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LadyMod at scam.com
10-31-2007, 11:31 PM
Iran Guards Warn US Against Attack (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hdVphwtHPpy9Q9tjjJ_nrCbbPG3gD8SKH6CO0)
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI – 2 hours ago

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — The head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps warned the U.S. Wednesday against attacking the Islamic Republic, saying if it did, Washington would be "stuck in a quagmire" worse than Iraq or Afghanistan.

Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said his forces were prepared to strike back with a "crushing response" if attacked, according to comments carried by the semiofficial Fars news agency.

"If enemies prove to be naive enough to invade Iran, they will be slapped hard," Fars, which is deemed close to the Guards, quoted Jafari as saying.

"The enemy knows that if it attacks Iran, it will certainly get stuck in a quagmire deeper than Iraq and Afghanistan and will be defeated," he added.

His comments come a day after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shrugged off new U.S. sanctions imposed last week that ban dealings with companies connected to the Guards.

Tensions are high between Iran and the U.S. over allegations that Tehran is secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons and supplying insurgents in Iraq with deadly weapons that kill American troops. Iran denies both claims.

Concerns have been mounting in recent months that the United States might attack to prevent Iran from developing atomic bombs. The U.S. has said it is trying to resolve its disputes with Iran diplomatically but also says it has not ruled out any options.

Speaking in Paris on Wednesday, U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said military action against Iran was "not inevitable, and not desirable" and suggested that tougher penalties would be a way to avoid it.

Washington is pushing for a third round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to produce fuel for both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. The Security Council has already passed two rounds of sanctions against Iran, but Russia and China have resisted a third set.

Burns was in France to urge European countries to slap new sanctions on Iran. But he also faulted China and Russia, which have economic interests in Iran, for stalling progress toward the third set of sanctions. He said China was increasing its trade with Iran, "which of course is a very negative development."

Underlining the rift between Russia and the U.S., the Russian Foreign Ministry said Wednesday it disagreed with a U.S. assumption that Iran is an enemy that must be countered with missile defense sites in Europe.

The statement from ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin indicated Russia remains strongly opposed to Washington's missile defense plans, despite recent U.S. attempts to assuage Russian concerns.

"A serious problem for us is that the U.S. plans are based on dogmatic logic that Iran is an enemy," Kamynin said. "We don't support plans for a 'holy alliance' against that country."

Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past has scoffed at U.S. claims that missile defense sites in Europe are necessary to counter a prospective threat from Iran, saying the shield would threaten Russia's nuclear deterrent.

Putin also said there was no proof that Iran was seeking to build nuclear weapons. He visited Iran earlier this month and reaffirmed that Russia would complete construction of Iran's first nuclear power plant.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, began a third, final round of talks in Tehran earlier this week aimed at resolving remaining questions on centrifuges that are used to enrich uranium. Those talks will provide a basis for an important progress report on Iran by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei planned for mid-November.

Iran's U.N. Ambassador Mahammed Khazaee sent a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday, saying the U.S. economic sanctions against Iran were "a means of exerting pressure on a sovereign country for purely politically motivated and ill-intended policies."

He said that "Iran has demonstrated the purely peaceful nature of its nuclear program through complete transparency and full cooperation with the IAEA."

He also dismissed allegations that Iran supports terrorism.

Iran "considers the current U.S. warmongering as a threat not just against Iran but rather the whole world community," he said.

Associated Press writers Jamey Keaten in Paris, Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.

Yirmeyahu
11-01-2007, 01:11 AM
I very seriously doubt the US will invade Iran with boots on the ground. But it seems to me that airstrikes are inevitable (unless there is a dramatic alteration of present policies, which seems unlikely even were there to be a regime change after the elections next year). Of course, the consequences of such action could easily escalate and result in an expanded ground war. This is a very dangerous course to have set sail upon, but that's the direction we're heading. It frightens the hell out of me.

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 03:21 AM
This is all tied in to their using Hezbollah to bait Israel. If we don't deal with Iran in time, they'll be joining in; possibly resulting in a nuclear exchange between the two. And at this point, if that happens, I can forsee Russia making a case for intervening on the side of their allies; like they almost did in 1973, when Nixon put us on nuclear alert. All their threats of retaliation are just laying the groundwork for looking like nothing is planned, in the eyes of the world community. And all Putin's bitching about a mere 10 anti-ballistic missiles (which can't do shit about Russia's thousands of missiles) is just Russia wanting to make sure Europe remains vulnerable to missiles from Iran. It's all having the lower tiered country taking the blame, for the sake of plausible deniability.

Israel Says Hezbollah Can Hit Tel Aviv
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j9vZHFTc73lcyU2G3z7CFZLjvv-gD8SKHML81

Note: Zilzal rockets have 1200 lb. warheads, compared to the 12 - 50 lb. warheads used in 2006.

Yirmeyahu
11-01-2007, 03:57 AM
This is all tied in to their using Hezbollah to bait Israel. If we don't deal with Iran in time, they'll be joining in; possibly resulting in a nuclear exchange between the two.

I'd be interested in how you think we should "deal" with Iran.

LadyMod at scam.com
11-01-2007, 08:09 AM
I very seriously doubt the US will invade Iran with boots on the ground. But it seems to me that airstrikes are inevitable (unless there is a dramatic alteration of present policies, which seems unlikely even were there to be a regime change after the elections next year). Of course, the consequences of such action could easily escalate and result in an expanded ground war. This is a very dangerous course to have set sail upon, but that's the direction we're heading. It frightens the hell out of me.

Yirme, I think they have been set on this course for years, at least since 2004 that I can remember right off hand.

It scares the hell out of me too. A war with Iran will make Iraq look like a cake walk and we've lost nearly 4,000 Americans and I lost count of the civilians in that one.

They won't be able to keep a war that big off our turf. I believe it will come home to roost in one fashion or another.

Lady Mod

Yirmeyahu
11-01-2007, 08:24 AM
Yirme, I think they have been set on this course for years, at least since 2004 that I can remember right off hand.

Yes, absolutely.

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 12:39 PM
I'd be interested in how you think we should "deal" with Iran.

We offered them everything we could with the P5+1 agreement in July of 2006; and that didn't work. We had talks with them on stopping arms going to Shiite Militias in Iraq; and that only increased their support of them.

We are presently in a proxy war already in Iraq. And with Russia and China blocking severe sanctions, I doubt anything will be enough to turn them around.

We need to support dissident groups in Iran; and coordinate military action against IRGC training bases for Shiite Iraqi Militia with Iranian Military and Democracy groups for an internal revolt against the Mullahs and the IRGC. As a start. But the whole thing is so complicated, that may not end up being practical. I'd have to know what intelligence we have that the public doesn't know about to have a sure plan of action.

LadyMod at scam.com
11-01-2007, 12:41 PM
We need to support dissident groups in Iran; and coordinate military action against IRGC training bases for Shiite Iraqi Militia with Iranian Military and Democracy groups for an internal revolt against the Mullahs and the IRGC. As a start. But the whole thing is so complicated, that may not end up being practical. I'd have to know what intelligence we have that the public doesn't know about to have a sure plan of action.

You bring up an interesting point.

Are there dissident groups in Iran that would accept support from the U.S.?


Lady Mod

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 12:55 PM
You bring up an interesting point.

Are there dissident groups in Iran that would accept support from the U.S.?


Lady Mod

Yes. Most definitely.

That's where we got the heads up on the Iranian nuclear program. The MEK had spies in the IRGC. And 90% of the population hate the Mullahs; and everybody including the regular military fear the IRGC, who answer directly to the Mullahs. As long as US troops don't invade directly, many would support anything substantial that would throw the leadership and IRGC off balance.

LadyMod at scam.com
11-01-2007, 12:58 PM
Yes. Most definitely.

That's where we got the heads up on the Iranian nuclear program. The MEK had spies in the IRGC. And 90% of the population hate the Mullahs; and everybody including the regular military fear the IRGC, who answer directly to the Mullahs. As long as US troops don't invade directly, many would support anything substantial that would throw the leadership and IRGC off balance.

Then why in your opinion doesn't the U.S. follow that kind of strategy rather than rattle the sabres of war?

Is it because doing so would not guarantee a "friendly democratic government" and that is what it's all about?


Lady Mod

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 01:18 PM
Then why in your opinion doesn't the U.S. follow that kind of strategy rather than rattle the sabres of war?

Is it because doing so would not guarantee a "friendly democratic government" and that is what it's all about?


Lady Mod


They very well might be; covertly planning something, while publically saying something else.

No, I'm convinced there would be a democratic outcome, if we did this right. The Iranian people love the US and western freedoms, more than any other country in the region. The key is, only targeting IRGC bases and units, working closely with generals in the regular military and civilian dissident groups, so everybody is on the same page. If this were successful, we could avoid anything related to military action on the nuke sites. The average Iranian only want nuclear power, not weapons. So if this all went down right, I have no doubt they'd work with everybody on scrapping any WMD weapons programs. And if we square away Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria don't have the backing they need to maintain their present threat level. And Syria could be persuaded to normalize relations.

Moby
11-01-2007, 01:41 PM
The day that Dubya called Iran part of the Axis Of Evil was the day things started getting worse. We could have had open talks with Saddam and removed him without a single shot being fired.

We had the opportunity to negotiate with Iran many times even after we called them evil but we refuse.

We need a regime change inside the USA. Once that occurs we can seek to have diplomatic talks with Iran. We must have an open dialogue with them. Only then can we hope to gain the support of the those that can effect regime change inside Iran.

Remember all the white papers that were written about how the Iraqis would all support the US as soon as we toppled Saddam? They were wrong. Dead wrong.

I do believe that all the saber rattling is being done for 2 goals.

1. To raise oil profits
2. To gain votes

Americanadian
11-01-2007, 05:57 PM
We need to support dissident groups in Iran; and coordinate military action against IRGC training bases for Shiite Iraqi Militia with Iranian Military and Democracy groups for an internal revolt against the Mullahs and the IRGC. As a start. But the whole thing is so complicated, that may not end up being practical. I'd have to know what intelligence we have that the public doesn't know about to have a sure plan of action.

They're already working on that from what I've read.

I also agree with your assessment of Russia using Iran as the fall guy when push comes to shove. Egypt was in that situation in the Six day war. Russia has always held ties with Israel and Russia essentially ensured Egypt's defeat by misleading them about Israel's intentions. I believe the same could occur with Iran. Then again, that may have changed now that Israel and America are in bed together. Things changed dramtically after the Six Day war and the Yom Kippur War in the context of American/Israeli relations.

Americanadian
11-01-2007, 05:59 PM
They very well might be; covertly planning something, while publically saying something else.

No, I'm convinced there would be a democratic outcome, if we did this right. The Iranian people love the US and western freedoms, more than any other country in the region. The key is, only targeting IRGC bases and units, working closely with generals in the regular military and civilian dissident groups, so everybody is on the same page. If this were successful, we could avoid anything related to military action on the nuke sites. The average Iranian only want nuclear power, not weapons. So if this all went down right, I have no doubt they'd work with everybody on scrapping any WMD weapons programs. And if we square away Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria don't have the backing they need to maintain their present threat level. And Syria could be persuaded to normalize relations.


I'm not so sure Syria is really an enemy. America sent people there to be tortured. What's with that?

Americanadian
11-01-2007, 06:05 PM
The day that Dubya called Iran part of the Axis Of Evil was the day things started getting worse. We could have had open talks with Saddam and removed him without a single shot being fired.

We had the opportunity to negotiate with Iran many times even after we called them evil but we refuse.

We need a regime change inside the USA. Once that occurs we can seek to have diplomatic talks with Iran. We must have an open dialogue with them. Only then can we hope to gain the support of the those that can effect regime change inside Iran.

Remember all the white papers that were written about how the Iraqis would all support the US as soon as we toppled Saddam? They were wrong. Dead wrong.

I do believe that all the saber rattling is being done for 2 goals.

1. To raise oil profits
2. To gain votes


The end goal is to implement a Western friendly government in every country of the Middle East. Control is the agenda. I could delve into the religious aspects of the conflagration in regards to the imposition of western civilization into Muslim culture.

I am sure they found the resistance very surprising. It goes to show that presumptions can't always be counted on to win wars. Research everything first, and know thy enemy.

UserName
11-01-2007, 06:17 PM
Good point ac. They will never learn that puppet governments are useless and always come back to bite us in the ass. But Republicans are not well known for their intelligence.

Americanadian
11-01-2007, 06:22 PM
Good point ac. They will never learn that puppet governments are useless and always come back to bite us in the ass. But Republicans are not well known for their intelligence.

Well unfortunately, people keep electing these clowns into office which only drags America further into the abyss. Hopefully, people will avoid the Neoconartists for the next umpteen centuries. Then again, not everyone is an avid student of history either. I am sure it will repeat itself once again. :banghead:

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 09:46 PM
The day that Dubya called Iran part of the Axis Of Evil was the day things started getting worse. We could have had open talks with Saddam and removed him without a single shot being fired.

We had the opportunity to negotiate with Iran many times even after we called them evil but we refuse.



You really missed a lot of news. We talked and talked, but you won't acknowledge 12 years of trying to deal with Saddam and 5 years with Iran.

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 09:48 PM
I'm not so sure Syria is really an enemy. America sent people there to be tortured. What's with that?


Syria is a weak country and plays both sides whenever they can.

Smurf-Herder
11-01-2007, 09:56 PM
They're already working on that from what I've read.

I also agree with your assessment of Russia using Iran as the fall guy when push comes to shove. Egypt was in that situation in the Six day war. Russia has always held ties with Israel and Russia essentially ensured Egypt's defeat by misleading them about Israel's intentions. I believe the same could occur with Iran. Then again, that may have changed now that Israel and America are in bed together. Things changed dramtically after the Six Day war and the Yom Kippur War in the context of American/Israeli relations.

Here's something not talked about very much, that relates to all this:

Russia may relocate Black Sea Fleet to Syrian port
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060602/48956476.html