Yeggo
09-16-2010, 07:07 PM
Crossposted from http://bit.ly/cqLgzc
Just a quickie, since Charlie Cook made quite a splash today by changing the rating on Connecticut’s Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Tossup.” This is apparently on the strength of recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polling that showed Linda McMahon pulling within single digits of Democrat Richard Blumenthal.
E and I were just discussing polling, and the reaction the punditry has to polls, so this seems like a good chance to clear some things up.
Is the race narrowing? Yes. Has McMahon pulled to within striking distance? Yes. Is this race a tossup? No. At least, not yet.
The aggregate shows Bluementhal still enjoying a 7 point lead (this factors out a “pushback” Blumenthal internal that shows the Democrat up 54%-39%.) There are a couple of things that lead me to keep this “Lean Democrat” for now:
First, Blumenthal is over the 50% mark in the aggregate of these polls. His personal favorability ratings are still strong, and the fact is that Linda McMahon is a conservative with a significant amount of baggage running in a pretty damn Democratic state.
Even taking the results of Quinnipiac and Rasmussen in a vacuum, a 6-9 point lead is nothing to sneeze at. If it were 3 or 4, I’d consider changing the classification of this race. But as it stands, it’s still a “Lean Democrat.”
Just a quickie, since Charlie Cook made quite a splash today by changing the rating on Connecticut’s Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Tossup.” This is apparently on the strength of recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polling that showed Linda McMahon pulling within single digits of Democrat Richard Blumenthal.
E and I were just discussing polling, and the reaction the punditry has to polls, so this seems like a good chance to clear some things up.
Is the race narrowing? Yes. Has McMahon pulled to within striking distance? Yes. Is this race a tossup? No. At least, not yet.
The aggregate shows Bluementhal still enjoying a 7 point lead (this factors out a “pushback” Blumenthal internal that shows the Democrat up 54%-39%.) There are a couple of things that lead me to keep this “Lean Democrat” for now:
First, Blumenthal is over the 50% mark in the aggregate of these polls. His personal favorability ratings are still strong, and the fact is that Linda McMahon is a conservative with a significant amount of baggage running in a pretty damn Democratic state.
Even taking the results of Quinnipiac and Rasmussen in a vacuum, a 6-9 point lead is nothing to sneeze at. If it were 3 or 4, I’d consider changing the classification of this race. But as it stands, it’s still a “Lean Democrat.”