two men themselves.


.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

Great Editorial:


Op-Ed Columnist
The Two Earthquakes (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/opinion/04brooks.html?th&emc=th)

By DAVID BROOKS
Published: January 4, 2008
Ottumwa, Iowa

I’ve been through election nights that brought a political earthquake to the country. I’ve never been through an election night that brought two.

Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to feel moved by this. An African-American man wins a closely fought campaign in a pivotal state. He beats two strong opponents, including the mighty Clinton machine. He does it in a system that favors rural voters. He does it by getting young voters to come out to the caucuses.

This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance.

Iowa won’t settle the race, but the rest of the primary season is going to be colored by the glow of this result. Whatever their political affiliations, Americans are going to feel good about the Obama victory, which is a story of youth, possibility and unity through diversity — the primordial themes of the American experience.

And Americans are not going to want to see this stopped. When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?

Obama has achieved something remarkable. At first blush, his speeches are abstract, secular sermons of personal uplift — filled with disquisitions on the nature of hope and the contours of change.

He talks about erasing old categories like red and blue (and implicitly, black and white) and replacing them with new categories, of which the most important are new and old. He seems at first more preoccupied with changing thinking than changing legislation.

Yet over the course of his speeches and over the course of this campaign, he has persuaded many Iowans that there is substance here as well. He built a great organization and produced a tangible victory.

He’s made Hillary Clinton, with her wonkish, pragmatic approach to politics, seem uninspired. He’s made John Edwards, with his angry cries that “corporate greed is killing your children’s future,” seem old-fashioned. Edwards’s political career is probably over.

Obama is changing the tone of American liberalism, and maybe American politics, too.

On the Republican side, my message is: Be not afraid. Some people are going to tell you that Mike Huckabee’s victory last night in Iowa represents a triumph for the creationist crusaders. Wrong.

Huckabee won because he tapped into realities that other Republicans have been slow to recognize. First, evangelicals have changed. Huckabee is the first ironic evangelical on the national stage. He’s funny, campy (see his Chuck Norris fixation) and he’s not at war with modern culture.

Second, Huckabee understands much better than Mitt Romney that we have a crisis of authority in this country. People have lost faith in their leaders’ ability to respond to problems. While Romney embodies the leadership class, Huckabee went after it. He criticized Wall Street and K Street. Most importantly, he sensed that conservatives do not believe their own movement is well led. He took on Rush Limbaugh, the Club for Growth and even President Bush. The old guard threw everything they had at him, and their diminished power is now exposed.

Third, Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived. Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact. A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing. Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.

In that sense, Huckabee’s victory is not a step into the past. It opens up the way for a new coalition.

A conservatism that recognizes stable families as the foundation of economic growth is not hard to imagine. A conservatism that loves capitalism but distrusts capitalists is not hard to imagine either. Adam Smith felt this way. A conservatism that pays attention to people making less than $50,000 a year is the only conservatism worth defending.

Will Huckabee move on and lead this new conservatism? Highly doubtful. The past few weeks have exposed his serious flaws as a presidential candidate. His foreign policy knowledge is minimal. His lapses into amateurishness simply won’t fly in a national campaign.

So the race will move on to New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is now grievously wounded. Romney represents what’s left of Republicanism 1.0. Huckabee and McCain represent half-formed iterations of Republicanism 2.0. My guess is Republicans will now swing behind McCain in order to stop Mike.

Huckabee probably won’t be the nominee, but starting last night in Iowa, an evangelical began the Republican Reformation.

.

[disrupter]

People need to get past he, she, black, white, hispanic, asian, whatever.

Are they [whoever] the right person or at the very least the best available person to do the job of president.

This neurosis about electing or not electing people purely because of gender, race or religion is dangerous.

God knows humanity has a sharp deficit in the intellect department. We must utilize it wherever it arises.

Ladycom, i have a wet noodle ready to lash you with 50 times for double posting 'my' thread, i OWN it, (joking of course, unless of course you like being lashed with a wet noodle?).

I suppose it could be problematic if we had 50 election result posts, they would flood out everything else.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

Ladycom, i have a wet noodle ready to lash you with 50 times for double posting 'my' thread, i OWN it, (joking of course, unless of course you like being lashed with a wet noodle?).

I suppose it could be problematic if we had 50 election result posts, they would flood out everything else.


Depends on what kind of noodle? :winkwink:


:D

[Little Red Dog]

2 Newcomers Jolt Parties’ Status Quo (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04assess.html?th&emc=th)

...
.

I can quibble on some small points with this article, but I think the author nailed the key point: Americans have lost faith in their leadership and they want a definintive change.

This is the message they sent to the White House in 2004. And it's the same message that both the occupant and both Houses have ignored. If Iowa tells us anything, it tells us that voters weren't kidding in 2004.

Let's see if these results inspire the Dems in DC to grow a spine....

[disrupter]

Change is the keyword.

Let's hope it is not chump change,
for a change.

[Little Red Dog]

Yeah, the Repubs really missed the boat on that one. Look at the percentage difference between Huck and Romney. Huge compared to the very tight Dem race.

Tells you that the Dems are communicating better to their base than the Repubs to theirs.

[disrupter]

Remember though, this is Iowa.
They voted Pat Robertson over George H. Bush in 1988.

It means the nation's Republicans [what's left of them anyway] will take him more seriously as a candidate & at least not be afraid to vote for him as a potential GOP winner.

[Little Red Dog]

Oh, I don't think it's a done deal, by any means. Huck's got some problems that are going to show up sharply on the national stage, if he wins the nomination.

But if the GOP isn't listening - they really are idiots. This is their base (evangelicals) telling them they want change. It's not just crazy Democrats now.

[disrupter]

If it is crazy to demand change, then at least we can all be crazy together.

A slightly dissonant Kumbaya, with a lot of noise & sour notes, & sharp facial expressions.
Slightly painful to hear.

[Little Red Dog]

Even my cynicism has been disturbed by the results. I'm trying not to slip into full-fledged hope that America has awakened from the stupor of the last 6 years. At least until it becomes more concrete that it is so.

Disappointment would be just too painful to bear, if t'were not.

[Libraltarian]

Here are the lessons I'm taking from Iowa, first the key facts:

1. As I mentioned the other day turnout is the key. Dems turned out almost 2 to 1 over Republicans, which is proportionate to how the money is dropping.

2. The Obama, Edwards & Huckabee campaigns in Iowa ran a bottom up organizational structure, unlike Clinton and the others who are organized top down.

3. Where's Rudy? It already appears his 2nd half strategy is in peril as he trails Huckabee in his "Stop State" of Florida.

4. Clinton's problem which Iowa made very clear is that because of her high negatives, you either love her or hate her, she's nobody's second choice.

5. The message going forward is for hope and change. Edwards got it right, "Change won, status quo lost." Nothing supports more view more than the turnout. Over 230,00 Dems and some 120,000 Republicans.

5.B. As I mentioned the other day to radioguy '08 is shaping up as a further total and complete repudiation of the faux conservatism and flirtation with fascism that has gripped America for 25-30 years. In '04 I reported it peaked. Iowa is telling us it is over. Americans are rediscovering their soul, their compassion and enlightened self-interest.

We aren't going to take it anymore. Our children didn't just talk about voting. They voted!!! OR caucused, 'scuze me.

What to watch in January:

Clinton has to improve on her 3rd place finish in New Hampshire. Another 3rd and she's done like dinner unless of course Obama commits a major gaffe, such as toe tapping in an airport bathroom. Not likely. Yesterday New Hampshire polls showed Clinton 35, Obama 25 & Edwards 17. This morning in a poll taken overnight it was Clinton 32, Obama 28 & Edwards 21.

Momentum is everything in politics. My guess is Hillary can't do it. As I posted a week or so ago Obama will win the Dem primary. I'm still supporting Edwards and will until John drops out and endorses Obama. Edwards would make a great AG.

On the Republican side, we are witnessing a fractured party. The Reagan coalition of economic, social & strong military conservatives can't agree on a candidate. In Iowa, the social conservatives won.

New Hampshire is deciding between a military & economic conservative. The largest block on the Republican side though is the social conservatives.

Social conservatives represent about 40% of the Republican Party nationwide. With 4 candidates, Romney, McCain, Thompson and Where's Rudy dividing the remaining majority, Huckabee is unbeatable.

This is why I predicted a Huckabee v. Obama race for the WH.

Such a race, from my point of view will be good for the country if only because it will bring about the defeat of the American Taliban. I expect most Christians will be rediscovering their genuine Christian values and the religious right will be restored to the lunatic fringe where it so richly deserves to reside.

[Moby]

I still don't think Iowa means squat to anyone but the media. At least not for republican voters. They will follow whoever their church leader tells them to follow.

Giuliani not showing in Iowa means nothing. He's starting his campaign in Florida. Fred is starting his in South Carolina just like Dubya did.

Huckabee used the negative attack better then Rove could ever imagine. He got more free press and more coverage then he could have with $100,000,000.

Huckabee winning the Presidency would be too similar to Iranians electing Ahmadinejad. They both allow religious text to dictate their policies and both ignore science. It would set us back decades and I think most of America understands that.

People without memories will vote for Fred as he looks Presidential and people won't read his history.

Giuliani will get lots of votes in February. I think he'll get a lot of the market driven Republicans but none of the religious conservatives can make a case for him.

Many that want the status quo continued couldn't ask for a better candidate then Mitt. He does exactly as he's told.

McCain lost when he hugged Bush.

I think Fred and Giuliani are the best chances that the Reps have of winning and people know that. Electing man that doesn't believe in evolution is insane.

[Moby]

The dems really turned out for this and that shows that people are excited about the options.

I still think Hillary has the only plan for peaceful Iraq and that includes the current administration. The conservatives trying to tie Hillary to socialism are ignoring the neocon strategy. Her government and economy will be far less liberal then the current administrations.

Edwards is the hands down favorite amoung the far left even though he's not the money person that his opponents are. I think he's the smartest of the bunch and has a good chance of united America. He's from the south, a man, intelligent, a Christian and white. Hell if Nute wasn't in politics and Bill didn't get a blow job the country would have been united then.

In polls more Americans said they'd vote for a black man over a woman and a Mormon. Look at all the hate talk about Hillary and the prejudice is obvious.

Obama has been a public servant since he started his career. His career just isn't that long but neither was the career of Dubya before he ran. For some reason many people didn't have an issue with Dubya's lack of experience and his failed business ventures but seem to question Obama's.

SC and Florida will tell what Americans think about a black man in office.

[Cat slave]

I don't like Obama at all , seems like he doesn't have any platform when it comes to national security



(Note to self - work faster on bomb shelter)


Neither do I but with all the rot that has come down in the past few years
I have to consider......can that many people be wrong....of course they
can, but my former party has so angered me I dont know what I will do
on election day. It may be the first time since my virgin vote that I will
stay home. I dont to see business as usual or we will keep going down
the drain!.

[Cat slave]

note to self: See if Frank can build a big one!!!!

[Bill]

Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to feel moved by this. An African-American man wins a closely fought campaign in a pivotal state. He beats two strong opponents, including the mighty Clinton machine. He does it in a system that favors rural voters. He does it by getting young voters to come out to the caucuses.

This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance.

Iowa won’t settle the race, but the rest of the primary season is going to be colored by the glow of this result. Whatever their political affiliations, Americans are going to feel good about the Obama victory, which is a story of youth, possibility and unity through diversity — the primordial themes of the American experience.

And Americans are not going to want to see this stopped. When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?

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Ladymod, I just wanted to thank and commend you for using bold and color to emphasize points you thought were significant.

It makes the article much easier to read, and your message much clearer.

And more exciting and interesting.

[Bill]

Libraltarian, I removed your doplicate post.

Good observations, especially on turnout.

Something to add was that a large percentage of the dem voters were new, young voters, who came out strongly for Obama.

So, the republican war and anti-constitutionalism is rousing the youth vote.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

Ladymod, I just wanted to thank and commend you for using bold and color to emphasize points you thought were significant.

It makes the article much easier to read, and your message much clearer.

And more exciting and interesting.


You are quite welcome Bill. It beats the ALL CAPS and Exclamation !!!! points by a long run.

And the Neocons find it easier to comment on the points if those are actually "pointed" out to them to begin with. Saves them from confusion.


:D

[Betty Blowtorch]

Are the Democrats blind or what? http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7070/avatarworking3mx7.gif


Am I the only one who can see http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/5103/eyebulgejv7.jpg
that Barack Obama is a "wet dream come true" --
for the REPUBLICANS!!

It would be shrewd for the Republicans to funnel millions
of dollars into the Obama campaign to help him win the
Democratic nomination.

It might be idealistic for the Dems to nominate a black man,
but the practical effect will be 8 more years of Republicans
in the White House and the Pentagon.

I don't think America will elect a black man as President
this year, and it seems stupid for the Democrats to try.


A smarter bet is John Edwards. http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/1884/johnedwards250cmugjr3.jpg
He has the most important qualification for winning
the Presidency: he's an intelligent, good-looking
white Christian male from the South.

If Hillary or Obama wins the nomination, either of
them will have less chance of beating the Repugs
in the general election than Edwards would have.

Democrats need to stop http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/8176/barneyfiferu5.jpg
shooting themselves in the foot.

[Bill]

I agree Betty.

The best that can be said is that the voters of both parties are being foolish.

[Bill]

note to self: See if Frank can build a big one!!!!

Why, catslave, are you going to join the fraidycats in their holes?

You do realize there's going to be a shortage of clean underwear in those holes? It's going to stink to high heaven.

But, on the bright side, all the fraidycats will be in holes.

[Cat slave]

Why, catslave, are you going to join the fraidycats in their holes?

You do realize there's going to be a shortage of clean underwear in those holes? It's going to stink to high heaven.

But, on the bright side, all the fraidycats will be in holes.

And alive!:p

[Bill]

Have fun in the hole then. Should be a hoot.

Make sure they dig a nice hole. If they dig this hole the same way they dug their first one, there could be cave-ins.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

And alive!:p

Don't count on that, frankie will be building that shelter after all and he's not the sharpest tool in the shed.


But I can see why you would have an interest though. Most cats are drawn to killing rats and he will be fresh meat. Of course he may just eat you. Provided that you both live that is.


Who will eat whom? The Rat or the Cat?


:lmao2:

[asroc]

Obama is matching or beating Hillary in most New Hampshire polls now. Just a week ago she had 5%+ on him. NH was a state that Obama wasn't supposed to get.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

Obama is matching or beating Hillary in most New Hampshire polls now. Just a week ago she had 5%+ on him. NH was a state that Obama wasn't supposed to get.


He and McCain are courting the "Independent" vote which could swing that primary either way.


Personally I prefer Obama.

Lady Mod

[Libraltarian]

Cat slave is waiting to see if Frankg can get it up. You will let us know it that ever happens.

[Little Red Dog]

Cat slave is waiting to see if Frankg can get it up. You will let us know it that ever happens.

Damn, dude. I don't think I'm gonna live that long! :lmao2: :taunt:

[disrupter]

There are implants you know.

[LadyMod at scam.com]

There are implants you know.


LOLO, There's pharmacueticals too. :D



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