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Bill Cosby
01-22-2011, 03:52 PM
Climate change study had 'significant error': experts (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110119/ts_afp/climatewarmingfood_20110119163335)

WASHINGTON (AFP) A climate change study that projected a 2.4 degree Celsius increase in temperature and massive worldwide food shortages in the next decade was seriously flawed, scientists said Wednesday.
The study was posted on the website of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and was written about by numerous international news agencies, including AFP.
But AAAS later retracted the study as experts cited numerous errors in its approach.
"A reporter with The Guardian alerted us yesterday to concerns about the news release submitted by Hoffman & Hoffman public relations," said AAAS spokeswoman Ginger Pinholster in an email to AFP.
"We immediately contacted a climate change expert, who confirmed that the information raised many questions in his mind, too. We swiftly removed the news release from our Web site and contacted the submitting organization."
Scientist Osvaldo Canziani, who was part of the 2007 Nobel Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was listed as the scientific advisor to the report.
The IPCC, whose figures were cited as the basis for the study's projections, and Al Gorehttp://cdn3.pjtv.com/content-images/al-gore-hands_40x40.jpg jointly won the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2007 "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change," the prize committee said at the time.
Canziani's spokesman said Tuesday he was ill and was unavailable for interviews.
The study cited the UN group's figures for its projections, combined with "the business-as-usual path the world is currently following," said lead author Liliana Hisas of the Universal Ecological Fund (UEF), a non-profit group headquartered in Argentina.
But climate scientist Rey Weymann told AFP that the "study contains a significant error in that it confuses 'equilibrium' temperature rise with 'transient temperature rise.'"
He also noted that study author Hisas was told of the problems in advance of the report's release.
"The author of the study was told by several of us about this error but she said it was too late to change it," said Weymann.
Scientist Scott Mandia forwarded to AFP an email he said he sent to Hisas ahead of publication explaining why her figures did not add up, and noting that it would take "quite a few decades" to reach a warming level of 2.4 degrees Celsius.
"Even if we assume the higher end of the current warming rate, we should only be 0.2C warmer by 2020 than today," Mandia wrote.
"To get to +2.4C the current trend would have to immediately increase almost ten-fold."
Mandia described the mishap as an "honest and common mistake," but said the matter would certainly give fuel to skeptics of humans' role in climate change.
"More alarmism," said Mandia. "Don't get me wrong. We are headed to 2.4, it is just not going to happen in 2020."
Many people do not understand the cumulative effect of carbon emissions and how they impact climate change, Mandia said.
"This is something that people don't appreciate. We tied a record in 2010 (for temperature records) globally. That is primarily from the C02 we put in the atmosphere in the 70s and early 80s, and we have been ramping up since then," he said.
"So it is not good. We are seeing the response from a mistake we were making 20 years ago, and we are making bigger mistakes today."
The public relations firm that issued the report on the UEF's behalf said the group stands by the study and would issue a statement to that effect.

Rhodium
02-05-2011, 11:08 AM
Alarmism sucks. Politics in science sucks. Bias in science sucks. People using the cold or the warm to prove/disprove (A)GW sucks. People confusing GW with AGW sucks. Using scalar measurements for vector quantities sucks. Downplaying negative feedbacks sucks. People thinking there is no valid peer reviewed criticisms sucks. I am am so sick of debating this issue, sucks.

Bill Cosby
02-05-2011, 02:11 PM
I find it still somewhat interesting..........

That is a lot of sucking........ Some even say there is no such thing as gravity, the earth just sucks......lol

I think it is a great place, well as long as your not in an igloo @ -60 up in Kanakistan...........

It is mid winter here in the Northern Hem & here in Nor Cal we will be enjoying about 70 degrees today........

That seems odd to me..........

Ppl are already starting to suffer their spring time allergies (We are probably the worst in the country)........

:dunno:

Patrick Henry
02-05-2011, 05:12 PM
I live in Arkansas and I just got a natural gas bill of $170.00. I disagree this much as to what or who sucks. The politicians and their bribed science officers suck. As to their ideas, they are Bullshit and unless you STEP in it by your desire to believe ,that is when the sucking action takes place. Incidently in my central Arkansas coordinates we have near zero weather and snow on the ground this very day. The Sun came out and still it is not melted entirely. We will see dusk 2 hours hence so the melting will not be done TODAY. And no chance tomorrow if more snow arrives. The arrogance of the warming crowd is preposterous. My little fossil fuel car can no more make the earth hot than me and a handful of friends can crest the Arkansas river above flood stage by urinating in it. It is appropriate that the Nobel committee asked Algore for his prize back. Only tiny infantile minds buy this chicken little "the earth is melting-sky is falling" bullshit.
:crazzy:

Rhodium
02-05-2011, 05:31 PM
I find it still somewhat interesting..........

I have been debating it for over 10 years (not GW in of of itself, but the hypothesis that humans are the key mechanism by which it happens). Even among scientists it always ends up in theoretics, which is interesting if the person knows what he or she is talking about, but unfortunately not many can't get beyond the very basics of the green house effect. I will probably never really quite debating it.


That is a lot of sucking........ Some even say there is no such thing as gravity, the earth just sucks......lol

I will save the AWE style comment about sucking :)

LOL. There really is a website like that, they attempt to disprove gravity, I think I posted it over at LTH.


I think it is a great place, well as long as your not in an igloo @ -60 up in Kanakistan...........

It is mid winter here in the Northern Hem & here in Nor Cal we will be enjoying about 70 degrees today........

That seems odd to me..........

Ppl are already starting to suffer their spring time allergies (We are probably the worst in the country)........

:dunno:

Yeah, but so much weather can be odd. I just dug out of 18" of snow, but hey it is Chicago and this is what happens in the winter - the 70s blizzards were much worse. The 30s drought, ice ages, deglaciation periods, the year without a summer, etc, etc. One of the problems is we have technology way beyond what we used to. We never knew the thickness, shrinking and melting of the ice caps to the nth decimal place just 20 years ago.

Bill Cosby
02-06-2011, 02:59 AM
I live in Arkansas and I just got a natural gas bill of $170.00.
:crazzy:

Is that a month?? WTF??

I have never had a monthly gas bill that high......... I know some of my neighbors have high bills for gas but this is usually about $100 in the coldest months to keep it around 70 degrees...... :o

Bill Cosby
02-06-2011, 03:04 AM
I have been debating it for over 10 years (not GW in of of itself, but the hypothesis that humans are the key mechanism by which it happens). Even among scientists it always ends up in theoretics, which is interesting if the person knows what he or she is talking about, but unfortunately not many can't get beyond the very basics of the green house effect. I will probably never really quite debating it.



I will save the AWE style comment about sucking :)

LOL. There really is a website like that, they attempt to disprove gravity, I think I posted it over at LTH.



Yeah, but so much weather can be odd. I just dug out of 18" of snow, but hey it is Chicago and this is what happens in the winter - the 70s blizzards were much worse. The 30s drought, ice ages, deglaciation periods, the year without a summer, etc, etc. One of the problems is we have technology way beyond what we used to. We never knew the thickness, shrinking and melting of the ice caps to the nth decimal place just 20 years ago.

There has been many weather extremes or perhaps norms??? I recall reading about ppl walking from Brooklyn to Staten Island......... :dunno:

Disprove gravity............:lmao2: :lmao2:

Post a link to it or better yet start a thread......... That could be interesting.......LMAO

marcla88
02-07-2011, 09:14 AM
I find it still somewhat interesting..........

That is a lot of sucking........



It is mid winter here in the Northern Hem & here in Nor Cal we will be enjoying about 70 degrees today........

That seems odd to me..........


:dunno:


the earth has been in existence in a time unknown to everybody.
how could you make a comment such as, when the longest period
of time a man could ever live and produce an
observation of the climate of this earth is not even over
120 years.


"That seems odd to me"

marcla88

you seem odd to me.

Keyser Soze
02-07-2011, 11:29 AM
I have no problem understanding and accepting that mankind has an impact on the earths systems and that we are contributing to climate change and instability. Ignoring it won't make any difference anymore than ignoring peak oil will...it will still happen. Mankind is committing suicide and taking most of the fauna with us...the fastest extinction rate short of a cataclysmic event. We are doing that...so why is it a leap for some people to understand our impact on the climate?

http://www.whole-systems.org/extinctions.html

Patrick Henry
02-07-2011, 12:58 PM
Is that a month?? WTF??

I have never had a monthly gas bill that high......... I know some of my neighbors have high bills for gas but this is usually about $100 in the coldest months to keep it around 70 degrees...... :o
Yeah well , we got this wonderful "don't give a shit about the peasants..if you can't afford our city GTFO" mayor in North Little Rock, who recently signed a utilities contact that guaranteed every citizen a 40% increase in utilities, even for a 4 room shack we had a AC bill of near 300.00 last summer The city is already showing contempt for citizens who need to spend a bare mininum of 150.00 or more in utilities just for their survival. Your existence is just an inconvenient truth to these morons so you have to pay extra to "ruin" the environment. This is an Unfortunate coincidence, but our mayor's name is Patrick Henry Hayes, an unlikely name for a tyrant ,you'd think but.....:D YES all my figures in here are per MONTH

Bill Cosby
02-07-2011, 01:04 PM
the earth has been in existence in a time unknown to everybody.
how could you make a comment such as, when the longest period
of time a man could ever live and produce an
observation of the climate of this earth is not even over
120 years.


"That seems odd to me"

marcla88

you seem odd to me.


What exactly was wrong w/ my comment??

Ppl do not live long.............. So what............

The glaciers on Kilimanjaro are 100,000+ years old........... I don't need to have lived that long to know that..

I can see they are almost gone..........

I think it is in 8th grade science were we learn that if we add various non inert compounds to a solution, something will, not might happen..........

What will happen is simply based on what & how much..

Anything you disagree w/ here so far??

Bill Cosby
02-07-2011, 01:16 PM
I have no problem understanding and accepting that mankind has an impact on the earths systems and that we are contributing to climate change and instability. Ignoring it won't make any difference anymore than ignoring peak oil will...it will still happen. Mankind is committing suicide and taking most of the fauna with us...the fasted extinction rate short of a cataclysmic event. We are doing that...so why is it a leap for some people to understand our impact on the climate?

http://www.whole-systems.org/extinctions.html

Honestly I think some just don't wanna believe it, so they aint.............

While they will demand irrefutable facts, most of which they are intellectually & educationally unprepared to process..

So most often they mock & scorn what is presented to them, not because it lacks validity but rather their inability to get their mind around it........

I see this primitive thinking something akin to this.........

Take a person walking in the park, they step in some dog crap....... They don't say this can't be, I see no dog, nor did I see a dog leave this here & so continue on.........

No they grab a stick & get to scraping & hope no one saw them........:lmao2:

cottonbroker1
02-07-2011, 03:44 PM
Yeah well , we got this wonderful "don't give a shit about the peasants..if you can't afford our city GTFO" mayor in North Little Rock, who recently signed a utilities contact that guaranteed every citizen a 40% increase in utilities, even for a 4 room shack we had a AC bill of near 300.00 last summer The city is already showing contempt for citizens who need to spend a bare mininum of 150.00 or more in utilities just for their survival. Your existence is just an inconvenient truth to these morons so you have to pay extra to "ruin" the environment. This is an Unfortunate coincidence, but our mayor's name is Patrick Henry Hayes, an unlikely name for a tyrant ,you'd think but.....:D YES all my figures in here are per MONTHI used to live in Little Rock and yes, the utilities are very high there....my combined monthly utilities averaged about 250+ and I was not even home most of the time....it was beyond ridiculous....

Bill Cosby
02-07-2011, 04:37 PM
???? why so high there?? That sounds extreme..

Rhodium
02-07-2011, 05:03 PM
What exactly was wrong w/ my comment??

Ppl do not live long.............. So what............

The glaciers on Kilimanjaro are 100,000+ years old........... I don't need to have lived that long to know that..

I can see they are almost gone..........

I think it is in 8th grade science were we learn that if we add various non inert compounds to a solution, something will, not might happen..........

What will happen is simply based on what & how much..

Anything you disagree w/ here so far??


Sorry, Marcia is one of ours.


Marica, how many times do I have to tell you. Premise, Premise, Conclusion. Writing couplets is not philosophy.

EldonG
02-07-2011, 05:17 PM
Rhodium here is the only poster that has ever made me doubt AGW in the least, but my biggest issue is...the predictions I heard as a child are happening...right down the line. I'm not an alarmist. Al Gore has no concept of the crap he yammers. If his scenarios were the case, we'd already be looking at extinction level events, all around the world, starting five years ago.

Whether it's AGW, or just simple GW, it's very real, and the uneducated hicks that have taken to call snow 'global warming' are utterly clueless. It is an issue worthy of concern, even if we aren't causing it - though if we aren't, why is the theory so predictive?

Again...I'm not an alarmist. I don't want legislation. I want rationality.

Rhodium
02-07-2011, 05:27 PM
Rhodium here is the only poster that has ever made me doubt AGW in the least, but my biggest issue is...the predictions I heard as a child are happening...right down the line. I'm not an alarmist. Al Gore has no concept of the crap he yammers. If his scenarios were the case, we'd already be looking at extinction level events, all around the world, starting five years ago.

Whether it's AGW, or just simple GW, it's very real, and the uneducated hicks that have taken to call snow 'global warming' are utterly clueless. It is an issue worthy of concern, even if we aren't causing it - though if we aren't, why is the theory so predictive?

Again...I'm not an alarmist. I don't want legislation. I want rationality.

You are not an alarmist and I don't doubt climate change in and of itself (as you know). I question the mechanism and to date, I am not convinced. We have every reason to get off of the fossil fuels, but I don't believe AGW is one of them. Just to add, even if the proposed hypothesis is 100% correct, many feel it is too late anyway.

And I can't stand either side using weather to substitute for climate. Climate, in its very least, should be decadal timescales, not seasonal or annual timescales.

Uneducated, bible thumping hicks is just one of the reasons I don't want to debate it anymore. People lump me with them. Hello, I am a prochoice, agnostic, pro marijuana legalization, gay man who thinks the bible is a fairytale. I don't think the Right will have me.

Rhodium
02-07-2011, 05:33 PM
I remember why I debated this issue. Politics is icky.

T-Cat
02-07-2011, 05:37 PM
You are not an alarmist and I don't doubt climate change in and of itself (as you know). I question the mechanism and to date, I am not convinced.What is about the mechanism that you question?

EldonG
02-07-2011, 07:03 PM
You are not an alarmist and I don't doubt climate change in and of itself (as you know). I question the mechanism and to date, I am not convinced. We have every reason to get off of the fossil fuels, but I don't believe AGW is one of them. Just to add, even if the proposed hypothesis is 100% correct, many feel it is too late anyway.

And I can't stand either side using weather to substitute for climate. Climate, in its very least, should be decadal timescales, not seasonal or annual timescales.

Uneducated, bible thumping hicks is just one of the reasons I don't want to debate it anymore. People lump me with them. Hello, I am a prochoice, agnostic, pro marijuana legalization, gay man who thinks the bible is a fairytale. I don't think the Right will have me.
LOL!
I don't want 'em to have you. I like rational thinkers on 'our' side...frankly, we have too many irrationals, too. We're largely in agreement on an awful lot...you understand the science a heck of a lot better than me, so I give credit where credit is due...but I still think the original theory has been remarkably predictive to be wrong.

People only think it's too late because of the idiot alarmists...and that bugs me almost as bad as the uneducated that confuse weather and climate.

EldonG
02-07-2011, 07:04 PM
I remember why I debated this issue. Politics is icky.
Seconded.

Politics blows chunks.

Bill Cosby
02-07-2011, 09:14 PM
I remember why I debated this issue. Politics is icky.

Yes politics can be messy but so can lots of other things......

I have a friend that is a Mod on a Ukulele board (yea the little guitar thing)... He said they fight all the time...........:lmao2:

I think it is just part of our nature..............:o :(

cottonbroker1
02-07-2011, 09:33 PM
Yes politics can be messy but so can lots of other things......

I have a friend that is a Mod on a Ukulele board (yea the little guitar thing)... He said they fight all the time...........:lmao2:

I think it is just part of our nature..............:o
fighting amongst themselves on a Ukulele board??? thats awesome...:D :lmao2:

Bill Cosby
02-07-2011, 09:50 PM
fighting amongst themselves on a Ukulele board??? thats awesome...:D :lmao2:


It is a big board but he even has to ban ppl cause they keep doing it.......:lmao2:

cottonbroker1
02-07-2011, 10:17 PM
It is a big board but he even has to ban ppl cause they keep doing it.......:lmao2:he has to ban those good Ukelele people just partaking in a little fellowship??....lmao....!!! thats too funny....errr...I mean thats awful...just terrible I say....:D :D :lmao2:Ukeleles gone wild...!!!!

EldonG
02-08-2011, 12:17 AM
I just gotta post this here:

qadUoaWkRW8

Bill Cosby
02-08-2011, 01:49 AM
he has to ban those good Ukelele people just partaking in a little fellowship??....lmao....!!! thats too funny....errr...I mean thats awful...just terrible I say....:D :D :lmao2:Ukeleles gone wild...!!!!
:lmao2:

They are some wild & crazy guys...........lol

Patrick Henry
02-09-2011, 04:06 PM
I used to live in Little Rock and yes, the utilities are very high there....my combined monthly utilities averaged about 250+ and I was not even home most of the time....it was beyond ridiculous....
Its really gotten worse since you "escaped" I can't really speak to the south side of the river,but I believe you cannot afford to be a low income indigent on either side. You can't sell apples and expect to scrape by here. You starve or move away which is what the city fathers look forward to,apparently. Those who stay become the cash cows for the despots in charge. No behavior is beneath these tyrannical bastards,including nonstop speedtrapping on the minor arteries and side streets, so that they can enhance revenues without violating the letter of Arkansas speedtrap ban law. In fact most police behavior in Arkansas is about enhancement of local treasuries, I don't think a citation has been issued for safety reasons in decades.

Bill Cosby
02-09-2011, 05:00 PM
We went through that same thing here......... It is better now......

When the amount of tix went up ten fold (no shit x10) the community began to question it...........

In an interview w/ the local media the police chief was confronted about it & he blurted out that the area was not covered very well before & that is the reason.......

The local head of the highway patrol took a piece of his ass for that- the level of tix dropped dramatically..........

But technology came to the rescue- photo enforced intersections--->>$$$$$$

serum114
02-10-2011, 01:35 PM
FJUA4cm0Rck

Bill Cosby
02-10-2011, 04:30 PM
Great clip............:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Everyone should watch this.......

EldonG
02-11-2011, 05:13 PM
FJUA4cm0Rck
Noam is a bright guy. Good stuff.

Bill Cosby
02-11-2011, 10:40 PM
I watch, listen & read anything I can from Noam...... I have several audio books & speeches I listen to while working, kayaking etc............ Good stuff.....