PDA

View Full Version : Former UN Official: US blocked certification that Iraq had no WMDs in 1990s


Jesse Hemingway
10-18-2007, 11:55 AM
By Alex Lantier
18 October 2007


In an interview with journalist Andrew Cockburn, former UN official Rolf Ekeus revealed that in 1997, the US acted to prevent UN officials from certifying that Iraq had complied with UN resolutions demanding that it destroy its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons and infrastructure.

Ekeus headed the UN Special Commission (Unscom), which inspected Iraqi weapons facilities from 1991 to 1999. Ekeus told Cockburn that in March 1997, “I was getting close to certifying that Iraq was in compliance with [UN] Resolution 687.” The resolution, adopted in 1991, listed the obligations imposed on Iraq after the US-led Persian Gulf War. It required Iraq to destroy all its chemical and biological weapons and related stocks, all ballistic missiles with a range of over 150 km and to place all its nuclear-usable material in the hands of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Though Ekeus did not say it, the inescapable conclusion is that UN officials knew the US-led hysteria over Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was a pack of lies. This information provides further proof of the premeditated and illegal character of the Iraq war.

Cockburn notes that “US officials were fearful that Iraq would be officially certified as weapons-free.” The threat of alleged Iraqi WMD was the main pretext for devastating sanctions against Iraq that were a key element of US Middle East policy throughout the 1990s. These sanctions were, moreover, increasingly controversial inside the US, as their immense toll in Iraqi lives became known to a section of the public.

On the May 12, 1996, CBS News “60 Minutes” broadcast, journalist Leslie Stahl had cited UNICEF estimates that 500,000 child deaths in Iraq were attributable to the UN sanctions and asked then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright if she thought this price was “worth it.” Albright infamously replied: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price—we think the price is worth it.”

Washington reacted quickly as it became clear that Unscom might destroy the public pretext for the UN sanctions. On March 26, 1997, Albright gave a speech on Iraq at Georgetown University in Washington. She admitted that Iraqi WMDs had been largely destroyed: “Iraq’s military threat to its neighbors is greatly diminished. Most of its missiles have been destroyed. Its biological and chemical warfare production facilities have been dismantled. Nuclear materials have been removed.”

Albright insisted, however, that sanctions should continue despite Iraqi disarmament: “We do not agree with the nations who argue that if Iraq complies with its obligations concerning weapons of mass destruction, sanctions should be lifted.” She said that Iraq had to “prove its peaceful intentions,” but that “Saddam Hussein’s intentions will never be peaceful,” adding that “a change in Iraq’s government could lead to a change in US policy.” In short, regime change in Iraq was official US policy as far back as 1997, under President Bill Clinton.

As Albright acknowledged, many governments—including nominal American “allies”—were trying to end UN sanctions against Iraq, as they competed with the US for oil and influence in the Middle East. American rivals in Europe and Asia threatened to freeze the US out of the Iraqi oil market, as Washington had burned its bridges with the Hussein regime. These tensions were compounded by the US insistence on a trade embargo against Iran—another major oil supplier—after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. European and Asian countries were increasingly violating both embargoes.

In an August 1996 interview with the International Herald Tribune, the CEO of French oil firm Total, Thierry Desmarest, openly criticized US policy: “What is becoming a bit extravagant is that the United States is alone against everyone.” He defended Total’s investments in oil fields in Iran and Libya, adding that Total was working with the French government to devise countermeasures against American firms, should the US take legal action against Total for breaking US embargoes on Iran and Libya.

In a September 1997 article, “Iraq and Iran Tempt World Energy Industry,” the New York Times wrote that these developments made “the American strategy of ‘dual containment’ against Iraq and Iran—in addition to the pressure exerted against Libya, another energy supplier—appear to be increasingly ineffective.” In a 1998 report, “The Mineral Industry of Iraq-1997,” the US Geological Survey (USGS) wrote that in 1997, “At least 40 international petroleum companies...were actively seeking production-sharing and development contracts with Iraq.”

The report listed France’s Total and Elf Aquitaine with contracts for the Bin Umar, Nahr Umar and Majnoun oil fields; Agip of Italy and Repsol of Spain, negotiating for the Nassiriyah field; Russian companies seeking access to the West Qurna field; Indian companies seeking to develop the Al-Halfaya field; and the China National Petroleum Corporation, which had a production-sharing agreement for the Ahdab field. In the face of UN sanctions, however, these companies did not begin pumping or exporting Iraqi oil.

The USGS concluded: “Iraq ultimately plans to develop its crude oil production capacity to 6 Mbbl/d [6 million barrels per day]. Iraq expects to achieve this goal within 7 years after the UN sanctions are lifted.” Had sanctions been lifted in 1997, such a performance would have made Iraq the world’s fourth oil producer in 2004. Iraq and Iran, both under US embargoes, would have accounted for nearly half of Middle East oil production.

In short, Washington’s Middle East policy risked leaving a decisive portion of world oil production in the hands of its rivals. Should Iran and Iraq have decided to sell their oil in currencies other than the US dollar, this would also have had unpredictable, potentially destabilizing effects on global currency markets. The UN-enforced isolation of Iraq—though increasingly politically and strategically untenable—was the main barrier to such developments.

The Clinton administration therefore stoked an utterly baseless media hysteria around Iraqi WMDs and fixed its Iraq policy around the maintenance of sanctions at all costs and preparations for war. Its goals were firstly to weaken Iraq and keep it ripe for a colonialist takeover, and more broadly to prevent a redistribution of influence in the region that would favor American imperialism’s rivals.

This history shows that the Bush administration’s 2003 invasion of Iraq flowed directly from the Clinton administration’s policy, whose trajectory had been unmistakably towards war. This was confirmed during the 2004 presidential campaign by James Rubin, a former State Department official who advised Democratic candidate John Kerry on national security issues. Rubin said that if Kerry had been president during Bush’s first term, the US would “in all probability” have invaded Iraq by then.

Ekeus resigned from his position as head of Unscom in May 1997. He was replaced by Australian Richard Butler, under whom Unscom would function ever more openly as a tool in an escalating campaign of provocation against Iraq. Butler demanded the right to carry out surprise inspections of presidential palaces in Iraq—a demand that Hussein, fearing assassination by US agents who had infiltrated Unscom, rejected. Washington seized upon this as a pretext to build up its forces in the Persian Gulf.

On February 17, 1998, President Clinton declared, in a speech to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the US was preparing for military action against Iraq. He asserted that American policy was open-ended war: “Following any strike, we will carefully monitor Iraq’s activities with all the means at our disposal. If [Hussein] seeks to rebuild his weapons of mass destruction, we will be prepared to strike him again.” However, a UN team negotiated a last-minute deal whereby Hussein granted Unscom access to the presidential palace and other sensitive sites, thus averting war.

US officials continued to work with Unscom to coordinate their activities for maximum effect, a fact that had become public by August 1998. At that time, the Washington Post revealed that Unscom routinely briefed the CIA on its findings. Scott Ritter, an Unscom inspector who was then advocating attacks on Iraq, also told the New York Times that American officials asked Unscom to time inspections to help US war propaganda.

According to Ritter, Unscom was asked to hold off inspections in October 1997 because “there was not enough military power in the region” to attack Iraq. In December 1997, US officials asked Unscom to hold off because “military action over the Christmas holidays was ‘domestically unsustainable’ ”—i.e., would be opposed by the American people.

After a series of crises over Unscom demands for ever more intrusive inspections, Unscom finally left Iraq after being denied admission to Ba’ath Party headquarters on December 9, 1998. One week later, the Clinton administration ordered the first large-scale air raids on Iraq. Bombings would continue throughout the rest of the Clinton administration and, with varying intensity, until the Bush administration’s 2003 invasion of Iraq.

radioguy
10-18-2007, 03:36 PM
There are two main reasons I question the credibility of this article.

First, The article stated that the former U.N. inspector was ready to certify that Iraq had met the conditions of resolution 687 concerning their WMD and banned weapons. I question the truthfulness of that claim, because just 3 months later on June 21st, the UN adopted and passed security council resolution 1115 (http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/scres/1997/9716832e.htm).

That resolution listed 8 items that Saddam had failed to comply with. The first two said:

1. Condemns the repeated refusal of the Iraqi authorities to allow access to sites designated by the Special Commission, which constitutes a clear and flagrant violation of the provisions of Security Council resolutions 687 (1991), 707 (1991), 715 (1991) and 1060 (1996)

2. Demands that Iraq cooperate fully with the Special Commission in accordance with the relevant resolutions; and that the Government of Iraq allow the Special Commission inspection teams immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to any and all areas, facilities, equipment, records and means of transportation which they wish to inspect in accordance with the mandate of the Special Commission;

If Iraq was refusing to allow inspectors access to sites where they could be hiding illegal weapons (as was stated in the above resolution), how in the hell could that inspector have been ready to sign off on resolution 687?

So, since it isn't possible that inspector could have been ready to sign off on resolution 687 (as was stated in the title of that article), how could the Clinton Administration have blocked anything?

The second reason I question that article, is because I did a google search and discovered that that article originates from one of the two obscure socialism websites it is posted on. It has not been picked up by the main stream media, or any other credible news outlet anywhere.

moonman
10-18-2007, 03:42 PM
There are two main reasons I question the credibility of this article.

First, The article stated that the former U.N. inspector was ready to certify that Iraq had met the conditions of resolution 687 concerning their WMD and banned weapons. I question the truthfulness of that claim, because just 3 months later on June 21st, the UN adopted and passed security council resolution 1115 (http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/scres/1997/9716832e.htm).

That resolution listed 8 items that Saddam had failed to comply with. The first two said:

1. Condemns the repeated refusal of the Iraqi authorities to allow access to sites designated by the Special Commission, which constitutes a clear and flagrant violation of the provisions of Security Council resolutions 687 (1991), 707 (1991), 715 (1991) and 1060 (1996)

2. Demands that Iraq cooperate fully with the Special Commission in accordance with the relevant resolutions; and that the Government of Iraq allow the Special Commission inspection teams immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to any and all areas, facilities, equipment, records and means of transportation which they wish to inspect in accordance with the mandate of the Special Commission;

If Iraq was refusing to allow inspectors access to sites where they could be hiding illegal weapons (as was stated in the above resolution), how in the hell could that inspector have been ready to sign off on resolution 687?

So, since it isn't possible that inspector could have been ready to sign off on resolution 687 (as was stated in the title of that article), how could the Clinton Administration have blocked anything?

The second reason I question that article, is because I did a google search and discovered that that article originates from one of the two obscure socialism websites it is posted on. It has not been picked up by the main stream media, or any other credible news outlet anywhere.

:talktothehand: :talktothehand: :talktothehand: :talktothehand:

Jesse Hemingway
10-18-2007, 11:24 PM
There are two main reasons I question the credibility of this article.

First, The article stated that the former U.N. inspector was ready to certify that Iraq had met the conditions of resolution 687 concerning their WMD and banned weapons. I question the truthfulness of that claim, because just 3 months later on June 21st, the UN adopted and passed security council resolution 1115 (http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/scres/1997/9716832e.htm).

That resolution listed 8 items that Saddam had failed to comply with. The first two said:

1. Condemns the repeated refusal of the Iraqi authorities to allow access to sites designated by the Special Commission, which constitutes a clear and flagrant violation of the provisions of Security Council resolutions 687 (1991), 707 (1991), 715 (1991) and 1060 (1996)

2. Demands that Iraq cooperate fully with the Special Commission in accordance with the relevant resolutions; and that the Government of Iraq allow the Special Commission inspection teams immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to any and all areas, facilities, equipment, records and means of transportation which they wish to inspect in accordance with the mandate of the Special Commission;

If Iraq was refusing to allow inspectors access to sites where they could be hiding illegal weapons (as was stated in the above resolution), how in the hell could that inspector have been ready to sign off on resolution 687?

So, since it isn't possible that inspector could have been ready to sign off on resolution 687 (as was stated in the title of that article), how could the Clinton Administration have blocked anything?

The second reason I question that article, is because I did a google search and discovered that that article originates from one of the two obscure socialism websites it is posted on. It has not been picked up by the main stream media, or any other credible news outlet anywhere.

So where are the WMD's?

I do not see in your fact checking that the WMD's were ever found the story is facutaly correct by the results of the Iraq disaster NO WMD's FOUND

Next logical step is?

All this article confirms is that the democrats and Clintons are in on this fraud too they new 1996 nothing was their in respect to WMD’s. Which leads to then next logical deduction that this entire group was involved with failing to actively prosecute the criminals behind 9/11 not the phony ass 9/11 commission report that is a feeble diversion. Once you read the article Clinton and all the others KNEW that the Iraq war was a fraud and said nothing and did nothing.

Jesse Hemingway
10-19-2007, 01:10 AM
"The second reason I question that article, is because I did a google search and discovered that that article originates from one of the two obscure socialism websites it is posted on. It has not been picked up by the main stream media, or any other credible news outlet anywhere"

I guess that may say more about main stream commerical media then anything else.

"from one of the two obscure socialism websites"

Interesting observation the story is not true because the main stream commercial media did not report it or because it was on a obscure socialist websites that did?

Sad state of afairs we are in ya think?

A socialist website is where we been reduce to find the truth my my you have done a heck of a job george w bush.

radioguy
10-19-2007, 03:06 AM
I can see debating you is going to be nearly impossible, because you can't seem to follow the bouncing ball very well. Here are some true/false questions for you Jesse, that I will also answer. The reason I'm going to answer them, is because there is only one possible answer for each of them anyway.

True or False: According to the article, in march 1997, former UN official Rolf Ekeus stated “I was getting close to certifying that Iraq was in compliance with Resolution 687.”
A: True

*note - Ekeus stated that in March 1997 he was getting [U]close to certifying that Iraq was in compliance with Resolution 687, not that he had already made that determination.


True or False: The UN had a list of sights that Unscom needed to inspect and clear, before they could certify that Iraq no longer possessed any of the illegal weapons or materials listed in Resolution 687.
A: True

True or False: In June 1997, the UN security council passed resolution 1115, which condemned the repeated refusals by Iraqi authorities, for not allowing weapons inspectors access to sites, and demanded that they cooperate fully with Unscom.
A: True

True or False: As of 1998 when Unscom pulled out of Iraq, Saddam had not complied with resolution 1115.
A: True

True or False: After the inspectors left Iraq in 1998, they never returned during the Clinton Administration.
A: True

True or False: The title of the article you posted is "Former UN Official: US blocked certification that Iraq had no WMDs in 1990s"
A: True
**********

Now Jesse, based on the fact that during the entire time the Clinton Administration was in office, Saddam never allowed weapons inspectors access to all the sites that Unscom needed to be inspect, and since we know that Unscom had to inspect all those sites before they could certify that Iraq was in compliance with resolution 687, could you please explain to me how the United States blocked a certification, that Iraq wasn't qualified to receive and Unscom was never prepared to give?

Jesse Hemingway
10-19-2007, 12:00 PM
This is not fox news any half wit knew when we left Iraq after the first gulf war Iraq was disarmed if Iraq was not totally disarmed then that was a total fuck up by bush again.

The facts are this bush knew there were no WMD’s Clinton knew there was no WMD’s. We invaded Iraq under the facts that WMD’s were in Iraq; which mean that there is NO difference between bush and clinton. That is the debate Radioguy not all the resolutions because they are meaning less because there were never any functional WMD’s after we left in the early 1990’s. So if you care about the United States Constitution you need to pay attention

radioguy
10-19-2007, 02:38 PM
This is not fox news any half wit knew when we left Iraq after the first gulf war Iraq was disarmed if Iraq was not totally disarmed then that was a total fuck up by bush again.

The facts are this bush knew there were no WMD’s Clinton knew there was no WMD’s. We invaded Iraq under the facts that WMD’s were in Iraq; which mean that there is NO difference between bush and clinton. That is the debate Radioguy not all the resolutions because they are meaning less because there were never any functional WMD’s after we left in the early 1990’s. So if you care about the United States Constitution you need to pay attention

Hey Jesse... We didn't invade Baghdad in the first gulf war, because we weren't there to remove Saddam. We were there defend Kuwait and our only goal was to get Saddams army out of there and give the country back to its rightful government.

Hey Jesse... Every single credible intelligence agency in the world believed Saddam had wmd, The members of the United Nations security council believed Saddam had WMD. Saddam himself declaired he had wmd. Everyone in the world outside of Iraq's inner circle, believed he had wmd.

Your beliefs are a baseless pile of unsubstantiated gibberish Jesse, that completely contradicts every official inquiry that's ever been launched, and each one of the more than half a dozen highly credible, bipartisan investigations that looked into the Iraq issue.

To put it into simpler terms, your accusations are nothing but fantasy and the evidence you use to justify this fantasy, comes from your very active imagination... not the real world.

Nice chatting with you Jesse, take care.

Jesse Hemingway
10-19-2007, 11:58 PM
Hey Jesse... We didn't invade Baghdad in the first gulf war, because we weren't there to remove Saddam. We were there defend Kuwait and our only goal was to get Saddams army out of there and give the country back to its rightful government.

Hey Jesse... Every single credible intelligence agency in the world believed Saddam had wmd, The members of the United Nations security council believed Saddam had WMD. Saddam himself declaired he had wmd. Everyone in the world outside of Iraq's inner circle, believed he had wmd.

Your beliefs are a baseless pile of unsubstantiated gibberish Jesse, that completely contradicts every official inquiry that's ever been launched, and each one of the more than half a dozen highly credible, bipartisan investigations that looked into the Iraq issue.

To put it into simpler terms, your accusations are nothing but fantasy and the evidence you use to justify this fantasy, comes from your very active imagination... not the real world.

Nice chatting with you Jesse, take care.

U.S. troops destroyed ammunitions caches in Khamisiyah, Iraq, on March 4 and March 10, 1991. Some of those weapons contained sarin and cyclosarin, two nerve gases.

The Pentagon has said more than 100,000 soldiers were exposed to low levels of nerve gas when the weapons were destroyed in Khamisiyah.

http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,FL_gas_060303,00.html

But Barry obtained original notes from Kamel's 1995 U.N. testimony. What Kamel actually said, Barry reports, is "that after the Gulf War, Iraq destroyed all its chemical and biological weapons stocks and the missiles to deliver them."

Kamel's report was "hushed up by the U.N. inspectors," Newsweek says. For its part, the Bush team has conveniently been citing only the part of Kamel's testimony in which he stated that Iraq still had blueprints and equipment for future weapons production.

http://www.ccmep.org/2003_articles/Iraq/031103_what_did_the_iraqi_defector_say.htm

V. The Situation Prior to the Second Gulf War

After UNSCOM inspectors left Iraq in December 1998, U.S.-led forces bombed many sites believed to be chemical weapon plants. After the bombing, reports emerged that Iraq had rebuilt many of those sites, and that the sites appeared to be operating. It was inferred that Iraq had resumed its production of chemical weapons, and was adding new elements to the portion of its previous stockpile that had never been accounted for. No evidence confirming these inferences has emerged to date.

http://www.iraqwatch.org/profiles/chemical.html

The ISG did not find evidence of a reconstituted nuclear program or stockpiles of WMD. Instead, in its comprehensive report released on 30 September 2004, the ISG confirmed that Saddam Hussein effectively ended Iraq’s nuclear program following the first Gulf War in 1991 and did not direct a coordinated effort to restart the program thereafter. The ISG report does describe Saddam Hussein’s intention to rebuild his WMD capabilities after international sanctions were removed, however. To that end, the ISG uncovered evidence that the regime sought to conceal documents from its nuclear program following the 1991 war as well as maintain an intellectual capacity among scientists who might be involved in future activities aimed at restarting a nuclear weapons program. In addition, the report concludes that Saddam Hussein purposefully sought to spread ambiguity about his WMD capabilities in order to avoid appearing weak and to deter aggression. Meanwhile, shortly after the ISG’s findings were published, troubling new reports emerged about missing nuclear-related equipment and materials in Iraq which, according to the IAEA, has been disappearing from previously monitored sites since the start of the war in 2003.

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iraq/index.html

Iraq 'ended nuclear aims in 1991'


No banned weapons have been found despite intensive searches
The head of Iraq's nuclear programme under Saddam Hussein has said Iraq destroyed its nuclear weapons programme in 1991 and never restarted it.
Jafar Dhia Jafar told the BBC sanctions and inspections worked in stopping the reconstitution of the programme.

He also said Iraq's chemical and biological weapons programmes were destroyed after the first Gulf War and never reactivated.

Mr Jafar ran Iraq's nuclear programme for nearly 25 years.

One of the most powerful arguments in the case for war on Iraq was the US and UK's claim Saddam Hussein was trying to restart his nuclear programme.

Equipment 'destroyed'

But Mr Jafar, whom the former Iraqi leader originally asked to build the country's nuclear bomb, said all nuclear development stopped in July 1991, under the orders of Saddam Hussein.


There was no capability - there was no chemical or biological or any of what are called weapons of mass destruction

Jafar Dhia Jafar
Watch his interview

He said he was probably a few years away from producing a nuclear bomb.

However, Iraq would not have had the resources under the sanctions regime to continue the programme, he said in his first broadcast interview - aired on BBC's Newsnight programme on Wednesday night.


He added the Iraqi leader had hoped that UN sanctions would be lifted soon, adding that Iraq's strategic aims became ineffective when the US and UK became its adversaries.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3556714.stm

Former U.N. Inspectors Cite New Report as Validation

By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, October 8, 2004; Page A30

Two former chief United Nations weapons inspectors said yesterday that the latest report on Saddam Hussein's weapons programs proved that U.N. sanctions, inspections and monitoring had succeeded in keeping the Iraqi leader's illicit arms programs in check from 1991 until the invasion of March 2003.

The report released Wednesday by U.S. weapons inspector Charles A. Duelfer confirmed that the Iraqi leader had destroyed his chemical and biological weapons stockpiles in the 1990s and had effectively ended his elementary efforts to pursue nuclear weapons.



Rolf Ekeus says the new report on Iraqi weapons proves the U.N.'s effectiveness. (File Photo)

_____In Today's Post_____

• Hussein's Aims, Capabilities Often Differed (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2004)
• U.S. Delaying Action on Violators of Iraq Sanctions (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2004)
• 1,300 Oil Vouchers Begin to Tell Story (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2004)
• Privacy Act, Order Shielded U.S. Names on List (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2004)
• Many Helped Iraq Evade U.N. Sanctions On Weapons (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2004)





___ Intelligence News ___


• Nominations of Negroponte, Deputy Backed (Post, April 15, 2005 )

• Papers Say Leak Probe Is Over (Post, April 7, 2005 )

• Panel Seeks Intelligence Culpability (Post, April 2, 2005 )



• Full Coverage From The Post



___ The Intel Debate ___
• Commentary & Opinion
• Post Editorials



___ Postwar Iraq ___


_____ Request for Photos_____

Duty In Iraq
We want to give you the opportunity to show firsthand what it is like to live and work in Iraq.



_____ Latest News _____
• Iraqi Legislator Slain, Underscoring Danger
• Iraqi Unit Brings Calm To a Rebel Stronghold
• Iraq Has Government, Next Leader Declares

• More Coverage


_____ U.S. Military Deaths _____

Faces of the Fallen
Portraits of U.S. service members who have died in Iraq since the beginning of the war.






_____Message Boards_____
• Post Your Comments





Free E-mail Newsletters
Today's Headlines & Columnists
See a Sample | Sign Up Now
Daily Politics News & Analysis
See a Sample | Sign Up Now
Federal Insider
See a Sample | Sign Up Now
Breaking News Alerts
See a Sample | Sign Up Now

"We can see today that the inspections worked," said Rolf Ekeus, the director of the first United Nations Special Commission and former Swedish ambassador to the United States, who led the first inspectors into Iraq in 1991. Ekeus said the report documented that most all of Hussein's weapons and prohibited production equipment and facilities had by 1995 either been destroyed or placed in non-weapons activities.

Hans Blix, the chief U.N. inspector from 2000 to 2003, said in a telephone interview from Sweden that Duelfer's report showed that "international inspection is another means of war without fighting

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A16221-2004Oct7?language=printer

Even the US Department of Defense recognises that claims about Iraq's imminent production of a nuclear bomb are not credible: "Iraq would need five or more years and key foreign assistance to rebuild the infrastructure to enrich enough material for a nuclear weapon" (January 2001 intelligence estimate). However, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) managed to hit the headlines in September 2002 by claiming that Iraq "could assemble nuclear weapons within months if fissile material from foreign sources were obtained." This claim is no more than a tautology.

As a result, many of the claims may be exaggerated, highly speculative or simply concocted. US State Department officials have often mentioned that they do not take verbal information obtained from defectors seriously; it may be more plausible to assume that their information is publicised more as part of attempts to win support for a war than to make a realistic assessment of Iraqi weapons development.

817 out of Iraq's known 819 ballistic missiles had been certifiably destroyed. On the worst-case assumption that Iraq has salvaged some of the parts for these missiles and has reconstructed them since 1998, even Charles Duelfer - former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, deputy head of Unscom and strong proponent of an invasion of Iraq - has provided an estimate of only 12 to 14 missiles held by Iraq. Even under this scenario, it is difficult to see Iraq posing a threat to the rest of the world through its missiles. Furthermore, biological weapons cannot be effectively disbursed through ballistic missiles. According to the IISS, much of the biological agent would be destroyed on impact and the area of dispersal would be small. For example, if anthrax is filled into missile warheads, up to 95% of the content is not dispersed (according to the Director of Intelligence of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff:

On each of these four points, the US in particular stands in clear violation of the terms of the agreement.

The consequences of that violation have been apparent in the deterioration of the weapons inspections system. Garry B. Dillon, the Director of Operations of the IAEA Action Team in Iraq from January 1994, and its head from June 1997, characterised Iraq's compliance with the nuclear inspectorate from late 1991 to mid-1998 as "essentially adequate" (in the paper cited above). Dillon concludes that "Iraq’s motivation to cooperate was shattered by the statement [by the then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright] that, regardless of Iraq’s compliance, the embargo and the sanctions would not be lifted as long as President Saddam Hussein remained in power". Backing a "carrot and stick" approach to Iraq, Dillon argues that "the carrot should represent a tangible benefit, not merely the withholding of the stick. Indeed, during 1998, Iraq repeatedly claimed that 'the light at the end of the tunnel had gone out.'"

If the US and UK re-engage with the political process that was laid out in the ceasefire resolution, Iraq will once again be provided with reasons to cooperate with the weapons inspectorate. That possibility, which will remove the need for instigating a humanitarian crisis inside Iraq and instability in the region, should not be dismissed lightly.

http://middleeastreference.org.uk/latw020916.html

Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has oft noted in answer to such queries that "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." As if in answer to this stupefying casuistry, Ritter states that "[I]f Iraq was producing weapons today, we would have definitive proof" because chemical and biological weapons emit vented detectable gasses and nuclear weapons generate gamma ray emissions that are perceptible via satellite.

http://www.wpunj.edu/~newpol/issue34/finger34.htm

Where, O Where Have the WMDs Gone?
By Chris Weinkopf
FrontPageMagazine.com | Wednesday, April 02, 2003

TWO WEEKS into Operation Iraqi Freedom, the talking heads who once warned of a fierce, bloody, and protracted struggle can’t believe that total victory has yet to be achieved.

Those who once fretted about the Bush Administration’s "rush to war" can’t understand why allied forces haven’t simply marched into Baghdad. And after lamenting for months about the "massive military buildup" that preceded the war, they now wring their hands about American forces being undermanned and ill-equipped.

Forget about truth; consistency is the first casualty of this war.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID={E133DCD0-4A37-4400-822F-ABF66DD504C4}