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View Full Version : NINJA Loans "No Income, No Job, No Assets" - great article on the credit crisis


Bill
08-10-2007, 10:47 PM
Well written, easy to read, as easy to understand as an article about the banking masters can be...

"It began years ago when Lewis Ranieri, an investment banker at the old Salomon Brothers, dreamed up the idea of buying mortgages from bank lenders, bundling them and issuing bonds with the bundles as collateral. The monthly payments from homeowners were used to pay interest on the bonds, and principal was repaid once all the mortgages had been paid down or refinanced.

Thanks to Ranieri and his successors, almost anyone can originate a mortgage loan -- not just banks and big mortgage lenders, but any mortgage broker with a Web site and a phone. Some banks still keep the mortgages they write. But most other originators sell them to investment banks that package and "securitize" them. And because the originators make their money from fees and from selling the loans, they don't have much at risk if borrowers can't keep up with their payments.

And therein lies the problem: an incentive structure that encourages originators to write risky loans, collect the big fees and let someone else suffer the consequences."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/13/AR2007031301733_pf.html

"This "moral hazard," as economists call it, has been magnified by another innovation in the capital markets. Instead of packaging entire mortgages, Wall Street came up with the idea of dividing them into "tranches." The safest tranche, which offers investors a relatively low interest rate, will be the first to be paid off if too many borrowers default and their houses are sold at foreclosure auction. The owners of the riskiest tranche, in contrast, will be the last to be paid, and thus have the biggest risk if too many houses are auctioned for less than the value of their loans. In return for this risk, their bonds offer the highest yield.

It was this ability to chop packages of mortgages into different risk tranches that really enabled the mortgage industry to rush headlong into all those new products and new markets -- in particular, the subprime market for borrowers with sketchy credit histories. Selling the safe tranches was easy, while the riskiest tranches appealed to the booming hedge-fund industry and other investors like pension funds desperate for anything offering a higher yield. So eager were global investors for these securities that when the housing market began to slow, they practically invited the mortgage bankers to keep generating new loans even if it meant they were riskier. The mortgage bankers were only too happy to oblige."

disrupter
08-13-2007, 12:35 PM
All true.

Borrowers had/have to now be their own best estimator of their capacity to repay a loan, a job that was traditionally done by scrutinizing careful bankers.

It is hard to protect naive borrowers from themselves, especially first timers.

Bankers used to be careful with money when it was their own,
but now it is other people's money,
Just like the Whitehouse, Congress & the Pentagon, squandering other people's money, nation & lives.

Complete unaccountability.

Want some accountability?
Get a gun & demand it.

moonman
08-16-2007, 07:35 AM
That is a great article but it the rest of the story is here

http://www.dcjunkies.com/showthread.php?t=1269

Bill
08-16-2007, 05:52 PM
Here's another very good article on the current instability.

This one starts by analysing the real story behind the headlines about Countrywide Mortgages (which doesn't carry a lot of sub-prime debt, so this story is about more prime mortgages and commercial mortgages) having to borrow 11.8 billion to stay solvent today.

"As Christopher Wolfe, managing director at Fitch Ratings told Bloomberg, "When a company draws on its bank lines, it just basically gives off the impression that it has run out of options."

"Typically these bank lines are there but not really meant to be used.''
So Fitch Ratings dropped Countrywide to BBB+, its third-lowest investment- grade rating.

Moody's Investors Service followed suit and downgraded the senior debt ratings of Countrywide to Baa3, from A3, and the deposits of Countrywide Bank FSB to Baa1, from A2.

Remember, this is Countrywide.

This is the guy that usually sits in the clubhouse reserved boxes.

According to Friedman, Billings Ramsey, Countrywide currently has exposure to $7.6 billion in Asset-Backed Commercial Paper and $5.8 billion unsecured commercial paper.

The company is not a huge subprime player; they currently carry $442 million of subprime.

Yesterday, Merrill Lynch (MER) raised the possibility that Countrywide could conceivably be forced into bankruptcy if these credit crunch conditions linger.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734

The whole page is good reading - I liked the bit about the interview with the creator of the documentary "Maxed Out" in the Washington Post.

Q: So, are you a genius, or what?
It's funny, it really wasn't that difficult to understand. In some ways, it's just mathematics. Yet there are regulators and analysts and investment bankers who do this day in and day out for years and years, who were saying the opposite of what I was saying. But for someone like me to come in and spend six months snooping around this industry and come to a pretty clear conclusion about where it was headed, it just tells you it wasn't all that difficult.

Q: How do you think the crisis is being handled in Washington?
I think it's been exacerbated by people like [Federal Reserve Chairman] Ben Bernanke and [Treasury Secretary] Henry Paulson and others coming out and saying, "Oh, subprime isn't contagious"... as if subprime borrowers were like lepers confined to some colony on an island and couldn't swim over and infect the rest of us... Now that it has spread, the party line is "The economy's strong and we'll power through this." But the only way you power through a crisis in our economy is by making sure people keep spending.