One of the reasons I love this war.

[Bill]

Is that really, there is no end in sight, it would take years just to pull out, and decades to stay the course.

The real people in charge can't let go of Iraq, the oil is just too valuable. So we are going to have this war for a long time.

And even if we did leave, it's the start of a whole new region wide shia-sunni war. So, we hawks, we are sitting pretty, the american people are going to learn a lot about war from this one.

"If you look at the relevant historical experiences with insurgencies, the United States might be in a better position in Iraq at the end of a decade or so," said Brian Jenkins, a senior counter- terrorism and counterinsurgency expert at the Rand think tank. "But not necessarily. Israel was in southern Lebanon for 18 years, and the situation just got worse until it became intolerable." In the meantime, the U.S. presence in Iraq will continue to galvanize Islamic radicals worldwide and drain America of blood, treasure, and moral standing. That has to be weighed, Jenkins said, against a precipitous withdrawal that could lead to all-out civil war, massive ethnic and sectarian cleansing, and a major psychological victory for Qaeda and Islamic extremists. "The basic problem with the equation is that the costs and downsides of Iraq are all front-loaded and being felt today, while the potential upsides are dependent on a reasonably successful and still murky outcome some years down the road."

http://nationaljournal.com/scripts/printpage.cgi?/about/njweekly/stories/2006/1020nj1.htm

[Abnormalia]

Is that really, there is no end in sight, it would take years just to pull out, and decades to stay the course.

The real people in charge can't let go of Iraq, the oil is just too valuable. So we are going to have this war for a long time.

And even if we did leave, it's the start of a whole new region wide shia-sunni war. So, we hawks, we are sitting pretty, the american people are going to learn a lot about war from this one.

"If you look at the relevant historical experiences with insurgencies, the United States might be in a better position in Iraq at the end of a decade or so," said Brian Jenkins, a senior counter- terrorism and counterinsurgency expert at the Rand think tank. "But not necessarily. Israel was in southern Lebanon for 18 years, and the situation just got worse until it became intolerable." In the meantime, the U.S. presence in Iraq will continue to galvanize Islamic radicals worldwide and drain America of blood, treasure, and moral standing. That has to be weighed, Jenkins said, against a precipitous withdrawal that could lead to all-out civil war, massive ethnic and sectarian cleansing, and a major psychological victory for Qaeda and Islamic extremists. "The basic problem with the equation is that the costs and downsides of Iraq are all front-loaded and being felt today, while the potential upsides are dependent on a reasonably successful and still murky outcome some years down the road."

http://nationaljournal.com/scripts/printpage.cgi?/about/njweekly/stories/2006/1020nj1.htm


I think world tensions are going to continue to increase. I don't think we'll see a WWIII though, or at least I hope we won't. At the very least, I think there will be a huge war in the middle east. etc, etc.

[Linkster]

Bill - I tend to disagree - and hope that it doesnt for the troops sake
That said - my disagreement is based on what happened in Saigon when we realized that we were at pretty much the same point we are now in Iraq - we decided to pull out and we were gone immediately - I mean we were hi-tailing it out within hours and it was constant ferrying of people out of the city from the embassy as fast as we could

I believe that much of it is predicated (and I think the administration knows this) on two things - public sentiment and congressional makeup.
Remember that congress never declared war - they only supported the funding bill - and if there are enough calls by the public, a changed congress will react by pulling funding. Add to that a few governors that pull their national guard back and it will be over in a few weeks
Remember that we have not benefitted in any way from the oil yet - so we've been living without it for a long time - so I dont think that will be an issue

[Abnormalia]

Bill - I tend to disagree - and hope that it doesnt for the troops sake
That said - my disagreement is based on what happened in Saigon when we realized that we were at pretty much the same point we are now in Iraq - we decided to pull out and we were gone immediately - I mean we were hi-tailing it out within hours and it was constant ferrying of people out of the city from the embassy as fast as we could

I believe that much of it is predicated (and I think the administration knows this) on two things - public sentiment and congressional makeup.
Remember that congress never declared war - they only supported the funding bill - and if there are enough calls by the public, a changed congress will react by pulling funding. Add to that a few governors that pull their national guard back and it will be over in a few weeks
Remember that we have not benefitted in any way from the oil yet - so we've been living without it for a long time - so I dont think that will be an issue


Tell me something, actually, are the dems expected to come out on top in congress? I'm not as political as I like- when are the elections?

[Linkster]

Nov 7th - and yes most polls right now (that of course can be changed at will by some people) show Dems way ahead - and dissatisfaction by the general population with the current congress at the highest it ever been

[Moby]

Bill - I tend to disagree - and hope that it doesnt for the troops sake
That said - my disagreement is based on what happened in Saigon when we realized that we were at pretty much the same point we are now in Iraq
There's a big different between Iraq and Saigon. With control of the oil in Iraq there is also control of oil prices which can influence stock markets, elections and growing nations.

It's more then just oil money at stake. It's power that money can't buy and while Dubya might be happy to just take the coin I think that his handlers will not give up the power so easily.

[Moby]

Tell me something, actually, are the dems expected to come out on top in congress? I'm not as political as I like- when are the elections?
Yes. So far it appears that Rove is not even making a play to keep Reps in power which follows what I've been saying for 5 years now.

"Dubya will fuck things up very badly by cutting taxes too much, increasing spending too much and spreading the military too thin". We see now that the debt is taking it's toll, the economy while on a temporary up swing because of the massive drop in oil prices is going to have a small to medium collapse as the housing market cools (mainly because of the trade deficit and the loss of manufacturing).

Once the collapse takes place, the dems stop the bleeding and the economy starts to go ahead, they will push Jeb into office, give him all the credit and that's when the dictatorship begins. That will include attacks on Supreme Court Justices if needed.

Since Jan. 2001 my predictions have been pretty accurate. Not really mine but a group of us that have many informal connections to Washington. My timing was off by only a few weeks about "Mission Accomplished".

My timing may be off by a year on the record foreclosures because that's starting to occur now and I've always said it would be 2008 to 2010 before we break the record and it may end up being 2007.

[Bill]

Sure, we could pull out in a few days, Linkster, blowing up our tanks and depots behind us as we go.

But we won't.

"The Prize", which is what the oil companies call the oil of Iraq, is too valuable.

Not to mention that a rapid pull out would be the final hammer to the forehead of US credibility in the world.

It would be like saying to the chinese - "Here, all this Iraqi oil, including the last remaining giant virgin field of light sweet cude on earth - it's all yours, because we're incompetent to manage it and we can't defend it.".

Like SirMoby said, the strategic value of Iraq and Vietnam can't be compared. Vietnam was an idle adventure, just a little present for the industrial complex - Iraq is the first blow of the Great Oil Wars.

[Abnormalia]

that's when the dictatorship begins

I lost you right about there.

However, I'm very excited to see if the Dems will take over congress for the first time in, what, 12 years? I can't wait.

In response to some of the problems with BigOil, does anyone know of any push to limit or outlaw lobbying?

[Moby]

that's when the dictatorship begins

I lost you right about there.
Read about PNAC, it's members and their goals. They're very open about many of them. George is just a figure head. Jeb Bush is part of the dangerous force that wants to change the world and believes he knows what's good for us.