Obama condems Irans secret nuclear facility

[Smurf-Herder]

I'm curious to see how you guys split on this - who defends Obama and who defenda Iran :lmao2:

Obama: Iran's secret nuke facility 'inconsistent with a peaceful program'

President Obama opened G-20 summit day with a bang this morning, condemning Iran for hiding the existence of a secret nuclear facility and demanding that it be opened to international inspections.

"The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful (nuclear) program," Obama said, and further raises concerns that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon.

"Iran is breaking rules that all nations must follow, endangering the global nonproliferation regime," Obama said. "denying its own people access to the opportunity they deserve, and threatening the stability and security of the region and the world."

Obama made the announcement along with Great Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. All three of their countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, which may consider stronger sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

The prospect of stronger sanctions may depend on the Security Council's other two permanent members, Russia and China.

Brown said news of Iran's covert nuclear facility should "shock and anger" the world. He added that, "confronted by the serial deception of many years, the international community has no choice today but to draw a line in the sand."

The Associated Press reported that, shortly before Obama spoke, Iran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency about the facility's existence.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2009/09/68499808/1

[Life_Long_Dem!]

I'm curious to see how you guys split on this - who defends Obama and who defenda Iran :lmao2:

Obama: Iran's secret nuke facility 'inconsistent with a peaceful program'

President Obama opened G-20 summit day with a bang this morning, condemning Iran for hiding the existence of a secret nuclear facility and demanding that it be opened to international inspections.

"The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful (nuclear) program," Obama said, and further raises concerns that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon.

"Iran is breaking rules that all nations must follow, endangering the global nonproliferation regime," Obama said. "denying its own people access to the opportunity they deserve, and threatening the stability and security of the region and the world."

Obama made the announcement along with Great Britain Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. All three of their countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, which may consider stronger sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

The prospect of stronger sanctions may depend on the Security Council's other two permanent members, Russia and China.

Brown said news of Iran's covert nuclear facility should "shock and anger" the world. He added that, "confronted by the serial deception of many years, the international community has no choice today but to draw a line in the sand."

The Associated Press reported that, shortly before Obama spoke, Iran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency about the facility's existence.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2009/09/68499808/1
I fully support Obama on this issue.

[CosmicRocker]

Sarkozy, the Brit guy, and Obama all deliver the news - all said was a gross violation of IAEA protocol.

Russia denounced the secret facility - but prolly won't enforce sanctions, even if they give it lip service.

China was ...well China they won't condem anything, so they don't get condemeded -although they said something mealy mouthed "like support the IAEA"

we're getting to a serious situation.
Netanyahu (sp?) is serious, that he's not gonna allow Iran to get a nuke.
Can he take out the facilities by air? -doubtful as some are underground, and widely scattered.
Doesn't mean he wouldn't try though.

Severe Sanctions are clearly coming up, Iran clearly is on the path to getting nuke weapons, and the shit is gonna hit the fan.
Unless Iran changes their goals -don't see that happening.

[Smurf-Herder]

Sarkozy, the Brit guy, and Obama all deliver the news - all said was a gross violation of IAEA protocol.

Russia denounced the secret facility - but prolly won't enforce sanctions, even if they give it lip service.

China was ...well China they won't condem anything, so they don't get condemeded -although they said something mealy mouthed "like support the IAEA"

we're getting to a serious situation.
Netanyahu (sp?) is serious, that he's not gonna allow Iran to get a nuke.
Can he take out the facilities by air? -doubtful as some are underground, and widely scattered.
Doesn't mean he wouldn't try though.

Severe Sanctions are clearly coming up, Iran clearly is on the path to getting nuke weapons, and the shit is gonna hit the fan.
Unless Iran changes their goals -don't see that happening.

The Israelis have a broad plan, involving airborne special forces assault teams, going after multiple underground facilities run by the IRGC; as well as taking out Iran's long-range retalitatory capabilities.

If Israel goes in, it'll be a full-blown regional war. That's why the UN has to do more than just talk and extend deadlines.

US ships arrive in Israel ahead of joint drill

US Navy missile ships started arriving in Israel on Sunday ahead of next month's joint missile defense exercise between the IDF and the American military's European Command.

Called Juniper Cobra, the exercise will include the Arrow missile defense system as well as three American systems - the THAAD, Aegis and PAC3 - that will all be deployed in Israel for the duration of the exercise.

Defense officials said the exercise would not begin for a few weeks, but that the ships were already arriving to begin preparing the infrastructure for the joint drill, the largest since Israel and the US began holding the biennial Juniper Cobra drill in 2001.

The arrival of the ships began a day before Defense Minister Ehud Barak was scheduled to fly to Washington for talks with his American counterpart, Robert Gates. Defense officials said that their talks would focus on the Iranian threat, Israeli-US defense cooperation as well as the role Israel will play in the new American missile defense shield announced last week.

Expectations in Israel are that the US will deploy several Aegis ballistic missile ships - that are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles - in the Mediterranean and Red seas. Israel is already home to the advanced X-Band radar that the Bush administration gave as a farewell gift last October.

Officials said it was possible that the US would decide to leave some systems in Israel following the drill to bolster Israeli defenses in face of the Iranian threat. One possibility under discussion is that Aegis ships, that carry SM3 missile interceptors, will be deployed in the Mediterranean and Red seas.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1253198161404&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Smurf-Herder]

It's hard to find the old stories anymore in Google, after this new story came out taking all the search results. But this story back in 2005 shows there could be lots of secret underground facilities we don't know about.

Iran Is Building Nukes in Underground Locations
Nov. 21, 2005

Iran has built, with the help of North Korea, dozens of underground tunnels and facilities for the construction of nuclear-capable missiles, according to Alireza Jafardazeh, a Washington D.C.-based consultant and former spokesman for the National Council of the Resistance of Iran, an Iranian opposition group.

Speaking this morning at the National Press Club, Jafarzadeh described an "extensive large-scale operation" for the development of nuclear-capable missiles "in the most sophisticated, hidden way" in tunnels in a mountain range east of Tehran. Jafarzadeh named several Iranian entities involved in Iran's missile program, overseen by the Hemmat Industries Group. He said that eyewitnesses describe the facilities, begun in 1989, as an "underground township." Jafarzadeh added that, in addition to work on the Shahab family of missiles, Hemmat is overseeing work on a new long-range missile, Ghadar, which is still in development and has a projected range of 1,300 to 1,900 miles.

Reports of North Korean cooperation with Iran on its nuclear and missile programs have surfaced previously. In July 2005, Reuters cited a three-page intelligence report charging that North Koreans were teaching secret graduate-level courses at Tehran's Polytechnic University in nuclear technology. The UK's Telegraph reported in June 2005 that North Korean specialists in underground construction had arrived in Tehran to help design their facilities that would better shield Iran's nuclear program from international scrutiny.

Jafarzadeh's allegations come on the heels of the latest report on Iran from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which reveals that Iran received a document from the A.Q. Khan network in 1987 describing the "casting and machining" uranium into "hemispherical forms," a process directly relevant to the design of a nuclear warhead.

A State Department official contacted by ABC News about Jafarzadeh's charges was unable to corroborate them but did confirm that the Hemmat Industries Group was sanctioned in May 2003 as the unlawful recipient of missile technology from Moldova. The Shahab-3 was flight-tested by Iran in 2004. It is known to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and has a range of 1,500 kilometers. Experts do not know how many such missiles Iran has produced or deployed.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=1334218

[Smurf-Herder]

The real question now is, and has always been, will Iran come clean on all their undeclared sites and activities?

September 27, 2009
U.S. to Demand Inspection of New Iran Plant ‘Within Weeks’
By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to tell Iran this week that it must open a newly revealed nuclear enrichment site to international inspectors “within weeks,” according to senior administration officials. The administration will also seek full access to the key personnel who put together the clandestine plant.

The demands, following the revelation Friday of the secret facility at a military base near the holy city of Qum, set the stage for the next chapter of a diplomatic drama that has toughened the West’s posture and heightened tensions with Iran. The first direct negotiations between the United States and Iran in 30 years are scheduled to open in Geneva on Thursday.

American and European officials say they will also press Iran to open suspected nuclear sites to inspectors, and to turn over notebooks and computers involved in suspected weapons design.

President Obama has repeatedly said Iran must show significant cooperation by the end of the year, establishing what officials say is effectively a three-month deadline for action.

Interviews with American and European officials, however, suggest differences of opinion about how much time Iran should be given to show full compliance, and how they will measure Tehran’s cooperation.

On Saturday, Iran’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, said the International Atomic Energy Agency would be invited to visit the site near Qum that American intelligence agencies estimate was designed to house 3,000 centrifuges, enough to produce about one bomb’s worth of material a year. But he did not say when.

Iranian officials have said the site is for peaceful purposes. They have not explained why it was located inside a heavily guarded base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

From the White House to Europe, senior officials were pushing to exploit the disclosure of the covert facility as a turning point.

“This is the most important development in the three and a half years since the U.S. has offered negotiations with Iran,” said R. Nicholas Burns, a Harvard professor who served as the Bush administration’s chief strategist on Iran. Mr. Burns said Mr. Obama “now has much greater leverage to organize an international coalition to confront” the country’s leaders with sanctions should the negotiating effort fail.

For now, the most urgent issue, current and former officials agree, is gaining immediate access to the hidden tunnel complex that Iran now acknowledges is a uranium enrichment plant still under construction.

“This reopens the whole question of the military’s involvement in the Iranian nuclear program,” said David A. Kay, a nuclear specialist who led the fruitless American search for unconventional weapons in Iraq. “ The clandestine plant, he added, also raises questions of whether Iran was preparing to sprint for an atom bomb.

It is still unclear what kind of incentives the United States and its allies may offer Iran if it completely opened, and ultimately dismantled, its nuclear program. On Saturday, Mr. Obama, in his weekly radio address, said he remained committed to building a relationship with Tehran.

“My offer of a serious, meaningful dialogue to resolve this issue remains open,” he said. “But Iran must now cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and take action to demonstrate its peaceful intentions.”

Now that the clandestine site has been revealed, however, American and European officials say they see an opportunity to press for broader disclosures. Iran will be told that to avoid sanctions, it must adhere to an I.A.E.A. agreement called the “additional protocol” that would allow inspectors to go virtually anywhere in the country to track down suspicions of nuclear work.

Iran will also have to turn over documents that the agency has sought for more than three years, including some that appear to suggest work was done on the design of warheads and technologies for detonating a nuclear core.

The negotiators would also insist, officials say, that Iran abide by I.A.E.A. rules, which Iran agreed to and then renounced, requiring it to announce in advance any plans to build nuclear facilities. Iran says it will only adhere to an older rule, requiring notification only when the plant is about to become operational.

For several years, the Iran has deflected I.A.E.A requests to interview key scientists, presumably including those who ran the highly secret Projects 110 and 111. American intelligence officials, after piercing Iran’s computer networks in 2007, say they believe that those projects are at the center of nuclear design work. Iran has denied that the projects exist and has denounced as fabrications the documents the United States has shared with the agency, and with other nations, that were taken from a scientist’s laptop that was smuggled out of the country.

There are other elements of the Iranian program that may also draw greater scrutiny, though it is unclear whether they are part of the new Western demands. A controversial United States intelligence report in 2007 that said Iran seemed to have halted final work on a bomb also asserted that there were more than a dozen suspect sites about which officials knew little.

Administration officials acknowledge that it is unlikely that Iran will accede to all of those demands. But they say this is their best chance to move the seven-year-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear program sharply in their favor.

In interviews and public comments, the administration’s tone has clearly changed in recent days, becoming tougher and more confrontational.

In an interview to be broadcast Sunday on ABC, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said the hidden facility was “part of a pattern of deception and lies on the part of the Iranians from the very beginning with respect to their nuclear program.”

But he deflected a question that has been circulating inside the government: Is the Qum facility one of a kind, or just one of several hidden facilities that were intended to give Iran a covert means of enriching uranium, far from the inspectors who regularly visit a far larger enrichment facility, also once kept secret, at Natanz.

“My personal opinion is that the Iranians have the intention of having nuclear weapons,” Mr. Gates concluded, though he said it was still an open question “whether they have made a formal decision” to manufacture weapons.

In recent years, Tehran has slowly and systematically cut back on the access of atomic sleuths. Early in 2006, for instance, it unilaterally began redirecting the international inspectors from dozens of sites, programs and personnel all over the Islamic republic to a single point: Natanz, where Iran is enriching uranium.

Pierre Goldschmidt, a former I.A.E.A. official who is now a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the revelation of the secret enrichment plant drove home the urgent need for enhanced legal authority for tough inspections. “It’s proof that, without additional verification authority, the agency cannot find undeclared nuclear activities,” he said. “”

Beneath the dry language of reports issued every three months by the international agency lies the story of an intense cat-and-mouse game in which inspectors seek documents or interviews with key scientists like Mohsen Fakrizadeh.

He sits atop a maze of laboratories believed to have once been used — the Israelis and some Europeans say they still are — for the design of nuclear arms. So the I.A.E.A.’s agenda of inspection is already huge, as is its record of failing to get the Iranians to address the most serious clues and charges, inconsistencies and suspicions.

The departing chief of the agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, recently argued that the case for urgent action against Iran was “hyped,” even as he acknowledged that the country has refused, for two years, to answer his inspectors’ questions about evidence suggesting that the country has worked on weapons design.

In May 2008, the atomic agency in Vienna issued an uncharacteristically blunt demand for more information from Tehran and, even more uncharacteristically, disclosed the existence of 18 secretly obtained documents suggesting Iran’s high interest in atom bombs.

The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran included a classified chapter on covert sites, and evidence of the existence of blueprints and designs that could turn nuclear fuel into deadly warheads.

But the wording of the public portion of the intelligence estimate actually froze the effort to force Iran to reveal more. Its conclusion that some of the weapons design work halted in 2003, perhaps because the Iranians feared the kind of disclosure they suffered last week, was a surprise that ended talk of sanctions.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called the report an exoneration.

In fact, the N.I.E. listed more than a dozen suspect locations, though officials would not say whether they included the one that was revealed Friday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/world/middleeast/27nuke.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print

[CosmicRocker]

^great reporting Smurf !! :thumbsup:

we'll see what happens, there are storm clouds growing ominosly though.

[MarkMiller]

I just have one nagging question. Maybe you know the answer smurf, or if anyone can direct me, that would be appreciated as well.

The situation is being made into an "Accusation" by Iran's President to play to the Muslim World in General as well as it's fringe, stir up animosity towards Israel and attempt to portray himself as the softer leader. (I love the female voice used to interpret the asshole. You just know that supposed to soften him to the English Speaking world....that may work on the Brits but...)

This cannot become a He said-She said (androgyny is so complicated) situation.

Has Obama come out yet and explained why *Akma* is saying they informed the correct agency 6 months before required and how it is false or misleading or incorrect and been decisive about exactly what has transpired? This must not be a confusing mess to the world.

[Bill Cosby]

So Israel is gonna start a war to revent a war.........lol

Where have I heard that one before..... LMAO.....

Why not take out wackistan to.... They are a Muslim terrorist state w/ the bomb... They can be turned west as easily as they are turned east...........

Some of ya'll are all happy about them getting bombed???

That is gonna prevent more problems than it will cause????

[CosmicRocker]

So Israel is gonna start a war to revent a war.........lol

Where have I heard that one before..... LMAO.....

Why not take out wackistan to.... They are a Muslim terrorist state w/ the bomb... They can be turned west as easily as they are turned east...........

Some of ya'll are all happy about them getting bombed???

That is gonna prevent more problems than it will cause????
glad you find some kinna humor here, i sure as hell don't.
Iran having nukes.
EVERYTHING they've done, hiding their facilities, not letting the IAEA protols, DAILY THREATENING to wipe Israel off the map.

Are you quite confident it's all just blather??

Or do we have a fascist regime willing to kill it's own ppl ( as they've already done), and willing to start a nuclear war?

If I was Israel, with no way to stop an attack and they were pointed at me, I'd be damned sure thinking about taking them out.
especially considering all the wars alreay started against Israel.

The Iranian regime can't be trusted;they are not rational.

we'll try sanctions -see if they bite. If not...the dynamics are a powderkeg.
AJ's response yesterday looks like he doesnt care.
That's a bad combination . bellicose, threating, and not caring.

[Bill Cosby]

glad you find some kinna humor here, i sure as hell don't.
Iran having nukes.
EVERYTHING they've done, hiding their facilities, not letting the IAEA protols, DAILY THREATENING to wipe Israel off the map.

Are you quite confident it's all just blather??

Or do we have a fascist regime willing to kill it's own ppl ( as they've already done), and willing to start a nuclear war?

If I was Israel, with no way to stop an attack and they were pointed at me, I'd be damned sure thinking about taking them out.
especially considering all the wars alreay started against Israel.

The Iranian regime can't be trusted;they are not rational.

we'll try sanctions -see if they bite. If not...the dynamics are a powderkeg.
AJ's response yesterday looks like he doesnt care.
That's a bad combination . bellicose, threating, and not caring.


Well maybe I do see it kinda humors in a defeatist, apathetic kinda way... Unlike most of you here I see/seen this for a long time... IMO it was inevitable... As I stated previously in the other thread- there is an arms race going on... This is what happens when you have an arms race..

Israel produced a nuke arsenal & they didn't do a damn thing about it. Wackistan & India got a slap on the wrist & the wacki dictators got lots of American tax dollars--- & they still are....

They are not threatening to do a damn thing about the dear leader........ (there is a lesson to be learned there....:thumbsup: .)

I don't like the leadership there... I do not believe they would nuke Palestine... Just not in the cards... Israel has lots of Arabs living there..... Nuclear explosions & fallout does not distinguish.... You gonna bomb the dome of the rock?? NO!!! not happening...

As I stated before as well......... I will agree to these rules on Iran if they are applied to all........ Including Israel......... If you/they are not interested in applying them to all, then sorry I am not interested in getting all excited about going to war to prevent war…

[foxbaron]

Instead of bombing the holy crap out of Iran, which may well be imminent, perhaps we should consider removing the prohibition of assassinating other foreign leaders. WE know that will never happen.................................so
BOMB. BOMB, BOMB, BOMB IRAN..........................everybody sing along now.

[MarkMiller]

Instead of bombing the holy crap out of Iran, which may well be imminent, perhaps we should consider removing the prohibition of assassinating other foreign leaders. WE know that will never happen.................................so
BOMB. BOMB, BOMB, BOMB IRAN..........................everybody sing along now.
Give me a fucking break.

I went to the Vince Vance and The Valiants Concert and saw them sing that live. They're better than McCain.

Anarchy Now. Everybody start shooting!

Any direction!

[Bill Cosby]

Give me a fucking break.

I went to the Vince Vance and The Valiants Concert and saw them sing that live. They're better than McCain.

Anarchy Now. Everybody start shooting!

Any direction!

Yep.............. Like blind man w/ a gun...

[Smurf-Herder]

Has Obama come out yet and explained why *Akma* is saying they informed the correct agency 6 months before required and how it is false or misleading or incorrect and been decisive about exactly what has transpired? This must not be a confusing mess to the world.

Because they caught on that we knew. They were being monitored by U2 spy planes. They felt they had an argument of credibility to those who support them, by coming out first.

But I don't buy the argument that this is a new facility - maybe just a new section of an existing network. I posted a story from 2005 in this thread that talked of these underground facilities being started back in 1989.

[Seraphim]

glad you find some kinna humor here, i sure as hell don't.
Iran having nukes.
EVERYTHING they've done, hiding their facilities, not letting the IAEA protols, DAILY THREATENING to wipe Israel off the map.

Are you quite confident it's all just blather??

Or do we have a fascist regime willing to kill it's own ppl ( as they've already done), and willing to start a nuclear war?

If I was Israel, with no way to stop an attack and they were pointed at me, I'd be damned sure thinking about taking them out.
especially considering all the wars alreay started against Israel.

The Iranian regime can't be trusted;they are not rational.

we'll try sanctions -see if they bite. If not...the dynamics are a powderkeg.
AJ's response yesterday looks like he doesnt care.
That's a bad combination . bellicose, threating, and not caring.

I concur. Powderkeg is a good description.

[CosmicRocker]

Well maybe I do see it kinda humors in a defeatist, apathetic kinda way... Unlike most of you here I see/seen this for a long time... IMO it was inevitable... As I stated previously in the other thread- there is an arms race going on... This is what happens when you have an arms race..

Israel produced a nuke arsenal & they didn't do a damn thing about it. Wackistan & India got a slap on the wrist & the wacki dictators got lots of American tax dollars--- & they still are....

They are not threatening to do a damn thing about the dear leader........ (there is a lesson to be learned there....:thumbsup: .)

I don't like the leadership there... I do not believe they would nuke Palestine... Just not in the cards... Israel has lots of Arabs living there..... Nuclear explosions & fallout does not distinguish.... You gonna bomb the dome of the rock?? NO!!! not happening...

As I stated before as well......... I will agree to these rules on Iran if they are applied to all........ Including Israel......... If you/they are not interested in applying them to all, then sorry I am not interested in getting all excited about going to war to prevent war…
Forget the "rules" that somehow Iran is entitles to nukes.
They have already shown they don't care about rules/protocols.
They are belligerent.

I'm not too worried about Israel using a first strike.
The possibility that Iran does so, is more than worrisome.

[Smurf-Herder]

Forget the "rules" that somehow Iran is entitles to nukes.
They have already shown they don't care about rules/protocols.
They are belligerent.

I'm not too worried about Israel using a first strike.
The possibility that Iran does so, is more than worrisome.

My concern is, with Iran being said over the past few years of dispersing elements of the program across the country in underground facilities, that Iran's gameplan is to use the Israeli attack as the trigger for their attack.

They know Israel will eventually attack them, if they keep going. So why not just use that to their political advantage - pulling the Russians and China into direct confrontation with the US and NATO. As well as pulling Hezbollah and Syria in, for a multi-front war against Israel.

Iran Establishes Missile Defense Shield in Syria
June 25, 2007

Iran is deploying missiles in Syria in preparation for military action if it is attacked over its nuclear program, U.N. officials in the region said.

Under a mutual defense pact signed between Damascus and Tehran in 2005, Syria agreed to the deployment of sophisticated weaponry on its territory.

The Iranians have now decided to implement the agreement following a meeting last month of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which is chaired by a former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran is preparing to transfer dozens of medium-range Shahab-3 and Russian-made Scud-C missiles, together with Scud-B missiles. Most of the missiles can be fired from mobile launchers and are capable of hitting targets right across Israel.

"Iran is preparing itself for the possibility of military action over its nuclear program," a senior U.N. official in Lebanon said.

"If Iran is attacked then this will give it a number of retaliation options."

U.N. officials said work on the new missile storage facilities will begin next month and will take about a year to complete.

Besides shipping the weapons, Iran has also sent missile engineers to help to train the Syrian military and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite Muslim group with which Israel fought last year's war.

In addition, Iran is reported to have made similar arrangements with the Sudanese government to enable it to attack pro-Western Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia.

Tehran's decision to deploy missiles abroad is taken at a time when it finds itself under mounting international pressure over its nuclear program.

Last week, it announced that it had processed 100 kilograms of uranium to a level that would enable it to move quickly toward producing weapons-grade material.

In a separate development, Russia was reported last week to be about to sell advanced fighter jets to Syria in a move that is already causing disquiet in Israel.

http://www.nysun.com/foreign/iran-establishes-missile-defense-shield-in-syria/57236/

[Bill Cosby]

Forget the "rules" that somehow Iran is entitles to nukes.
They have already shown they don't care about rules/protocols.
They are belligerent.

I'm not too worried about Israel using a first strike.
The possibility that Iran does so, is more than worrisome.

I already said... They nor anyone is entitled to them...

I believe my opinion here is pretty consistent…

Unlike yours……….

You talk about them being belligerent & not following the rules…lol

If you like you can lay out some rules so we can apply that to everyone & we can see who is following the rules…

[CosmicRocker]

I already said... They nor anyone is entitled to them...

I believe my opinion here is pretty consistent…

Unlike yours……….

You talk about them being belligerent & not following the rules…lol

If you like you can lay out some rules so we can apply that to everyone & we can see who is following the rules…
Your opinion IS honest and consistent, but it's also idealistic.

I wish we had no nukes. I also wish there was a tooth fairy.
Realpolitiks dicttate that the instability, hegemonious desires, and
plain craziness of the Iranian regime worries the shit out of me.

Much more than Israel, Paki, or India.

Dear Leader is the next problem, but they don't have the ballistics Iran already has.

They are just about ready to build, and have the ballistics.

WARNING ! WARNING ! DANGER! DANGER!! ( al la Lost in Space )

[CosmicRocker]

My concern is, with Iran being said over the past few years of dispersing elements of the program across the country in underground facilities, that Iran's gameplan is to use the Israeli attack as the trigger for their attack.

They know Israel will eventually attack them, if they keep going. So why not just use that to their political advantage - pulling the Russians and China into direct confrontation with the US and NATO. As well as pulling Hezbollah and Syria in, for a multi-front war against Israel.

Iran Establishes Missile Defense Shield in Syria
June 25, 2007

Iran is deploying missiles in Syria in preparation for military action if it is attacked over its nuclear program, U.N. officials in the region said.

Under a mutual defense pact signed between Damascus and Tehran in 2005, Syria agreed to the deployment of sophisticated weaponry on its territory.

The Iranians have now decided to implement the agreement following a meeting last month of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which is chaired by a former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran is preparing to transfer dozens of medium-range Shahab-3 and Russian-made Scud-C missiles, together with Scud-B missiles. Most of the missiles can be fired from mobile launchers and are capable of hitting targets right across Israel.

"Iran is preparing itself for the possibility of military action over its nuclear program," a senior U.N. official in Lebanon said.

"If Iran is attacked then this will give it a number of retaliation options."

U.N. officials said work on the new missile storage facilities will begin next month and will take about a year to complete.

Besides shipping the weapons, Iran has also sent missile engineers to help to train the Syrian military and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite Muslim group with which Israel fought last year's war.

In addition, Iran is reported to have made similar arrangements with the Sudanese government to enable it to attack pro-Western Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia.

Tehran's decision to deploy missiles abroad is taken at a time when it finds itself under mounting international pressure over its nuclear program.

Last week, it announced that it had processed 100 kilograms of uranium to a level that would enable it to move quickly toward producing weapons-grade material.

In a separate development, Russia was reported last week to be about to sell advanced fighter jets to Syria in a move that is already causing disquiet in Israel.

http://www.nysun.com/foreign/iran-establishes-missile-defense-shield-in-syria/57236/
can you say "global thermonuclear war"

I hear ya. Smurf. The more you post the more my hairs stand on end :scared1:

[Smurf-Herder]

can you say "global thermonuclear war"

I hear ya. Smurf. The more you post the more my hairs stand on end :scared1:

Any attack involving Iran and Israel, regardless of who fires first, has the potential for an apocalyptic confrontation.

[nobull]

I just have one nagging question. Maybe you know the answer smurf, or if anyone can direct me, that would be appreciated as well.

The situation is being made into an "Accusation" by Iran's President to play to the Muslim World in General as well as it's fringe, stir up animosity towards Israel and attempt to portray himself as the softer leader. (I love the female voice used to interpret the asshole. You just know that supposed to soften him to the English Speaking world....that may work on the Brits but...)

This cannot become a He said-She said (androgyny is so complicated) situation.

Has Obama come out yet and explained why *Akma* is saying they informed the correct agency 6 months before required and how it is false or misleading or incorrect and been decisive about exactly what has transpired? This must not be a confusing mess to the world.

Why should Obama explain that? Achmedinejad was obviously surprised that we knew about it (the CBS interview, I think). It actually sounds to me like the mullahs aren't telling him everything. That's a good thing. Achmed doesn't have any real power anyway. He's just a big mouth.

[Smurf-Herder]

Why should Obama explain that? Achmedinejad was obviously surprised that we knew about it (the CBS interview, I think). It actually sounds to me like the mullahs aren't telling him everything. That's a good thing. Achmed doesn't have any real power anyway. He's just a big mouth.

You must have missed the election coup. The Supreme leader stands behind him and so do the IRGC which he put in positions of power since he became president.

[nobull]

glad you find some kinna humor here, i sure as hell don't.
Iran having nukes.
EVERYTHING they've done, hiding their facilities, not letting the IAEA protols, DAILY THREATENING to wipe Israel off the map.

Are you quite confident it's all just blather??

Or do we have a fascist regime willing to kill it's own ppl ( as they've already done), and willing to start a nuclear war?

If I was Israel, with no way to stop an attack and they were pointed at me, I'd be damned sure thinking about taking them out.
especially considering all the wars alreay started against Israel.

The Iranian regime can't be trusted;they are not rational.

we'll try sanctions -see if they bite. If not...the dynamics are a powderkeg.
AJ's response yesterday looks like he doesnt care.
That's a bad combination . bellicose, threating, and not caring.

I wish people would calm down already. First of all, Iran only has the capability to enrich uranium, which is a looooooooooooooong way toward bombhood. They also need to build warheads capable of launching them. In the meantime, there's lots of time, and lots of leverage among the peaceful world powers and the UN. Frankly, unless some maniac has a one-click capability to launch nuclear warheads (highly HIGHLY doubtful), it just ain't gonna happen. Iran isn't a banana republic with a bunch of yahoos running it. They won't launch because they know they would be finished by a retaliatory launch. So why would they do it?

Same thing with Israel launching a first strike. I mean how to ENSURE that your country will become scorched earth! It would hardly take a nuclear warhead to reduce Israel to rubble. It's only slightly larger than the State of New Jersey.

http://www.iris.org.il/sizemaps.htm

[Smurf-Herder]

I wish people would calm down already. First of all, Iran only has the capability to enrich uranium, which is a looooooooooooooong way toward bombhood. They also need to build warheads capable of launching them. In the meantime, there's lots of time, and lots of leverage among the peaceful world powers and the UN. Frankly, unless some maniac has a one-click capability to launch nuclear warheads (highly HIGHLY doubtful), it just ain't gonna happen. Iran isn't a banana republic with a bunch of yahoos running it. They won't launch because they know they would be finished by a retaliatory launch. So why would they do it?

Same thing with Israel launching a first strike. I mean how to ENSURE that your country will become scorched earth! It would hardly take a nuclear warhead to reduce Israel to rubble. It's only slightly larger than the State of New Jersey.

http://www.iris.org.il/sizemaps.htm

No, Iran has the most extreme death cult of the Shiite faction of Islam running it - the people who believe they can bring about the return of their Imam Mahdi - their apocalypse, converting the world to Islam.

And The IAEA says thay can make warheads.

IAEA secret report: Iran worked on nuclear warhead

The urgency of dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat was underscored today when a leaked report revealed that the UN inspection agency believes the Islamic republic has "sufficient information" to make a nuclear weapon and has "probably tested" a key component.

A day after Barack Obama scrapped plans to deploy missile defence technology in eastern Europe, the Associated Press said it had obtained material from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which suggests that it was more convinced Iran had been trying to make a bomb than its outgoing director, Mohamed ElBaradei, had admitted.

"The agency … assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based on HEU [highly enriched uranium] as the fission fuel," AP quoted a "secret annexe" to a report on Iran as saying. Western diplomats confirmed that the annexe was authentic.

"Its absolutely accurate," one official said. "It shows the agency's thinking, which is that Iran is a lot further along on this than most people think. It suggests the Iranians have done a lot of work."

The annexe said Iranian scientists had engaged in "probable testing" of explosives arranged in a hemisphere, which is how an implosion-type nuclear warhead is triggered.

There was also evidence, the report says, that Iran had worked on developing a chamber to carry a warhead on top of one of its missiles "that is quite likely to be nuclear".

Attention will now focus on the United Nations in New York next week, where Obama takes the rare step of chairing a security council session in order to generate momentum towards nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and consensus over Iran.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/18/iran-nuclear-warhead-iaea-report

You really gotta keep up with this.

[nobull]

Forget the "rules" that somehow Iran is entitles to nukes.
They have already shown they don't care about rules/protocols.
They are belligerent.

I'm not too worried about Israel using a first strike.
The possibility that Iran does so, is more than worrisome.

Who would give the order to strike Israel? Achmedinijad does not command the Iranian armed forces and he does not determine Iranian foreign policy.

And far from being a belligerent power seeking to expand its borders, the last time Iran attacked a neighbor was in the 17th century. Their offensive weapon of choice is OIL, my friends, and control over the Strait of Hormus which is the access point to deep waters from the Persian Gulf which all tankers from every country use. And since the US and other non-oil producing companies continue to be addicted to foreign oil, Iran will continue to rattle cages using their only DEFENSIVE weapon, which is the threat of a nuclear strike against Israel.

[nobull]

can you say "global thermonuclear war"

I hear ya. Smurf. The more you post the more my hairs stand on end :scared1:

I'm probably older than a lot of you, and you're experiencing what I did in the 1960's. It didn't happen then, either. Most countries have become quite adept at carrying out detente since then.

[Smurf-Herder]

Who would give the order to strike Israel? Achmedinijad does not command the Iranian armed forces and he does not determine Iranian foreign policy.

And far from being a belligerent power seeking to expand its borders, the last time Iran attacked a neighbor was in the 17th century.

Jesus fucking Christ, do I have to repeat everything I've posted for the past two years, again?

No Ahmadinejad doesn't control the armed forces - the Supreme leader who gave Ahmadinejad credibility after the stolen election does. Think.

Iran is behind Hezbollah, funding Hamas; and giving weapons and training to insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. They gain control through proxies, so far.

[nobull]

You must have missed the election coup. The Supreme leader stands behind him and so do the IRGC which he put in positions of power since he became president.

So they say. But that doesn't mean they've given him any more power than he already has. Which is zilch.

To NOT support him once they couldn't prove fraud would have meant political upheaval among the populace and Iran likes to paint itself as having peaceful, law-abiding, happy citizens.

[Smurf-Herder]

I'm probably older than a lot of you, and you're experiencing what I did in the 1960's. It didn't happen then, either. Most countries have become quite adept at carrying out detente since then.

Detente and Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't work with apocalyptic death cults.

[CosmicRocker]

Who would give the order to strike Israel? Achmedinijad does not command the Iranian armed forces and he does not determine Iranian foreign policy.

And far from being a belligerent power seeking to expand its borders, the last time Iran attacked a neighbor was in the 17th century. Their offensive weapon of choice is OIL, my friends, and control over the Strait of Hormus which is the access point to deep waters from the Persian Gulf which all tankers from every country use. And since the US and other non-oil producing companies continue to be addicted to foreign oil, Iran will continue to rattle cages using their only DEFENSIVE weapon, which is the threat of a nuclear strike against Israel.
Yes. I know the Supreme Leader i think is the title, and the Guardian Council re the powers.

They haven't attacked anyone directly, but they are the main funding of Hezbollah, and to a leser extent Hamas.
So they are working their way to hegemony, IMHO, the Shiite Crescent is still their main goal.

Israel NEVER threatened to " wipe Iran off the map" that kind of language is not particular to Achm. It's in general use

EXCERPT:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/127440
If Iranian officials are correct, then not only is Iran not importing missiles from Russia, but it is a leading weapons exporter. On Friday, Defense Minister Najjar reiterated a claim he has made in the past to the effect that Iran exports weapons systems to more than fifty nations worldwide. Najjar made the comments during a gathering for Muslim prayers in the city of Aroumia.

According to Najjar, Iran produces and exports world-class advanced systems for land, sea and air forces, as well as for use in outer space. Iran, he continued, is therefore well prepared to stave off and defeat any external threat with its domestically produced arsenal. Najjar added that his country has no intention of attacking any other state.

The information known to the public, Najjar boasted, represents only 80% of Iran's true capabilities
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
they are not shy about this

[Smurf-Herder]

So they say. But that doesn't mean they've given him any more power than he already has. Which is zilch.

To NOT support him once they couldn't prove fraud would have meant political upheaval among the populace and Iran likes to paint itself as having peaceful, law-abiding, happy citizens.

How do you know who is doing what? A lot of Clerics came out against the Supreme leader. And the IRGC support Ahmedinejad - he's one of their own. In fact, he was in charge of training the unarmed teenagers that walked into iraqi minefields and machineguns in human-wave attacks during the 1980s war with Iraq. He was also an officer in the Qods force - the people who work with Hezbollah.

[nobull]

No, Iran has the most extreme death cult of the Shiite faction of Islam running it - the people who believe they can bring about the return of their Imam Mahdi - their apocalypse, converting the world to Islam.

And The IAEA says thay can make warheads.

IAEA secret report: Iran worked on nuclear warhead

The urgency of dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat was underscored today when a leaked report revealed that the UN inspection agency believes the Islamic republic has "sufficient information" to make a nuclear weapon and has "probably tested" a key component.

A day after Barack Obama scrapped plans to deploy missile defence technology in eastern Europe, the Associated Press said it had obtained material from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which suggests that it was more convinced Iran had been trying to make a bomb than its outgoing director, Mohamed ElBaradei, had admitted.

"The agency … assesses that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device based on HEU [highly enriched uranium] as the fission fuel," AP quoted a "secret annexe" to a report on Iran as saying. Western diplomats confirmed that the annexe was authentic.

"Its absolutely accurate," one official said. "It shows the agency's thinking, which is that Iran is a lot further along on this than most people think. It suggests the Iranians have done a lot of work."

The annexe said Iranian scientists had engaged in "probable testing" of explosives arranged in a hemisphere, which is how an implosion-type nuclear warhead is triggered.

There was also evidence, the report says, that Iran had worked on developing a chamber to carry a warhead on top of one of its missiles "that is quite likely to be nuclear".

Attention will now focus on the United Nations in New York next week, where Obama takes the rare step of chairing a security council session in order to generate momentum towards nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and consensus over Iran.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/18/iran-nuclear-warhead-iaea-report

You really gotta keep up with this.

So now you're scared that an extremist group will launch a nuclear strike? Oh please, that's like saying Iraq's revolutionary guard had the capability of striking Cleveland, thus the US had to invade first. The Iranian people by and large are not ragtag terrorists like al-Qaeda, for one thing, who believe in all the jihadi bullshit about establishing an Islamic caliphate. (In fact, neither were Iraqis.)

[Smurf-Herder]

So now you're scared that an extremist group will launch a nuclear strike? Oh please, that's like saying Iraq's revolutionary guard had the capability of striking Cleveland, thus the US had to invade first. The Iranian people by and large are not ragtag terrorists like al-Qaeda, for one thing, who believe in all the jihadi bullshit about establishing an Islamic caliphate. (In fact, neither were Iraqis.)

I'm not talking about the people - I'm talking about the people in power. And the IRGC have total control of business, government ministries, and both the nuclear program and missile forces.

Understanding Ahmadinejad

Who is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?[1] Before his meteoric rise to power in the summer of 2005, Iran's ultra-conservative president was a relative political unknown.

Since taking office in August 2005, however, the 50-year-old Ahmadinejad has done much to demonstrate his radical credentials. He has ratcheted up the Islamic Republic's hostile rhetoric toward Israel and the United States. His government has systematically rolled back domestic freedoms and deepened its control over Iranian society. And, under his direction, the Islamic Republic has accelerated its very public march toward an atomic capability.

Yet much remains unknown about Iran's president. What drives Ahmadinejad's extremist worldview? And is he simply a pawn of the country's Supreme Leader, or the representative of a separate interest group competing for power in Tehran? As the current crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions continues to deepen, the answers to these questions have become crucial for American policymakers.

Pasdaran Power

Ahmadinejad's harsh, uncompromising political rhetoric has led many to label him as unsophisticated. But Iran's new president is no political novice. Rather, he is a seasoned strategic operator with impeccable revolutionary credentials.

As a member of the radical "Office for Strengthening Unity" during the Islamic Revolution, Ahmadinejad played a major role in planning and executing the 1980 takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran.[2] Subsequently, he became a commander in the Pasdaran, the feared clerical army created by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to serve as the "shock troops" of the Islamic Republic. In that capacity, Ahmadinejad served as an instructor for the Basij, the regime's fanatical domestic militia, during the eight-year Iran-Iraq War.[3] Afterward, Ahmadinejad served as the governor of Ardebil province, and as an organizer of Ansar-e Hezbollah, the most notorious of Iran's guruh-i fishar (vigilante or "pressure" groups),[4] until eventually becoming mayor of Tehran in 2003.

Ahmadinejad's ascendance is a reflection of the rising power of the Pasdaran in Iranian politics. Indeed, Iran's clerical army has been the principal beneficiary of the conservative re-entrenchment that has taken place in Iranian politics over the past several years. In what was widely seen as a backlash against the failed policies of president Mohammad Khatami, the February 2004 elections for Iran's parliament (majles) resulted in a rout for Iran's "reformist" camp, swinging no fewer than 130 seats to conservatives.[5] Additional gains—such as the Pasdaran's assumption of control over the country's media sector in May 2004 with the appointment of a former commander, Ezatullah Zarghami, to the post of the Islamic Republic's national press and media chief[6]—have further solidified conservative influence over Iran's political discourse. Close to a third of Iran's 290 parliamentary deputies now have links to Iran's military complex, and 42 are directly affiliated with the Pasdaran.[7]

This new crop of conservatives is distinct from other nodes of regime power in the Islamic Republic. Its members are overwhelmingly military strategists and tacticians, rather than professional clerics.[8] As such, they generally lack the political experience of Iran's clerical establishment (including the ability to safely navigate international crises). By the same token, this political elite is far less practiced in the language of taqiyyah (obfuscation) and kitman (dissimulation) that is routinely used by Iran's clerical class in their diplomatic dealings.[9] Simply put, Ahmadinejad and his ilk say what they mean and mean what they say, and do so to a much greater degree than Iranian leaders have in the past when interacting with the outside world.

The growing power of the Pasdaran has been mirrored by a concerted effort to revive the revolutionary principles espoused by its creator and inspiration, the Ayatollah Khomeini. One of Ahmadinejad's first public acts following his presidential victory was to visit Khomeini's tomb in a public show of his continuing devotion to the founder of the Islamic Republic.[10] Since then, Ahmadinejad has publicly demonstrated his commitment to Khomeini's vision. At home, in keeping with his belief that "all orders in the Islamic Republic must be based on the Qoran and the [Revolutionary] tradition,"[11] Iran's president has launched a full bore offensive on lax morals and foreign influence.[12] Abroad, meanwhile, Ahmadinejad has revived an expansionist foreign policy vision for the Islamic Republic, promising supporters that "[t]he wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world."[13]

[B]Divine Inspiration[/B]

[B][COLOR="Red"]But Ahmadinejad is more than simply a political reactionary; he is also a self-styled messianic missionary. Iran's president is a disciple of the Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, an obscure Qom cleric who preaches a radical strain of Shi'ite liberation theology. Mesbah-Yazdi is a member, and possibly the de facto head, of the Hojatieh, a powerful semi-secret religious society originally created in the 1950s as a political tool against Iran's Baha'i religious minority. But the Hojatieh was so fanatical and apocalyptic that even Khomeini eventually deemed it too extreme, formally banning the sect from political life in the early 1980s.[14][/COLOR][/B]

Like that of the Hojatieh itself, Mesbah-Yazdi's worldview is exclusionary, antidemocratic and deeply anti-Western.[15] In his writings and public speeches, he has agitated for—among other things—the rollback of individual voting rights, the targeting of opposition press and politicians, and the forcible Islamization of Iranian universities.[16] [B][COLOR="red"]Most notable, however, is his fervent belief in the imminent return of the "Hidden Imam," or Mahdi, a messiah-like religious figure from the 9th Century that many believe will return as a result of a regional conflagration.[/COLOR][/B]

Ahmadinejad has been deeply influenced by these ideas. "Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi," Ahmadinejad told a meeting of national religious leaders in November 2005. "Today, we should define our economic, cultural and political policies based on the policy of Imam Mahdi's return."[17]

He has wasted no time turning this principle into policy. Back in 2004, while still mayor of Tehran, Ahmadinejad is said to have secretly ordered an urban reconstruction plan to make the city more accessible for the Mahdi's return.[18] Since his ascension to the presidency, he has perpetuated this practice, funneling substantial federal funds (some $17 million) to renovate the Jamkaran mosque—which houses the well from which the Mahdi is expected to materialize—and opening discussions about the creation of a direct train route from there to Tehran.[19]

[B][COLOR="Red"]Since taking office, Ahmadinejad has also elevated fellow Hojatieh members to key positions of political power in the Islamic Republic's bureaucracy.[/COLOR][/B] At least four of Ahmadinejad's twenty-one cabinet members are said to be members of the Hojatieh society,[20] and one of the president's closest and most respected advisors, Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh, is reportedly a member of Mesbah-Yazdi's inner circle.[21] This confluence of forces has led to a number of controversial governmental measures in recent months, most prominent among them the October 2005 ratification of a formal cooperation pact with the Twelfth Imam.[22]

[B][COLOR="red"]The belief in the imminent return of the Mahdi has driven Ahmadinejad's foreign policy brinksmanship. According to him, "a historic war between the oppressor [Christians] and the world of Islam" is under way, and the Islamic Republic is on the front lines.[23] Thus, as Ahmadinejad told a closed-door session of the majles foreign policy and national security committee in January 2006, Iran must abandon its decade-and-a-half-old policy of "détente" with the West in favor of confrontation.[24][/COLOR][/B]

The tool of choice in this struggle appears to be Iran's nuclear program. As some commentators have suggested, Ahmadinejad's defiant pursuit of an atomic option despite mounting international pressure is grounded in the belief that their country's nuclear successes are a sign of divine intervention, and that the Islamic Republic is destined to become a nuclear-armed regional hegemon.[25]

[B]Altering the Internal Balance[/B]

Ordinarily, none of these factors would be overly important. Under the traditional structure of power within the Islamic Republic, the office of the president is an empty one, completely controlled by—and beholden to—the Supreme Leader. Indeed, despite sweeping to power on a "reformist" platform, Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, failed to enact virtually any progressive domestic measures, instead presiding over an expansion of regime repression and an acceleration of Iran's efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

To some extent, this state of affairs has persisted; certainly, Ahmadinejad could not have risen to the presidency without the endorsement and backing of Iran's Supreme Leader. [B][COLOR="red"]However, telltale signs suggest that, now that he is in office, Ahmadinejad has set about changing all that. In recent months, Iran's president has undertaken a systematic campaign to consolidate power by elevating loyalists to key governmental posts, launching a major clampdown on independent media, and reordering the relationship between the central government and Iran's regions.[/COLOR][/B] This initiative has included:

Expanded censorship. In recent months, Ahmadinejad has imposed major new restrictions on radio, television and film content, including a ban on the playing of all Western and "offensive" music on staterun radio and television stations.[26] Under his direction, Iran's Ministry of Culture has banned the publication of virtually all books.[27] Ahmadinejad has also authorized a campaign of media intimidation—one that has included threats against opposition journalists and a purge of personnel in at least one prominent news agency.[28]

Consolidation of power. [B][COLOR="red"]Ahmadinejad's ascendance has been followed by a systematic campaign to replace key governmental positions with former Pasdaran commanders loyal to his radical worldview. No fewer than 13 members of Ahmadinejad's 21-member cabinet previously held high profile positions in the Islamic Republic's clerical army—including Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki (a former Pasdaran officer responsible for running terrorist operations in Turkey), Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najar, who served as part of the Pasdaran expeditionary force in Lebanon in early 1980s, and Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad Saffar-Harandi, the former director of the Pasdaran's political bureau. In addition to cabinet appointments, Ahmadinejad also has commenced a purge of officials at the regional level, so far replacing the governors of at least six of Iran's thirty provinces.[29][/COLOR][/B]

Restructuring diplomacy. Simultaneously, Ahmadinejad has launched a major overhaul of Iran's professional diplomatic corps. At least twenty of the Islamic Republic's top diplomats—including Tehran's envoys to Paris, Berlin and London—already have been fired, and more changes are expected. The key factor in the purge, observers say, is a failure to effectively promote the president's extremist agenda.[30] Those diplomats that have remained, meanwhile, have had their autonomy severely curtailed. As part of a December 2005 directive, Ahmadinejad has imposed sweeping new restrictions on foreign travel and foreign contacts for Iran's professional diplomatic corps.[31]

Imposing ideological conformity. In a move that echoes the "cultural revolution" that followed the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Ahmadinejad's government has launched a review of the employment contracts of university-level professors hired since 1997—a step that many see as a prelude to the firing of educators deemed by the regime to be too "un-Islamic." A number of academics at some of Iran's leading higher-learning institutions (including Tehran University and Tehran's University of Alameh Tabatabai) have already been warned that their contracts will not be reviewed once they expire, and more expulsions are predicted in the near future.[32] In a similar fashion, the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to clamp down on "immoral behavior" within the Islamic Republic, enacting restrictive new social measures aimed at greater regulation of the public conduct of Iranian citizens. Among these is the imposition of a de facto dress code on the female population of Tehran, as well as an expansion of the activities of the Islamic Republic's "morals police."[33]

The impact of these changes has been pronounced. In recent months, the U.S. Department of State and the Congressionally-mandated U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom have both noted a deepening of repression and religious persecution within the Islamic Republic.[34] Iran has likewise begun taking new steps to isolate its population from foreign influence—among them the creation of new Internet control measures and the allocation of millions of dollars for domestic propaganda efforts.[35] Most significant of all, however, is mounting evidence that on a number of key topics, chief among them the nuclear issue, the Iranian presidency appears to have begun to emerge as an independent foreign policy actor in its own right.

[B]Implications for American Policy[/B]

For American policymakers, the changes underway within the Islamic Republic have at least two concrete implications. The first is military. Some analysts have responded to the current crisis over the Islamic Republic's atomic efforts by suggesting that it would be possible for the United States to deter a nuclear-armed Iran.[36] In making this assertion, they have relied on the experience of the Cold War, during which the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation created a stable "balance of terror" between Moscow and Washington.

Such assumptions, however, are deeply flawed. Cold War deterrence functioned successfully because a series of conditions (good communication, rational decisionmaking, well-informed strategic planning, and, most importantly, a shared assumption that war should be avoided) were presumed to exist between the United States and the Soviet Union. None of these are present in America's current relationship with Iran, indicating that the risk of miscalculation by either Tehran or Washington is far too great for a successful bilateral deterrence relationship. [B][COLOR="red"]Moreover, Ahmadinejad's apocalyptic worldview suggests that at least one segment of the Iranian leadership is now seeking to foment precisely such a nuclear confrontation—effectively making Iran "undeterrable" in the traditional sense of the word.[/COLOR][/B]

The second has to do with religious authority. Unlike both of his predecessors, Iran's new president is not a cleric but a military man, with a distinct constituency of his own—one that he can marshal in the event of an internal power struggle. Indeed, jitters over Ahmadinejad's policies and potential independence have already sparked a backlash in some corners of Iran's clerical establishment, most noticeably through the strengthening of the powers of his political opponent and rival, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, in his capacity as head of the country's main arbitration body, the Expediency Council.[37] Listening devices have also reportedly been found in a number of key regional and federal offices that have close contact with Ahmadinejad and his cabinet.[38] This suggests that at least some in Iran no longer believe a future struggle for political dominance within the Iranian leadership to be entirely out of the question.

Should such a struggle emerge, its outcome is likely to be dictated by where Ahmadinejad places his religious loyalties. From the 1979 Islamic Revolution until his death a decade later, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini served simultaneously as the Islamic Republic's rahbar (Supreme Leader) and its marja'taqlid (model of religious emulation). The first post was political, the second spiritual. Khomeini's death brought with it a bifurcation of these functions. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assumed the post of rahbar, but has weathered repeated challenges to his religious authority from more senior clerics. Ahmadinejad's mentor, Mesbah-Yazdi, is such a challenger, and has openly questioned Khamenei's religious credentials.[39] Indeed, some have speculated that Mesbah-Yazdi is himself a contender for the Islamic Republic's top post, and could be conspiring to use the upcoming Fall elections of the country's powerful Assembly of Experts, which selects the Supreme Leader and supervises his activities, to supplant Khamenei.[40] In the event of such a struggle, it is not at all clear on what side Ahmadinejad and his followers in the Pasdaran would find themselves.

Given the foregoing, it would be safe to say that Ahmadinejad's rise to power has significantly complicated American options vis-à-vis Iran. But it has also served to clarify them. Iran's new president is plain-spoken in his radicalism, and open about his intentions. Policymakers in Washington would do well to take him at his word.

1. An early version of this paper appeared in National Review Online on January 19, 2006 under the title "False Prophet."
2. "Profile: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad," Al-Jazeera (Doha), June 19, 2005, [url]http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/91109A0C-83F4-438F-9CC1-52DF6936CC6B.htm[/url].
3. Matthias Kuntzel, "Ahmadinejad's Demons," The New Republic, April 14, 2006, [url]http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20060424&s=kuntzel042406[/url].
4. Ibid.
5. In 2000, reformists won 189 of 290 seats in the majles, far outstripping their conservative counterparts, who secured just 54. Four years later, the roles were reversed, with conservatives capturing 190 seats to the reformists' 50. See, respectively, the CIA World Factbook 2003 and the CIA World Factbook 2006. This outcome was at least partially manipulated; ahead of the preliminary round of voting, Iran's powerful Guardian Council had disqualified 3,533 of 8,144 viable candidates, most of them reformists. Mahan Abedin, "Iran After the Elections," Middle East Intelligence Bulletin 6, no. 2/3 (February/March 2004), [url]http://www.meib.org/articles/0402_iran1.htm[/url].
6. Kamal Nazer Yasin, "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Make Bid for Increasing Power," Eurasia Insight, May 19, 2004, [url]http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav051904a.shtml[/url].
7. "The Revolutionary Guards Are Back," The Economist, June 19, 2004, [url]http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2773140[/url].
8. Some analysts have dubbed this group the "war generation" in a reflection of their formative experiences during the eight year Iran-Iraq War. See Ray Takeyh, "A Profile in Defiance," The National Interest 83, Spring 2006, 16-21.
9. Amir Taheri, "No Change in Iran's Strategic Goals," Gulf News (Dubai), November 11, 2005, [url]http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/RegionNF.asp?ArticleID=189738[/url].
10. "President-Elect Renews Allegiance with Imam Khomeini," IRNA (Tehran), June 26, 2005, [url]http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-16/0506260277120702.htm[/url].
11. Mehrdad Sheibani, "Goodbye to the Republic," Rooz (Tehran), August 11, 2005, [url]http://www.roozonline.com/english/009328.shtml[/url].
12. For an in-depth analysis, see Mehdi Khalaji, "Tehran's Renewed War on Culture," Washington Institute for Near East Policy Policywatch No. 1054, November 21, 2005, [url]http://www.washingtoninstitute.org[/url] /templateC05.php?CID=2405.
13. "Iran's Ahmadinejad Looks to Export 'New Islamic Revolution,'" Agence France Presse, June 30, 2005, [url]http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=16353[/url].
14. Kenneth R. Timmerman, "Zealotry Puts Iran on Apocalyptic Path," The Australian (Canberra), January 16, 2006, [url]http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,17831552-31477,00.html[/url].
15. Colin Freeman, "The Rise of Prof 'Crocodile' – a Hardliner to Terrify Hardliners," Telegraph (London), November 20, 2005, [url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/11/20/wiran220.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/11/20/ixnewstop.html[/url].
16. Shervin Omidvar, "Ay Yazdi: Universities Must Become Islamic," Rooz (Tehran), December 15, 2005, [url]http://www.roozonline.com/english/012534.shtml;[/url] Hossein Bastani, "Kill Them, There Is No Need for a Trial," Rooz (Tehran), January 16, 2006, [url]http://www.roozonline.com/english/013494.shtml[/url].
17. As cited in Paul Hughes, "Iran President Paves the Way for Arabs' Imam Return," Reuters, November 17, 2005.
18. Scott Peterson, "Waiting for the Rapture in Iran," Christian Science Monitor, December 21, 2005, [url]http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1221/p01s04-wome.html[/url].
19. Ibid.
20. Special Correspondent, "Shi'ite Supremacists Emerge from Iran's Shadows," Asia Times (Hong Kong), September 9, 2005, [url]http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI09Ak01.html[/url].
21. Arash Mahdavi, "The Man Behind the President," Rooz (Tehran), November 6, 2005, [url]http://www.roozonline.com/english/011447.shtml[/url].
22. Kamal Tehrani, "An Agreement with the Absent Imam," Rooz (Tehran), October 17, 2005, [url]http://roozonline.com/11english/010974.shtml[/url].
23. "Ahmadinejad: Wipe Israel Off Map," Al-Jazeera (Doha), October 26, 2005, [url]http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/15E6BF77-6F91-46EE-A4B5-A3CE0E9957EA.htm[/url].
24. "Iran's President Criticizes Past 16 Years of Détente with West," VOA News, January 3, 2006, [url]http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-01-03-voa52.cfm[/url].
25. Amir Taheri, "The Frightening Truth of Why Iran Wants the Bomb," Sunday Telegraph (London), April 16, 2006, [url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/16/do1609.xml&sSheet=/portal/2006/04/16/ixportal.html[/url].
26. "Iran President Bans Western Music," BBC (London), December 19, 2005, [url]http://news.bbc.co.uk[/url] /2 /hi /middle_east/4543720.stm.
27. Maryam Kashani, "The Walls of the Banned City," Rooz (Tehran), January 8, 2006, [url]http://roozonline.com/english/013225.shtml[/url].
28. "The Inadequate Security of Journalists," E'temad (Tehran), April 12, 2006; Shahram Rafizadeh, "Darker Days Ahead for Journalists," Rooz (Tehran), April 18, 2006, [url]http://roozonline.com/english/015056.shtml[/url].
29. "Iran: Purge of Moderates Extends to Governors and Banks," Adnkronos International (Rome), November 11, 2005, [url]http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?cat=Politics&loid=8.0.227843672&par=0[/url].
30. Ramita Navai and Richard Beeston, "Iran Sacks Diplomats in Purge of Reformers," Times of London, November 2, 2005, [url]http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-1854018,00.html[/url].
31. "Iran: New Limits on Travel Abroad," Adnkronos International, December 19, 2005, [url]http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?cat=Politics&loid=8.0.241132494&par=0[/url].
32. Hamid Irani, "Hard-line Iranian Government Reviews University Professors Contracts," Rooz (Tehran), March 2, 2006, [url]http://roozonline.com/11english/014354.shtml[/url].
33. "Iran Moves to Stop 'Immoral Behavior,'" Spiegel Online (Berlin), May 9, 2006, [url]http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,415236,00.html[/url].
34. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, "Iran," Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2005, March 8, 2006, [url]http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2005/61688.htm;[/url] Press Release, Press Release, "Iran: USCIRF Concerned Over Deteriorating Situation for Religious Minorities," United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, February 24, 2006, [url]http://www.uscirf.gov/mediaroom/press/2006/february/02242006_IranDeterioratingSituation.html[/url].
35. "Iran Allocates $15M for Anti-U.S. Budget," Associated Press, March 13, 2006; Meysam Salehian, "Iran Jams Satellite Broadcasts," Rooz (Tehran), May 2, 2006, [url]http://roozonline.com/english/015293.shtml[/url].
36. See, for example, Barry R. Posen, "We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran," New York Times, February 27, 2006, [url]http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/opinion/27posen.html[/url].
37. Ayelet Savyon, "The 'Second Islamic Revolution' in Iran: Power Struggle at the Top," Middle East Media Research Institute Inquiry and Analysis 253, November 15, 2005, [url]http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=ia&ID=IA25305[/url].
38. "Bugging State Buildings," Ya Lesarat ol-Hoseyn (Tehran), March 22, 2006.
39. Richard Ernsberger, Jr., "Religion Versus Reality," Newsweek, December 12, 2005, [url]http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10313618/site/newsweek/[/url].
40. Ibid.

http://www.ilanberman.com/6013/understanding-ahmadinejad

[CosmicRocker]

So now you're scared that an extremist group will launch a nuclear strike? Oh please, that's like saying Iraq's revolutionary guard had the capability of striking Cleveland, thus the US had to invade first. The Iranian people by and large are not ragtag terrorists like al-Qaeda, for one thing, who believe in all the jihadi bullshit about establishing an Islamic caliphate. (In fact, neither were Iraqis.)
The people are CLEARLY not in control of the regime.
I agree, the idea of a Shiite Crescent is not about a caliphate, but it IS about hegemonious control of the region.

I expect Iran to flex it's political muscle, and it's sphere of Influence, as China is doing now with it's new fleet, and massive armies, as any nation would desire.

What I don't 100% exactly expect is a completely rational course of action by some very extreme leadership.
99% sure no first strike, but there is 0 % room for error here.

And they do support so called " terrorists groups", although I think Hezbollah etc. are more religious driven to aquire power than practice jihad.

They are very shakey, have repeatedly dodged IAEA protocol, and are not above using blackmail ( like theUSmbassy hostages) , so they canoot be trusted.
So far they have even rejected Obamas overatures.
They really can't be allowed to have nuclear ballistic missles.

[Bill Cosby]

I agree w/ your observations...........

It can't be allowed but it may none the less still happen...

Why is there no pressure on Israel to give up her shit???

Wasn't much crying about India & wackistan either........... & now there is none........

[CosmicRocker]

I agree w/ your observations...........

It can't be allowed but it may none the less still happen...

Why is there no pressure on Israel to give up her shit???

Wasn't much crying about India & wackistan either........... & now there is none........
you know the answer, if you take an analytic p.o.v.

Israel has never attacked any country pre-emptively; except to my knowledge the Iraqi nuclear reactor by air fighter awhile ago.

Iran hasn't either, but they hold a subversive, hegemonistic desires
India and Paki are aimed at each other.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Clinton: Hard for Iran to make peaceful nuke claim
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090927/..._pe/us_us_iran
Sun Sep 27, 3:46 pm ET
WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton says she doesn't believe Iran can convince the U.S. and other world powers that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, putting Tehran on course for tougher economic penalties beyond the current "leaky sanctions."

Defense Secretary Robert Gates played down the effectiveness of military strikes against Iran's newly disclosed secret uranium-enriching facility. Gates and Clinton said economic and diplomatic pressure would have a better chance of changing Iranian policies.

"The reality is, there is no military option that does anything more than buy time," he told CNN's "State of the Union" in an interview broadcast Sunday.

"The Iranians are in a very bad spot now because of this deception, in terms of all of the great powers.
And there obviously is the opportunity for severe additional sanctions."

The nuclear program, which Iran claims is designed to generate electricity, is at the top of the agenda at a meeting Thursday in Geneva involving diplomats from Iran, the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany.

The Iranians must "present convincing evidence as to the purpose of their nuclear program.
We don't believe that they can present convincing evidence, that it's only for peaceful purposes, but we are going to put them to the test," Clinton told CBS' "Face the Nation."

She told the Iranian government: "Don't assert it, prove it. ... They can't say anything because they've said that for years, but they can open their entire system to the kind of extensive investigation that the facts call for."

"If we don't get the answers that we are expecting and the changes in behavior that we're looking for, then we will work with our partners to move toward sanctions," Clinton added.

Tensions grew with the announcement Sunday that Iran successfully test-fired short-range missiles during military drills by the elite Revolutionary Guard.

Gates emphasized China's key role in winning additional penalties against Iran. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, including China, would have to agree to new sanctions.
The United States, Britain and France support additional economic conditions and Russia now appears favorable. But China relies heavily on Iranian oil imports and remains reluctant to give its assent.

"China's participation is clearly important," Gates said.

Gates said further penalties could cause Iran to change its nuclear policies because it already faces serious economic problems.

Clinton spoke of "exploring how you broaden and deepen sanctions. Now sanctions are already in place as you know but like many sanction regimes they're leaky."

The defense chief described the political turmoil under Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "simmering," and noted that unemployment among young people in the country is about 40 percent.

"It's clear in the aftermath of the election that there are some fairly deep fissures in Iranian society and politics and — and probably even in the leadership," he said.
"And, frankly, this is one of the reasons why I think additional and especially severe economic sanctions could have some real impact because we know that the sanctions that have already been placed on the country have had an impact."

The Pentagon chief added, "We are seeing some changes or some divisions in the Iranian leadership and in society that we really haven't seen in the 30 years since the revolution."

It is critical that world powers persuade the Iranians that their pursuit of nuclear weapons will undermine their country's security, Gates said.

This week's meeting is the first step to see if Tehran can change policy to the satisfaction of the world's powers.
If that fails, Gates said, then "you begin to move in the direction of severe sanctions. ... I think that severe sanctions would have the potential" of changing their policies.

"How long do I think we have? I would say somewhere between one to three years," he told ABC's "This Week."

[Bill Cosby]

They have attacked pre-emptively;.. They are threatening to do so now....

Who has Iran attacked????

[CosmicRocker]

They have attacked pre-emptively;.. They are threatening to do so now....

Who has Iran attacked????
did I say they did??
this is what my last post said:

Iran hasn't either,[EDIT} inferred is the word attacked] but they hold a subversive, hegemonistic desires
India and Paki are aimed at each other.

Cmon Bill, rewad the whole article i posted from Gates and Clinton.
I'm not calling for a " surgical strike" against Iran, not yet.
I'm not even sure that is a achievable military possibility.

I want unified severe sanctions, the same thing Brits, Russia, France, and the US has called for.

[Bill Cosby]

did I say they did??
this is what my last post said:



Cmon Bill, rewad the whole article i posted from Gates and Clinton.
I'm not calling for a " surgical strike" against Iran, not yet.
I'm not even sure that is a achievable military possibility.

I want unified severe sanctions, the same thing Brits, Russia, France, and the US has called for.

Israel has never attacked any country preemptively---->>>> YES THEY HAVE... That is what I was replying to..... Look it up... :thumbsup:

You still have not said a word about the other "bad ppl" w/ bombs.... Your indignation & demonizing is reserved for Iran............... Just like the smart ppl on tv want you to think... :thumbsup:

Threatening to annihilate the entire Persian civilization makes some feel self-righteous & all that, but not me............

I don't see or hear what the smart tv pundits & entertainers have to say....

I look @ the bigger picture~ the bigger problem here........ You my brother are free to disagree w/ me if you like, hell I aint happy about how I feel about this........ I wish I could be PC here & go along but I can't & stated the reasons why....

We, as is often the case between us can agree on lots of things but not everything... We can both live w/ that.......... :D

Hopefully nothing bad will happen & he will get his ass tossed out & someone more acceptable to the west will come along & appease the west & restore their air of confidence & superiority....

Or of course the fucking nut could come out tomorrow & say we got three bombs already,,,,,,,,,,,,,, The game is over & you have some type of parity for now.......... Until some Arab wants one.......... Then another one etc.... etcl.... etc...

[Smurf-Herder]

Hopefully nothing bad will happen & he will get his ass tossed out & someone more acceptable to the west will come along & appease the west & restore their air of confidence & superiority....

Or of course the fucking nut could come out tomorrow & say we got three bombs already,,,,,,,,,,,,,, The game is over & you have some type of parity for now.......... Until some Arab wants one.......... Then another one etc.... etcl.... etc...


Then again, he could always just hit every major city in Europe one day, with hidden missiles and nukes they've kept out of our sight; to bring about his catastrophic war that hastens the return of the Imam Mahdi.

[nobull]

I'm not talking about the people - I'm talking about the people in power. And the IRGC have total control of business, government ministries, and both the nuclear program and missile forces.

That's quite a voluminous history lesson. There's no doubt that the IRCG is a militant organization with economic and political clout, but it still takes orders directly from the Supreme Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. Following the first election in a decade where the IRGC was strongly opposed, Khamenei was plenty worried. These guys aren't stupid. They know that a missile strike ANYWHERE will only set the country back another hundred years or so, and the population in Iran which is getting younger and lean toward democratization over dictatorship (which is really all the IRCG/Achmedinejad is) will eventually win out.

There is also the fact that Iran does not have the support of other Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, which ironically just in recent days has offered Israel airspace should they go ahead with their own plans for a strike on Iran. In other words, Iran would be even further isolated from the global community, even from its own Arab neighbors. I seriously doubt Khamenei is willing to risk that.

MY concern is that Israel will indeed launch an attack and what America's response to it will be. Right now, I think it's just Netanyahu's sabre-rattling techniques that is scaring everyone.

[nobull]

Then again, he could always just hit every major city in Europe one day, with hidden missiles and nukes they've kept out of our sight; to bring about his catastrophic war that hastens the return of the Imam Mahdi.

If that happens, I don't think anyone would care. If an apocalypse is what they want, survivors will take care of their own family needs first by digging through rubble rather than looking to some supreme government to help out, because there would BE none left anyway.

[Bill Cosby]

Then again, he could always just hit every major city in Europe one day, with hidden missiles and nukes they've kept out of our sight; to bring about his catastrophic war that hastens the return of the Imam Mahdi.

& you base that on what???

Utter nonsense IMHO...............

He has a lot more to worry about locally then firing off missles @ Warsaw or Prague..

[Mason66]

The story came out yesterday that Obama was told about this facility during the transition.

Why the feigned outrage now for the cameras?

[nobull]

The story came out yesterday that Obama was told about this facility during the transition.

Why the feigned outrage now for the cameras?

It was perfect timing. Achmedinejad was completely taken off guard. He didn't know that we know! Which put the US in the driver's seat.

[Smurf-Herder]

& you base that on what???

Utter nonsense IMHO...............

He has a lot more to worry about locally then firing off missles @ Warsaw or Prague..

I base that on the articles I've posted in this thread - along with a lot more I've read over the past seven years.