The Run Up To Iran

[Linkster]

Sy Hersh has a good article in the New Yorker - http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh
although it does explain pretty well whats happening - it also is part of the publicity needed to sell it to the US citizens and even shows exactly how it is

Still no question in my mind we're gonna hit them soon - and like I posted a month ago it would take some publicity to pull off - which we are now in the middle of - so not long to go

[Smurf-Herder]

Sy Hersh has a good article in the New Yorker - http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh
although it does explain pretty well whats happening - it also is part of the publicity needed to sell it to the US citizens and even shows exactly how it is

Still no question in my mind we're gonna hit them soon - and like I posted a month ago it would take some publicity to pull off - which we are now in the middle of - so not long to go

And Iran appears to be doing the same thing.

Putting Shahab-3 missiles in Syria is kind of a waste of a 2,000 km range missile - unless the intended target is Europe.

[Linkster]

Still would be a waste - they could put them up in Tabriz and be closer than Syria flight-time wise

[Smurf-Herder]

Still would be a waste - they could put them up in Tabriz and be closer than Syria flight-time wise


You still don't need 2,000 km range missiles for Israel or the Gulf. And yet, they are deploying missiles in Syria and Sudan; giving them a much greater range capability.

[Linkster]

Thats what Im trying to figure out - they have areas in Iran - Tabriz is one - that is closer to Europe than Syria - so where else could it be designed for?

[Linkster]

The other issue is that the number used for its range is really over estimated - that would be without any sort of warhead attached. With a heavy warhead which you would have to figure they would want to cause the most damage, the range is 1300 km.
I know when they used them against Iraq (the MKO were running terrorist camps and using them as bases to attack Iran) in 2001 (around spring time) they fired about 60 or 70 of them and had very little accuracy down range. Most attributed that to just not real good intelligence in Iran at the time.

[Smurf-Herder]

Thats what Im trying to figure out - they have areas in Iran - Tabriz is one - that is closer to Europe than Syria - so where else could it be designed for?

First of all, I think they played Assad into being the pointman. He bought all kinds of state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft equipment. Yet the Israeli's got through. So I think he's having second thoughts.

Syria is perfect for taking some of the heat off of Iran proper, as a target for retaliation. Diverting concentration of our forces. And forcing Iran's allies into a conflict with them.

Secondly, it gives them a great base for anti-ship cruise missiles, against NATO targets in the Mediterranean.

But remember, this includes Sudan as well. So it does give them an overall greater missile umbrella.

[Smurf-Herder]

The other issue is that the number used for its range is really over estimated - that would be without any sort of warhead attached. With a heavy warhead which you would have to figure they would want to cause the most damage, the range is 1300 km.
I know when they used them against Iraq (the MKO were running terrorist camps and using them as bases to attack Iran) in 2001 (around spring time) they fired about 60 or 70 of them and had very little accuracy down range. Most attributed that to just not real good intelligence in Iran at the time.

They made a big point last year of having increased the range to 2000 km; with greater accuracy in the Shahab-3, having modified the re-entry module with steering jets and advanced guidance systems. And considering the Shahab-3D has a nosecone modified to carry nukes, how accurate do they need to be?

[Betty Blowtorch]

Thats what Im trying to figure out - they have areas in Iran -
Tabriz is one - that is closer to Europe than Syria -
so where else could it be designed for?
I see no reason to think that Iran will attack Europe
with missiles. Iran will be attacked from the air by
the U.S. or Israel. Iran will retaliate against one or
both of these aggressors, not innocent Europeans.

Iran will retaliate against U.S. Navy ships in the gulf
and U.S. military targets in Kuwait and Iraq, such as
the Green Zone in Baghdad. Iran may try to block
the Strait of Hormuz by sinking merchant shipping.

If Iran has sent missiles to Syria, it's because Syria
is right next to Israel. Apparently Iran and Syria are
preparing to be attacked by Israel and/or the U.S.

[Smurf-Herder]

I see no reason to think that Iran will attack Europe
with missiles. Iran will be attacked from the air by
the U.S. or Israel. Iran will retaliate against one or
both of these aggressors, not innocent Europeans.

Iran will retaliate against U.S. Navy ships in the gulf
and U.S. military targets in Kuwait and Iraq, such as
the Green Zone in Baghdad. Iran may try to block
the Strait of Hormuz by sinking merchant shipping.

If Iran has sent missiles to Syria, it's because Syria
is right next to Israel. Apparently Iran and Syria are
preparing to be attacked by Israel and/or the U.S.


I wouldn't be so sure about Europe not being on Iran's target list, in some way.

Iran drawing up plans to strike European nuclear plants, analysts tells British lawmakers
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/22/europe/EU-POL-Britain-Iran.php

[Linkster]

I think I did a post about this before - but I have a real problem with the "Strait of Hormuz by sinking merchant shipping" part - that would take some real targetting feats - although I see a lot of political commentators in the MSM talk about it - really doesnt make any sense as Iran doesnt have any access to that area without going through a bunch of other countries first

[Betty Blowtorch]

I think I did a post about this before - but I have a real problem
with the "Strait of Hormuz by sinking merchant shipping" part -
that would take some real targetting feats - although I see a lot
of political commentators in the MSM talk about it - really doesnt
make any sense as Iran doesnt have any access to that area
without going through a bunch of other countries first
You confused me for a minute, so I had to check a map
to see if my memory was playing tricks on me.

Here's a map of Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is down near the
bottom. I don't know how accurate the Iranian missiles are,
but they would have an easy straight shot at any ships in
the strait.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/9261/iranmapom7.gif

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/4114/straitofhormuzresizesmaus9.jpg

[disrupter]

I find it troubling that we take this all so casually.

We act as if the US government is not our own.

The American people will inevitably pay for what current political leadership does.

I wouldn't be too cavalier about it.

Maybe the plan is to get the US entangled in a hot war with Iran, making extraction from the region even more complicated.

If our nation unilaterally attacks Iran they will be demonstrably clinically insane. & anyone putting a bullet through them will be doing a patriotic duty for this nation.

[Linkster]

Betty - you are totally correct - I dont know where my head was - I was thinking back to when someone spouted off about the fake Al Qaeda in Iraq stopping the flow of ships there - my mistake :thumbsup:

[Smurf-Herder]

Betty - you are totally correct - I dont know where my head was - I was thinking back to when someone spouted off about the fake Al Qaeda in Iraq stopping the flow of ships there - my mistake :thumbsup:

Also a note on that. There are three islands at the mouth of the straits that Iran has turned into missile bases. And Bandar Abbas is Iran's major naval base on the strait, which is also an airbase and missile production facility. Iran also has the new mach 2 Sunburn anti-ship missiles, with a range of over 200 miles. I believe they can take out our naval base in Bahrain; home base of the Fifth Fleet.

[Smurf-Herder]

I find it troubling that we take this all so casually.

We act as if the US government is not our own.

The American people will inevitably pay for what current political leadership does.

I wouldn't be too cavalier about it.

Maybe the plan is to get the US entangled in a hot war with Iran, making extraction from the region even more complicated.

If our nation unilaterally attacks Iran they will be demonstrably clinically insane. & anyone putting a bullet through them will be doing a patriotic duty for this nation.

Did I understand you correctly here - advocating the assassination of US government officials?

[Linkster]

Ive deleted the post - and will not stand for any more illegal postings - the law (whether you like it or not) gives a 5 year sentence to anyone promoting that - we will not allow postings of that nature here

[disrupter]

so you are cowed by the 'law'?

When did the law become an imposition on the people rather than a creation of the people?

Isn't NOT yelling 'fire' in a crowded theater when you smell smoke or spot flames equally a crime?

America of the people,
by the people,
for the people is dead.

it has perished from the earth.

Perhaps you fear the spasms of the corpse?

You might keep in mind it was 'illegal' for the revolutionary army to fight the english empire too.

Would it not be better to take an honorable stance against tyranny than to become complicit through silence & submission?

i guess it is 'your' forum, or the community's forum & perhaps arguably i should not drag it into trouble.

But i iterate, 'death to america' so that a far better 'america' will arise from the ashes like the phoenix from its pyre.

You can burn with the old america if you choose, but i would encourage you to think of the new america that stands tall in an alien & unknown universe.

[Linkster]

disrupter - Im not cowed by anything - it is illegal and punishable by 5 years in prison - and Im not going to prison for ya my friend
You can advocate revolution all you want - there are just some specific "phrases" you just might think about not posting here

[disrupter]

a apologize for unintentional problem(s) i might cause you or others.

I really think we need radical change.

Perhaps i am hypocritic & need to find the deep conviction of the words i utter.

Goodness knows there are people being killed/dying in Burma for freedoms we seem to have, . . . for the moment.

And the US is tied up in the Iraq fiasco & too embedded with Chevron & Uniocal to do anything to support a genuine grass roots impulse of democracy in Burma.

We try to shove something impossible down the throats of Iraqis, but can't even rise above our own commercial connections with China & corrupt corporations profiting in Burma.

Instead of supporting Burma we are readying a unilateral launch against a marginally democratic Iran?

To me that sounds shameless.

[Smurf-Herder]

disrupter - Im not cowed by anything - it is illegal and punishable by 5 years in prison - and Im not going to prison for ya my friend
You can advocate revolution all you want - there are just some specific "phrases" you just might think about not posting here

Actually, I think in the past the way it works is, you get asked for any info needed to identify disrupter's real identity, then he gets a visit from the FBI.

[disrupter]

cat herder sounds like he has experience in this.
Actually it might be the secret service instead.

If i didn't already own their souls that might actually work.
got them by the short hairs. ;)

you might get one of those national security letters [although i doubt it seriously],
where the government forces you to give information & simultaneously requires that you tell no one.

The american secret police in action.

if they can simply intimidate people, then they don't have to expose their wicked underbellies.

[Smurf-Herder]

cat herder sounds like he has experience in this.
Actually it might be the secret service instead.

If i didn't already own their souls that might actually work.
got them by the short hairs. ;)

you might get one of those national security letters [although i doubt it seriously],
where the government forces you to give information & simultaneously requires that you tell no one.

The american secret police in action.

if they can simply intimidate people, then they don't have to expose their wicked underbellies.

The Secret Service only involves the president, specifically.

And you own their souls, do ya?

You some kind of satanic overlord or something?

You actually do sound like someone who could be dangerous.

[Linkster]

Ill post the British view of what happened recently so I dont run into a barrage of leftie-rightie media BS - plus its funnier:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/10/16/teen_myspace_protest/