China Getting Geared Up.

[Smurf-Herder]

I've been hearing a few bits & pieces of this story. This seems to have the most detail:

PLA Exercise Makes Pincer Attack on Taiwan; Two Major Fleets Sent; 'Chance Encounter' with Kitty Hawk

http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/naval-forces-navy/massive-plan-naval-exercise-thanksgiving-3595.html

"Massive PLAN naval exercise on Thanksgiving

We're getting more details now. I think given the circumstances the Kitty Hawk may have had another chance encounter with PLAN vessels, but on a different circumstance given their planned Hong Kong visit may have run into a contradiction with the PLAN exercise. The exercise appears to be major, with airports closed and flights canceled wholesale all around the Chinese east coast.

The pieces are falling together from all the pictures being released, that showed a massive exercise that have anything from JH-7As, Kilos, Houbeis, Jiangweis, Sovs and Luyangs firing their missiles. The live fire exercise would have made the area treacherous.

PLA Exercise Makes Pincer Attack on Taiwan; Two Major Fleets Sent; 'Chance Encounter' with Kitty Hawk - Ming Pao

Posted by Xiao Qiang :: 2007-11-24, 01:22 PM :: World

Pics 2007 11 23 55905 6455905 From Hong Kong's Ming Pao:

According to sources in China, in recent days the East and South China Sea fleets of the People's Liberation Army [PLA] have carried out a large-scale "campaign-level [zhanyi ji] naval exercise"; the two big fleets staged a joint combat exercise in the Pacific east of Taiwan; the recent aviation controls in east and south China, which are related to this major exercise, will end tomorrow. Further reports claim that the PLA fleet on exercise had a "chance encounter" with the USS Kitty Hawk battle group which was heading for Hong Kong.

According to foreign news agencies, US Pacific Commander Keating said yesterday that he was "perplexed and concerned" that the Chinese side had refused Kitty Hawk entry to Hong Kong, holding that this was "absolutely not positive." Keating also confirmed that this was the second time in one week that US ships had been refused entry to Hong Kong; three or four days prior to the Kitty Hawk incident, two US minesweepers requested to anchor in Hong Kong to refuel, having been affected by bad weather in the South China Sea, but this was refused by the Chinese Government. Kitty Hawk has now returned to its base in Japan, and the officers and men were forced to spend Thanksgiving at sea on 22 November.

According to websites in the interior, the joint exercise of the East and South China Sea fleets was conducted east of Taiwan and north of the Philippine archipelago, and its objective was to envelop and make a pincer attack on Taiwan from the sea.

The South China Sea fleet sent out detachments of new type-022 stealth missile ships, frigates, and modern missile destroyers; apart from the missile destroyer Shenzhen which is visiting Japan, a large battle fleet including the missile destroyer Guangzhou took part in the exercise. The East China Sea Fleet dispatched the modern missile destroyer Hangzhou imported from Russia; during the exercise, Kilo-class submarines bought from Russia successfully launched Russian-made SS-N-27 "Club" antiship cruise missiles for the first time; this missile can carry a 250 kg warhead, with a range of 220 km. Netizens in the interior have recently observed a China-made early-warning aircraft over Nanjing, capital of Jiangsu.

Apart from that, a regiment of the South China Sea Fleet's Ninth Aviation Division, equipped with new China-made Flying Leopard fighters, for the first time transferred from Hainan Island to the east China region to take part in the exercise, demonstrating that the Flying Leopard has all-weather sea combat capability.

On the other hand, Japan's Sankei Shimbun reported yesterday that sinodefence.com whose headquarters is in England has for the first time openly published a photograph of China's new Type-094 "Jin-class" nuclear missile submarine, which has aroused the Japanese Defense Ministry's concern; it is now undertaking analysis and confirmation.

The Jin-class submarine has a displacement of 9,000 tonnes and carries 12 JL-2 missiles with a range of 8000 km. The first Jin-class submarine was launched in 2004 and is expected to come into service next year. [passage omitted; comments by head of "Macau International Military Association"]

There have been more transfers of senior generals of the PLA air force and navy in recent days; Major General Zhao Zhongxin, air force chief of staff, has been promoted to deputy commander; and Rear Admiral Liao Shining. Deputy chief of staff of the East China Sea Fleet, who had been director of the combat training bureau of the General Staff Department, has been appointed commander of the navy's Shanghai base.

Zhao Zhongxin was formerly commander of the 19th Air Force Division stationed at Zhengzhou in Henan, and had also been chief of staff of the air force of Nanjing Military Region, in the frontline against Taiwan; in 2004 he was promoted to deputy chief of staff of the Air Force HQ, and to Air Force chief of staff at the end of 2005. He recently visited Sweden and Bulgaria in the capacity of air force deputy commander, together with Jing Zhiyuan, member of the Central Military Commission and commander of Second Artillery. Rear Admiral Liao Shining is a navy man, but he had been director of the combat training bureau of the PLA General Staff Department; in 2005 he was transferred back to the East China Sea Fleet as deputy chief of staff, and in July 2006 was promoted to rear admiral. Recently he swapped posts with Rear Admiral Wang Deding, commander of the Shanghai logistical base.

Taiwan Ministry of Defense spokesman Lu Ssu-tzu would not respond concerning the USS Kitty Hawk and the PLA's east China military exercise. Taiwan military experts hold the view, however, that the recent PLA exercise "is totally directed at Taiwan."

General Fu Tai-hsing, former director of the Strategic Institute of Taiwan National Defense University, stated that although US Secretary of Defense Gates' recent visit to Beijing was grand on the surface, the US side's private concerns about China's development of a killer satellite, a space force, and strategic missiles did not receive straight answers, hence the US military is somewhat unhappy with the mainland; major newspapers such as The New York Times and The Washington Post have pointed out that the visit produced no substantive results, with the consequence that the Kitty Hawk's Hong Kong visit was blocked by the Chinese side.

Fu Tai-hsing said that the recent PLA exercise is the first comprehensive exercise since its shift from mechanization to informatization, and is also the exercise with the largest scale of science and technology transformation; network centralization C4TSR was the focal point of the exercise.

He pointed out that the mobilization of the Nanjing and Guangzhou military regions for the exercise "was totally directed at Taiwan," and instituting aviation controls was equivalent to revealing news of the exercise to the outside world and played the role of an external deterrent."

[Bill]

We can hardly complain now if China occupies Taiwan.

Countries will be using our example of preemptive occupation to justify similar acts for many decades.

[Moby]

Another example of how our President was out played by another world leader :(

It's a really bad situation for us. We've made agreements with Taiwan to protect them but if it's China we can't do anything about it. We'll say stop the aggression and oh, by the way, can you lend us more money? We have tax cuts to pay for.

[Smurf-Herder]

Bill, China taking Taiwan will be nothing more than a continuation of the civil war that stopped in 1949, with the Mainland vowing to take the island back someday. Nothing preemptive about it.

SM, Taiwan is just as much an ally of ours over there as South Korea and Japan. We lose them and SK and Japan are even more threatened by the Chi-coms. This is a major deal if they ever try to blockade Taiwan.

They have also been building bases though the Pacific up through the Indian Ocean and into the Persian Gulf; including a canal through Vietnam I believe. China has been busy, building.

China having two fleets in campaign level exercises is something to be conserned about.

[Moby]

Bill, China taking Taiwan will be nothing more than a continuation of the civil war that stopped in 1949, with the Mainland vowing to take the island back someday. Nothing preemptive about it.

SM, Taiwan is just as much an ally of ours over there as South Korea and Japan. We lose them and SK and Japan are even more threatened by the Chi-coms. This is a major deal if they ever try to blockade Taiwan.

They have also been building bases though the Pacific up through the Indian Ocean and into the Persian Gulf; including a canal through Vietnam I believe. China has been busy, building.

China having two fleets in campaign level exercises is something to be conserned about.
I know this is terrible.

Q. Where do you think they got the money to build all those bases?
A. American consumers because of the deal signed in 2001.

Q. How have they profited so much by the deal?
A. We allowed them to manipulate their currency guaranteeing that their goods will always be less then ours no matter what.

Q. Why are we in debt to them?>
A. It's estimated that China owns 10% + of our national debt because our President is spending like a mad man while cutting revenues.

I know that it's a terrible situation but what can we do now that we've given China control of our currency and our debt? We did it in just 7 years too. Amazing isn't it?

Never in American history has a President been so out played :(

[Bill]

China having two fleets in campaign level exercises is something to be conserned about.

You're preaching to the choir.

What I'm saying is we've lost our moral authority. So, it's pretty much gunboat diplomacy or go home.

SirMoby is adding what is also clear, which is we don't have much in the way of economic leverage either.

I guess were going to have to send some boats and men and explosives.

If I'm right, more and more countries will be taking action because they know the US is weak right now, and can't do much about it.

Since we're going to be invested in the middle east for years, it's going to cost us a lot to have to deal with stuff like threatening china off taiwan.

The whole world takes us less seriously right now.

[Bill]

BTW, I didn't say china was being preemptive, I said our example of a preemptive invasion creates a moral example that other countries can use to justify all kinds of unpopular military and governmental actions.

We've become a moral argument for the rights of nations to attack other nations on contrived and unproven evidence.

[Smurf-Herder]

BTW, I didn't say china was being preemptive, I said our example of a preemptive invasion creates a moral example that other countries can use to justify all kinds of unpopular military and governmental actions.

We've become a moral argument for the rights of nations to attack other nations on contrived and unproven evidence.

Right.

But this is an entirely different thing. There is no "evidence" to use against Taiwan. The Communists just want to finally take the island where the Free Chinese fled to during the civil war in 1949; effectively conquering them as part of their communist empire.

Basically, if Mainland China attacks or blockades Taiwan, the Japanese, South Korean, US and Australian Navies and Airforces will be on war alert. And both China and Taiwan has tons of missiles. Taiwan's only 100 miles away. So any actual fighting will make "Shock & Awe" look like a firecracker.

[Bill]

Basically, if Mainland China attacks or blockades Taiwan, the Japanese, South Korean, US and Australian Navies and Airforces will be on war alert. And both China and Taiwan has tons of missiles. Taiwan's only 100 miles away. So any actual fighting will make "Shock & Awe" look like a firecracker.

I know.

We've always maintained a fairly large and expensive presence in that part of the world, for exactly that reason.

Do you see any alternative to borrowing more money and sending more ships and exploding things to that region?

It's not the best logistics chain in the world, but it's better than the chain to the middle east.

[Bill]

But this is an entirely different thing. There is no "evidence" to use against Taiwan. The Communists just want to finally take the island where the Free Chinese fled to during the civil war in 1949; effectively conquering them as part of their communist empire..

I think it's very similar. The chinese will have a pretext, just like we did.

I'm sure the chinese diplomats have the pretext well rehearsed and fleshed out. Probably better than ours, ours was pretty flimsy.

[Smurf-Herder]

I know.

We've always maintained a fairly large and expensive presence in that part of the world, for exactly that reason.

Do you see any alternative to borrowing more money and sending more ships and exploding things to that region?

It's not the best logistics chain in the world, but it's better than the chain to the middle east.

There's over a billion Chinese, Bill. All economics aside, I don't want us to have to do more than deter them, effectively. It would be nice to finally settle this somehow. Some sort of compromise on extensive autonomy. Otherwise, China will eventually feel strong enough to invade and counter US forces in the deal. All major powers have an EMP doctrine. So if we go to blows with China and it escalates, the lights and civilian communication may go out ... for a couple years.

[Bill]

Yeah, china pretty much holds all the cards, we only have one, which we can't use - firing nukes at them.

This is the choice america made when it decided to attack iraq. Now a bunch of camelriders have us trapped, and russia and china are laughing at us.

I can't see a single reason why china should give up on it's desire to dominate asia and the pacific rim.

I'll bet right now chinese diplomats are whispering in american corridors that we best not interfere with their plans for taiwan, or they will sell their dollars and switch to euros and back the petroeuro.

If they try to take taiwan, we won't even shoot. We're as useless now as tits on a boar hog.

[Bill]

China's military budget is set to rise 17.8 percent this year, triggering fears abroad about how the rising Asian power plans to spend the money.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071205/od_afp/chinamilitaryshowersoffbeat;_ylt=AtQSCjEldovtYMvXa FmViKys0NUE

[Moby]

China's military budget is set to rise 17.8 percent this year, triggering fears abroad about how the rising Asian power plans to spend the money.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071205/od_afp/chinamilitaryshowersoffbeat;_ylt=AtQSCjEldovtYMvXa FmViKys0NUE
What else are they going to do with all those $trillions of US dollars we've been sending them since 2001? They can't lend it all back to us can they?

[Smurf-Herder]

Yeah, china pretty much holds all the cards, we only have one, which we can't use - firing nukes at them.

This is the choice america made when it decided to attack iraq. Now a bunch of camelriders have us trapped, and russia and china are laughing at us.



I don't see how that relates to Taiwan. Taiwan would involve Air and Naval forces. Neither of which are being used heavily in Iraq.